# Anglo American (AAL.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AAL.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 4,060.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.52×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.15×

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.26×

- FY2021: 0.42×

- FY2022: 0.31×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: -0.01×

- FY2025: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 14.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 14.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 53.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 17.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.0%

- FY2017: 15.5%

- FY2018: 15.3%

- FY2019: 17.2%

- FY2020: 14.4%

- FY2021: 38.7%

- FY2022: 22.4%

- FY2023: 7.0%

- FY2024: -0.6%

- FY2025: 9.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.33×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$2.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $6.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 6.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 0.33×

- FY2023: -1.70×

- FY2024: 1.90×

- FY2025: 1.32×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.3% vs 7.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1.22 to -2.53 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Market cap gain: $29B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$3.75

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.22

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$2.53

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.76

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $123M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $20B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.22

- FY2017: $2.47

- FY2018: $2.74

- FY2019: $2.78

- FY2020: $1.66

- FY2021: $6.87

- FY2022: $3.68

- FY2023: $0.23

- FY2024: -$2.53

- FY2025: -$3.58

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -16.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.75×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.6%

- FY2017: -8.9%

- FY2018: -6.9%

- FY2019: -7.3%

- FY2020: -7.2%

- FY2021: -12.4%

- FY2022: -7.8%

- FY2023: -9.3%

- FY2024: -17.2%

- FY2025: -16.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Up 97% since Oct 2023 · "FTSE 100 up as Anglo American strikes Teck deal" (uk.finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2025) · sales -30.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.024Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -30.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: $21B 

- FY2017: $26B 

- FY2018: $28B 

- FY2019: $30B 

- FY2020: $25B 

- FY2021: $42B 

- FY2022: $35B 

- FY2023: $31B 

- FY2024: $27B 

- FY2025: $19B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 39.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 52.4% 

- FY2017: 53.2% 

- FY2018: 51.3% 

- FY2019: 54.0% 

- FY2020: 62.5% 

- FY2021: 68.1% 

- FY2022: 62.1% 

- FY2023: 49.1% 

- FY2025: 39.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are USD 18.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2025: revenue 18921828000; grossProfit 7405170000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39.1% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 14.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 49.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09958757151054354],[2017,0.15503011142847517],[2018,0.15257761858335625],[2019,0.17247887591915828],[2020,0.14397493465585418],[2021,0.3870497517788308],[2022,0.22417624157250024],[2023,0.07030336611719075],[2024,-0.005896294356422679],[2025,0.09200270888437788]]; median 0.1482762766196052. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 104.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2016: growth capex 280000000; upkeep 2138000000; owner earnings 1594000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17565872020075282.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2278000000; owner earnings 3278000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2018: growth capex 804000000; upkeep 2596000000; owner earnings 3549000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2265426880811496.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2019: growth capex 1941000000; upkeep 2812000000; owner earnings 3436200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5648681683254758.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2021: growth capex 3093000000; upkeep 2715000000; owner earnings 8387000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3687850244425897.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 6320000000; owner earnings 1482186586.9853916. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,5322000000],[2017,618000000],[2018,1291000000],[2019,1422000000],[2020,904000000],[2021,4047000000],[2022,3549000000],[2023,1564000000],[2024,1026000000],[2025,351217223]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 104139989 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AAL.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 7.000000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Depending on permit approval, first production could follow from the mid-2030s.

- Source: https://www.angloamerican.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group-v9/PLC/investors/annual-reporting/2025/aa-annual-report-full-2025.pdf (filed ); Beyond that, studies and permitting are under way for a fourth processing line in the plant and mine expansion that would add up to c.150,000 tpa (our 44% share) of production. Timing of that expansion is subject to the permitting process; depending on permit approval, first production could follow from the mid-2030s. In parall [Noncontiguous filing excerpt] ring Quebrada Blanca operation, owned and operated by Teck Resources.

### What the price says

The price is 3.4 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:51.845Z); Closing price 4060 GBX; reporting-to-trading FX 75.34943299551671; FY2025 annual sales per share 16.06173152845886; price multiple 3.354699952774647. FY2025 cash earnings/share -4.735194806925571. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-11: GBX 1,157.04 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 1,132.63 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 1,325.96 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 1,240.52 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 1,190.73 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,080.39 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,007.16 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 999.84 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,222.95 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,369.41 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,307.89 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 1,386.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,326.93 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,512.94 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,668.29 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,738.59 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,621.81 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,669.07 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,754.80 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,654.81 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,691.91 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 1,505.23 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,682.35 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 1,635.67 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,529.25 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,706.56 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,896.96 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 1,956.23 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 2,005.05 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 1,934.65 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 1,850.29 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 2,191.54 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 1,990.89 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 1,732.34 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 1,827.05 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 1,934.84 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 1,978.68 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,121.73 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,938.75 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 1,749.52 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,382.98 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 1,381.81 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 1,660.47 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 1,825.29 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,826.07 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,789.36 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 1,831.54 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 1,768.46 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 2,161.27 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 2,367.29 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,357.04 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,707.08 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,775.43 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,997.56 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 3,061.03 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,817.71 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 3,129.64 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 3,010.46 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 2,572.48 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 2,729.43 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 2,719.13 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 2,958.47 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 3,166.43 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 3,750.08 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 3,896.73 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 3,517.60 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 3,812.86 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 2,880.98 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 2,893.73 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 2,729.92 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 2,683.32 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 2,558.74 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 3,342.50 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 3,174.77 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 3,400.38 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 2,829.48 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 2,626.92 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 2,398.36 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 2,181.09 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 2,190.41 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 2,348.34 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 2,060.43 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 2,222.29 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 2,056.51 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 2,101.14 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 1,933.01 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 1,860.42 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 1,668.55 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 1,914.57 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 2,583.76 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 2,465.56 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 2,454.28 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 2,305.18 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 2,166.86 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 2,382.67 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 2,354.22 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 2,472.42 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 2,318.91 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 2,335.09 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 2,291.44 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 2,104.09 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 1,990.30 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 2,162.94 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 2,150.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 2,148.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 2,278.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 2,785.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 2,875.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 2,851.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 3,085.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 3,408.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 3,701.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 3,179.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 3,586.50 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 3,988.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 3,697.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 3,733.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 4,269.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 4,060.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 4,120.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2018: low GBX 1,658.54 per share, central GBX 1,838.92 per share, high GBX 2,079.04 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 2,815.19 per share, central GBX 3,499.91 per share, high GBX 4,031.93 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 2,338.90 per share, central GBX 2,603.35 per share, high GBX 2,955.39 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 4,296.69 per share, central GBX 5,308.06 per share, high GBX 6,115.26 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 3,293.07 per share, central GBX 3,981.94 per share, high GBX 4,585.00 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 938.24 per share, central GBX 1,058.66 per share, high GBX 1,218.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations