# Adt (ADT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ADT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:14.298Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $6.86 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 0.72×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.25×

- FY2025: 0.26×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.25×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -13.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 49.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 14.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.5%

- FY2017: 3.0%

- FY2018: 3.2%

- FY2019: 3.4%

- FY2020: 1.8%

- FY2021: 0.6%

- FY2022: 5.6%

- FY2023: 13.4%

- FY2024: 14.4%

- FY2025: 14.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 5.49×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $889M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -2.46×

- FY2022: 3.61×

- FY2023: -2.48×

- FY2024: 2.31×

- FY2025: 2.33×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.0% vs 14.4%

- Per-share earnings: -0.11 to 0.53 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.5%

- Market cap gain: $2.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.64

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.53

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.37

- Average buyback yield: 10.8%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$970M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.84

- FY2017: $0.53

- FY2018: -$0.81

- FY2019: -$0.57

- FY2020: -$0.77

- FY2021: -$0.40

- FY2022: $0.31

- FY2023: -$0.17

- FY2024: $0.53

- FY2025: $0.68

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.89×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.16×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.57×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.7%

- FY2017: -7.3%

- FY2018: -13.9%

- FY2019: -14.3%

- FY2020: -12.4%

- FY2021: -11.8%

- FY2022: -8.9%

- FY2023: -11.4%

- FY2024: -8.6%

- FY2025: -8.1%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 27% since Nov 2022 · "ADT (ADT) Nosedives 11% as Earnings, Outlook Disappoint" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +0.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:14.608Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-05-12: ADT Q1 Earnings Call: Higher Installation Revenue and AI Investments Drive Outperformance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adt-q1-earnings-call-higher-095354248.html))

- 2026-03-03: ADT (ADT) Nosedives 11% as Earnings, Outlook Disappoint ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adt-adt-nosedives-11-earnings-062642683.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703056/000170305626000022/adt-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2017: $4.3B 

- FY2018: $4.6B 

- FY2019: $5.1B 

- FY2020: $5.3B 

- FY2021: $5.3B 

- FY2022: $6.4B 

- FY2023: $4.7B 

- FY2024: $4.9B 

- FY2025: $5.1B 

- FY2026: $5.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 49.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703056/000170305626000022/adt-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: 33.8% 

- FY2017: 36.1% 

- FY2018: 35.1% 

- FY2019: 32.5% 

- FY2020: 33.6% 

- FY2021: 32.3% 

- FY2022: 54.8% 

- FY2023: 51.1% 

- FY2024: 50.7% 

- FY2025: 49.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in security & protection services; annual sales are USD 5.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703056/000170305626000022/adt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 5128607000; grossProfit 2525866000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ADT.US: ADT Inc. provides security, interactive, and smart home solutions in the United States. The company offers burglar and life safety alarms, smart security cameras, smart home automation systems, and video surveillance systems to detect intrusion; control access; sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, leaks, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal medical emergencies, such as injuries or unanticipated falls. It also provides routine maintenance and installation services for upgraded or additional equipment; and personal emergency response system products and services to sustain independent living, detect when a fall occurs, and provide protection while on the go with geolocation capability. In addition, the company offers ADT+ app, an interactive technology platform; Trusted Neighbor, which allows customers to grant access to their homes through homeowner-authorized credentials and the ADT+ app; automation and smart home solutions, which allow for the remote monitoring and managing of spaces through smartphone applications, customized web portals, and touchscreen panels; and professionally installed and DIY security and smart home solutions. Further, it operates monitoring centers that provide professional and outsourced monitoring services; and field and call centers. The company sells its products under the ADT, ADT Pulse, and ADT+ brands. It serves the residential and small business security and automation markets comprising owners and renters of single-family homes, apartments, and small businesses owners through customer referrals, door-to-door activities, lead generation partners, retail and e-commerce channels, network of field sales and service offices, third-party independent dealers, and authorized dealers. The company was formerly known as Prime Security Services Parent, Inc. and changed its name to ADT Inc. in September 2017. ADT Inc. was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 49.3% to 51.1% during 2023–25; it earns 3.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 51.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 50.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703056/000170305626000022/adt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 49.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.014666242633505543],[2017,0.030176865266374225],[2018,0.03170586071785225],[2019,0.03411435678755435],[2020,0.017925593858508605],[2021,0.005738936707476671],[2022,0.05553461515702352],[2023,0.1337677750578831],[2024,0.14407698856924164],[2025,0.14779291327121405]]; median 0.032910108752703296. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back USD 607 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 547093000; owner earnings 176287000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 714000000; owner earnings 1491926000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 703000000; owner earnings 618774000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 701000000; owner earnings 944060000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 575000000; owner earnings 803397000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 863000000; owner earnings 837048000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 912000000; owner earnings 1081575000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 806888000; owner earnings 414812000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 686951000; owner earnings 1158798000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703056/000170305626000022/adt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 572000000; owner earnings 1391185000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,750000000],[2018,79439000],[2019,565000000],[2020,109000000],[2021,116000000],[2022,127000000],[2023,128587000],[2024,182266000],[2025,187000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703056/000170305626000022/adt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 607000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ADT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.873 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703056/000170305626000022/adt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); n, consistent with the prior year, reflecting the sale of our Multifamily Business, offset by an increase in average prices.

Macroeconomic and Other Trends and Uncertainties

We may also experience an increase in other costs associated with factors such as (i) offering a wider variety of products and services; (ii) providing a greater mix of interactive and smart home solutions; (iii) replacing or upgrading certain system components due to technological advancements, cybersecurity upgrades, software or hardware end-of-life, or otherwise; (iv) supply chain disruptions or other impacts such as tariffs or trade restrictions; (v) inflationary pressures on costs such as materials, labor, and fuel; and (vi) other changes in prices, interest rates, or terms from our suppliers or vendors, or third party lenders. We aim to continuously evaluate and respond to changes in the above to drive efficiencies and meet customer demands.

We are currently monitoring, and will continue to monitor, macroeconomic trends and uncertainties such as the ongoing global memory chip shortage, key components of inflation, the status and effects of recently implemented or threatened tariffs and other trade restrictions, as well as potential changes to these tariffs or the imposition of reciprocal or other tariffs or trade restrictions by other countries. Any of these may have negative consequences for our supply chain due to price increases from our vendors or suppliers, or supply chain delays. At this time, we do not anticipate material negative impacts that cannot be mitigated through arrangements with our vendors and suppliers, price increases to our customers, or other actions, but there is no guarantee that we will be able to successfully mitigate the negative effects of any such macroeconomic trends and uncertainties. We are also unable at this time to determine any future negative impacts from reduced consumer spending as a result of inflationary or other pressures or uncertainty that may result from the imposition of current or future tariffs or other trade restrictions.

As part of our response to changes or pressures in the current macroeconomic environment, we have been evaluating, and continue to evaluate, cost-saving opportunities such as reducing headcount or our physical facilities footprint when appropriate, and reducing non-essential spend. While we have experienced some increase in costs as a result of inflation, we have, for the most part, been able to offset the rising costs through cost-saving opportunities, as well as price increases to our customers.

In addition, hurricanes, wildfires, and other natural disasters impacting certain areas in which we operate may result in service, sales, and installation disruptions to certain of our customers. As such, we evaluate the financial and business impacts these events have or may have in the future. We have not 

### What the price says

The price is 1.2 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Closing price 6.86 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 5.8279625; price multiple 1.1770837578313176. FY2025 cash earnings/share 1.5808920454545454. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-01: $12.48 per share

- 2018-02: $10.56 per share

- 2018-03: $7.93 per share

- 2018-04: $8.91 per share

- 2018-05: $7.52 per share

- 2018-06: $8.65 per share

- 2018-07: $9.01 per share

- 2018-08: $8.95 per share

- 2018-09: $9.39 per share

- 2018-10: $7.74 per share

- 2018-11: $7.81 per share

- 2018-12: $6.01 per share

- 2019-01: $7.22 per share

- 2019-02: $8.00 per share

- 2019-03: $6.39 per share

- 2019-04: $6.59 per share

- 2019-05: $5.85 per share

- 2019-06: $6.12 per share

- 2019-07: $6.35 per share

- 2019-08: $4.76 per share

- 2019-09: $6.27 per share

- 2019-10: $7.74 per share

- 2019-11: $9.24 per share

- 2019-12: $7.93 per share

- 2020-01: $6.20 per share

- 2020-02: $6.39 per share

- 2020-03: $4.32 per share

- 2020-04: $5.73 per share

- 2020-05: $7.08 per share

- 2020-06: $7.98 per share

- 2020-07: $8.61 per share

- 2020-08: $10.65 per share

- 2020-09: $8.17 per share

- 2020-10: $6.59 per share

- 2020-11: $7.77 per share

- 2020-12: $7.85 per share

- 2021-01: $9.03 per share

- 2021-02: $7.61 per share

- 2021-03: $8.44 per share

- 2021-04: $9.20 per share

- 2021-05: $10.34 per share

- 2021-06: $10.79 per share

- 2021-07: $10.49 per share

- 2021-08: $8.56 per share

- 2021-09: $8.09 per share

- 2021-10: $8.35 per share

- 2021-11: $8.31 per share

- 2021-12: $8.41 per share

- 2022-01: $7.59 per share

- 2022-02: $7.31 per share

- 2022-03: $7.59 per share

- 2022-04: $6.85 per share

- 2022-05: $7.48 per share

- 2022-06: $6.15 per share

- 2022-07: $7.30 per share

- 2022-08: $7.29 per share

- 2022-09: $7.49 per share

- 2022-10: $8.46 per share

- 2022-11: $9.34 per share

- 2022-12: $9.07 per share

- 2023-01: $8.79 per share

- 2023-02: $7.54 per share

- 2023-03: $7.23 per share

- 2023-04: $6.70 per share

- 2023-05: $5.69 per share

- 2023-06: $6.03 per share

- 2023-07: $6.38 per share

- 2023-08: $6.42 per share

- 2023-09: $6.00 per share

- 2023-10: $5.66 per share

- 2023-11: $5.87 per share

- 2023-12: $6.82 per share

- 2024-01: $6.53 per share

- 2024-02: $7.26 per share

- 2024-03: $6.72 per share

- 2024-04: $6.50 per share

- 2024-05: $7.11 per share

- 2024-06: $7.60 per share

- 2024-07: $7.78 per share

- 2024-08: $7.29 per share

- 2024-09: $7.23 per share

- 2024-10: $7.20 per share

- 2024-11: $7.62 per share

- 2024-12: $6.91 per share

- 2025-01: $7.68 per share

- 2025-02: $8.19 per share

- 2025-03: $8.14 per share

- 2025-04: $8.02 per share

- 2025-05: $8.32 per share

- 2025-06: $8.47 per share

- 2025-07: $8.35 per share

- 2025-08: $8.71 per share

- 2025-09: $8.71 per share

- 2025-10: $8.84 per share

- 2025-11: $8.25 per share

- 2025-12: $8.07 per share

- 2026-01: $8.00 per share

- 2026-02: $8.02 per share

- 2026-03: $6.57 per share

- 2026-04: $7.53 per share

- 2026-05: $6.71 per share

- 2026-06: $6.50 per share

- 2026-07: $7.64 per share

- 2026-08: $7.39 per share

- 2026-09: $6.08 per share

- 2026-10: $6.86 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703056/000170305626000022/adt-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): 17,858,375 ADT shares; USD 116,080,000 reported position value; 1.16% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# ADT — ADT Inc.

Held by 1 investor · USD 116,080,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 6.50 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ADT

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| John Rogers (https://gigainvestors.com/AI) | USD 116,080,000 | 1.2% | reduce -8.3% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2014 Q1: USD 80,482,958 · 1 holder · USD 29.95
- 2014 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2014 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2014 Q4: USD 10,869,000 · 1 holder · USD 36.23
- 2015 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2015 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2015 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2015 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2016 Q1: USD 515,000 · 1 holder · USD 41.20
- 2016 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2016 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2016 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2018 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2018 Q2: USD 59,758,638 · 2 holders · USD 8.65
- 2018 Q3: USD 93,018,110 · 2 holders · USD 9.39
- 2018 Q4: USD 59,805,853 · 2 holders · USD 6.01
- 2019 Q1: USD 76,236,930 · 2 holders · USD 6.39
- 2019 Q2: USD 99,107,127 · 1 holder · USD 6.12
- 2019 Q3: USD 101,614,285 · 1 holder · USD 6.27
- 2019 Q4: USD 124,694,571 · 1 holder · USD 7.93
- 2020 Q1: USD 63,389,710 · 1 holder · USD 4.32
- 2020 Q2: USD 118,432,377 · 1 holder · USD 7.98
- 2020 Q3: USD 119,797,764 · 1 holder · USD 8.17
- 2020 Q4: USD 112,585,509 · 2 holders · USD 7.85
- 2021 Q1: USD 133,657,528 · 2 holders · USD 8.44
- 2021 Q2: USD 147,396,277 · 1 holder · USD 10.79
- 2021 Q3: USD 96,840,043 · 1 holder · USD 8.09
- 2021 Q4: USD 106,087,861 · 2 holders · USD 8.41
- 2022 Q1: USD 94,896,457 · 2 holders · USD 7.59
- 2022 Q2: USD 59,914,451 · 2 holders · USD 6.15
- 2022 Q3: USD 43,841,487 · 2 holders · USD 7.49
- 2022 Q4: USD 41,321,351 · 3 holders · USD 9.07
- 2023 Q1: USD 38,852,241 · 3 holders · USD 7.23
- 2023 Q2: USD 19,296,000 · 2 holders · USD 6.03
- 2023 Q3: USD 18,600,000 · 1 holder · USD 6.00
- 2023 Q4: USD 21,142,000 · 1 holder · USD 6.82
- 2024 Q1: USD 240,104,236 · 2 holders · USD 6.72
- 2024 Q2: USD 277,895,208 · 2 holders · USD 7.60
- 2024 Q3: USD 256,639,290 · 2 holders · USD 7.23
- 2024 Q4: USD 227,201,740 · 2 holders · USD 6.91
- 2025 Q1: USD 220,246,381 · 1 holder · USD 8.14
- 2025 Q2: USD 196,881,745 · 1 holder · USD 8.47
- 2025 Q3: USD 192,315,458 · 2 holders · USD 8.71
- 2025 Q4: USD 173,975,481 · 1 holder · USD 8.07
- 2026 Q1: USD 127,951,092 · 1 holder · USD 6.57
- 2026 Q2: USD 116,080,000 · 1 holder · USD 6.50