# Adtran (ADTN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ADTN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:14.658Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $6.53 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $0.79 per share, central $0.86 per share, high $0.95 per share. Buy at or below the central value $0.86 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:14.658Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.6% at the stated quote. About 3.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 8

- Operating margin variation: 1.56×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: -0.09×

- FY2019: -0.08×

- FY2020: -0.02×

- FY2021: -0.03×

- FY2022: -0.07×

- FY2023: -0.19×

- FY2024: -0.46×

- FY2025: -0.01×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.00×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -7.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -44.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.9%

- FY2017: 5.8%

- FY2018: -9.8%

- FY2019: -10.8%

- FY2020: -2.5%

- FY2021: -3.9%

- FY2022: -9.3%

- FY2023: -44.8%

- FY2024: -158.2%

- FY2025: -6.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$562M

- Net income, five-year total: -$784M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 30.9%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: $1.8M

- FY2022: $47M

- FY2023: -$191M

- FY2024: -$435M

- FY2025: $15M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.8% vs -44.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.49 to -3.41 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 10.6%

- Market cap gain: -$389M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 10.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$3.90

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.49

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$3.41

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $812M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$795M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -44.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.72

- FY2017: $0.49

- FY2018: -$0.40

- FY2019: -$1.11

- FY2020: $0.05

- FY2021: -$0.18

- FY2022: -$0.03

- FY2023: -$3.41

- FY2024: -$5.83

- FY2025: -$0.57

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -14.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.43×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.0%

- FY2017: 10.0%

- FY2018: -11.9%

- FY2019: -9.7%

- FY2020: 3.6%

- FY2021: -2.0%

- FY2022: 2.1%

- FY2023: -13.4%

- FY2024: -48.1%

- FY2025: -14.6%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 73% since Jul 2022 · "ADTRAN Holdings Expects Q2 Preliminary Revenue Below Earlier Given Outlook" (nasdaq.com, Jul 2026) · sales +5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:14.646Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 32.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-18: ADTRAN Tops Q2 Revenue Guidance Amid Strengthening Demand ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/adtran-tops-q2-revenue-guidance-amid-strengthening-demand))

- 2026-01-22: Adtran sees Q4 revenue above forecast at $290M–$293M ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4541423-adtran-sees-q4-revenue-above-forecast-at-290m293m?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-22: ADTRAN Holdings Expects Q2 Preliminary Revenue Below Earlier Given Outlook ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/adtran-holdings-expects-q2-preliminary-revenue-below-earlier-given-outlook))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926282/000119312526073878/adtn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $667M 

- FY2018: $529M 

- FY2019: $530M 

- FY2020: $507M 

- FY2021: $563M 

- FY2022: $1.0B 

- FY2023: $1.1B 

- FY2024: $923M 

- FY2025: $1.1B 

- FY2026: $1.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 38.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926282/000119312526073878/adtn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 45.8% 

- FY2017: 45.6% 

- FY2018: 38.5% 

- FY2019: 41.3% 

- FY2020: 43.0% 

- FY2021: 38.8% 

- FY2022: 31.9% 

- FY2023: 28.8% 

- FY2024: 35.1% 

- FY2025: 38.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in communication equipment; annual sales are USD 1.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926282/000119312526073878/adtn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 1083807000; grossProfit 414955000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); ADTN.US: ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. It offers residential gateways; ethernet passive optical network ONUs; gigabit passive optical network/XGS-PON ONTs; routers, and switches; edge cloud; carrier ethernet network interface devices; Optical Line Terminals; Packet Aggregation, Copper Access, and Oscilloquartz; optical transport and engine solutions; infrastructure monitoring solution; and training, professional, software, and managed services. The company provides various software, such as Mosaic One SaaS, n-Command, Procloud, MCP, AOE, and ACI-E. It serves large, medium, and small service providers; alternative service providers, such as utilities, municipalities and fiber overbuilders; cable/MSOs; and SMBs and distributed enterprises. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28.8% to 38.3% during 2023–25; it lost 7.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926282/000119312526073878/adtn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06853466460022394],[2017,0.058197245432403885],[2018,-0.09763095817881542],[2019,-0.1084749623765642],[2020,-0.025063367159450213],[2021,-0.03917355371900826],[2022,-0.09251932935811093],[2023,-0.44838032886723506],[2024,-1.5819943047964293],[2025,-0.06159958003149764]]; median -0.07705945469480428. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 4570128.889545478; upkeep 16870871.110454522; owner earnings 32765128.889545478. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13948148670349622.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 14719000; owner earnings 24806000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 6413000; owner earnings 12592000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 5669000; owner earnings 1780000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 18453000; owner earnings 47063000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926282/000119312526073878/adtn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 31737000; owner earnings 15153000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,17583000],[2017,17368000],[2018,17267000],[2019,17212000],[2020,17334000],[2021,17529000],[2022,22885000],[2023,21237000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); ADTN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.249 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926282/000119312526073878/adtn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26);  relating to the emission of electromagnetic energy and safety specifications.

Our dependence on a limited number of suppliers for certain raw materials, key components and ODM products, has prevented and may in the future prevent us from delivering our products on a timely basis, which has had and may continue to have a material adverse effect on operating results and could have a material adverse effect on customer relations. Recently, the Company has experienced increased costs on imports of certain critical raw minerals and derivative products relevant to our business and products due to tariffs imposed by the U.S. government and other nations. The availability, timing and amount of any potential refunds of such tariffs remain unclear. Moreover, although the Company has been able to substantially mitigate the impact of tariffs that have been enacted to date, if additional tariffs and reciprocal tariffs are implemented (whether as currently proposed or otherwise), such actions could have a negative effect on our financial results, including our revenue and profitability.

Competition

We compete in markets for networking and communications services and solutions for Service Providers, businesses, government agencies and other organizations worldwide. Our products and services provide solutions supporting voice, data and video communications across fiber-, copper-, and wireless-based infrastructure, as well as across wide area networks, LANs and the internet.

16

We compete with a number of companies in the markets we serve. In the Subscriber Solutions category, our primary competitors include Calix, Ciena, Nokia, eero, RAD, and a growing number of Asian based ODM's selling direct to carriers. In our Access & Aggregation solutions category, key competitors include Nokia, Calix, Vecima, Harmonic and Microchip. Main competitors of our Optical Networking solutions portfolio are Ciena, Cisco, Ekinops, Nokia, Smartoptics and Ribbon Communications. Within our key target markets, we also compete less often with designated "high-risk vendors" such as Huawei and ZTE Corporation.

Across our markets and segments, the principal competitive factors can include, among others:

•

differentiated feature functionality of our products and solutions;

•

price performance of our solutions and lowest total cost of ownership for customers;

•

quality and reliability of our products;

•

financial stability and health of our company;

•

ability to manage supply chains to produce and deliver products in accordance with customer wish date;

•

ability to innovate and provide customers with differentiated solutions, advantageous to their business model;

•

compelling technology roadmap and research and development power;

•

industry thought leadership and time to market with innovative solutions;

•

country of origin for products and solutions and trusted suppli

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 32.7% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 7.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.4684762811341546. Price 6.53; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.41231201357598457 → FY2025 0.19002533169471544. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $18.15 per share

- 2016-11: $20.35 per share

- 2016-12: $22.35 per share

- 2017-01: $21.90 per share

- 2017-02: $21.15 per share

- 2017-03: $20.75 per share

- 2017-04: $20.00 per share

- 2017-05: $19.25 per share

- 2017-06: $20.65 per share

- 2017-07: $23.45 per share

- 2017-08: $22.10 per share

- 2017-09: $24.00 per share

- 2017-10: $21.10 per share

- 2017-11: $23.10 per share

- 2017-12: $19.35 per share

- 2018-01: $16.00 per share

- 2018-02: $15.65 per share

- 2018-03: $15.55 per share

- 2018-04: $14.65 per share

- 2018-05: $13.95 per share

- 2018-06: $14.85 per share

- 2018-07: $16.25 per share

- 2018-08: $17.20 per share

- 2018-09: $17.65 per share

- 2018-10: $13.44 per share

- 2018-11: $12.45 per share

- 2018-12: $10.74 per share

- 2019-01: $14.58 per share

- 2019-02: $15.02 per share

- 2019-03: $13.70 per share

- 2019-04: $17.14 per share

- 2019-05: $15.68 per share

- 2019-06: $15.25 per share

- 2019-07: $11.11 per share

- 2019-08: $10.27 per share

- 2019-09: $11.35 per share

- 2019-10: $8.81 per share

- 2019-11: $9.19 per share

- 2019-12: $9.89 per share

- 2020-01: $9.05 per share

- 2020-02: $8.05 per share

- 2020-03: $7.68 per share

- 2020-04: $10.28 per share

- 2020-05: $11.40 per share

- 2020-06: $10.93 per share

- 2020-07: $12.42 per share

- 2020-08: $11.09 per share

- 2020-09: $10.26 per share

- 2020-10: $10.69 per share

- 2020-11: $12.64 per share

- 2020-12: $14.77 per share

- 2021-01: $17.20 per share

- 2021-02: $16.84 per share

- 2021-03: $16.68 per share

- 2021-04: $17.09 per share

- 2021-05: $19.81 per share

- 2021-06: $20.65 per share

- 2021-07: $22.41 per share

- 2021-08: $20.66 per share

- 2021-09: $18.76 per share

- 2021-10: $18.48 per share

- 2021-11: $20.38 per share

- 2021-12: $22.83 per share

- 2022-01: $19.21 per share

- 2022-02: $20.59 per share

- 2022-03: $18.45 per share

- 2022-04: $17.39 per share

- 2022-05: $18.53 per share

- 2022-06: $17.53 per share

- 2022-07: $24.09 per share

- 2022-08: $23.24 per share

- 2022-09: $19.58 per share

- 2022-10: $22.46 per share

- 2022-11: $20.27 per share

- 2022-12: $18.79 per share

- 2023-01: $18.87 per share

- 2023-02: $17.45 per share

- 2023-03: $15.86 per share

- 2023-04: $9.12 per share

- 2023-05: $8.91 per share

- 2023-06: $10.53 per share

- 2023-07: $9.73 per share

- 2023-08: $8.55 per share

- 2023-09: $8.23 per share

- 2023-10: $6.57 per share

- 2023-11: $5.23 per share

- 2023-12: $7.34 per share

- 2024-01: $6.27 per share

- 2024-02: $5.69 per share

- 2024-03: $5.44 per share

- 2024-04: $4.38 per share

- 2024-05: $5.55 per share

- 2024-06: $5.26 per share

- 2024-07: $6.77 per share

- 2024-08: $5.58 per share

- 2024-09: $5.93 per share

- 2024-10: $6.08 per share

- 2024-11: $8.50 per share

- 2024-12: $8.33 per share

- 2025-01: $10.37 per share

- 2025-02: $10.57 per share

- 2025-03: $8.72 per share

- 2025-04: $7.66 per share

- 2025-05: $8.03 per share

- 2025-06: $8.97 per share

- 2025-07: $9.29 per share

- 2025-08: $9.38 per share

- 2025-09: $9.38 per share

- 2025-10: $10.42 per share

- 2025-11: $7.93 per share

- 2025-12: $8.69 per share

- 2026-01: $9.22 per share

- 2026-02: $10.20 per share

- 2026-03: $12.58 per share

- 2026-04: $17.69 per share

- 2026-05: $16.55 per share

- 2026-06: $13.90 per share

- 2026-07: $8.51 per share

- 2026-08: $7.75 per share

- 2026-09: $6.84 per share

- 2026-10: $6.53 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $13.14 per share, central $14.64 per share, high $16.63 per share

- FY2017: low $9.53 per share, central $10.59 per share, high $12.00 per share

- FY2018: low $6.55 per share, central $7.17 per share, high $7.99 per share

- FY2019: low $6.28 per share, central $6.87 per share, high $7.65 per share

- FY2020: low $3.95 per share, central $4.34 per share, high $4.87 per share

- FY2021: low $1.34 per share, central $1.40 per share, high $1.47 per share

- FY2022: low $1.65 per share, central $1.72 per share, high $1.83 per share

- FY2023: low $1.00 per share, central $1.10 per share, high $1.20 per share

- FY2024: low $0.57 per share, central $0.63 per share, high $0.71 per share

- FY2025: low $0.85 per share, central $0.92 per share, high $1.01 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926282/000119312526073878/adtn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): 1,248,507 ADTN shares; USD 17,354,000 reported position value; 0.03% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): 70,292 ADTN shares; USD 977,000 reported position value; 0.01% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# ADTN — ADTRAN Holdings Inc.

Held by 2 investors · USD 18,331,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 13.90 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ADTN

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Matthew McLennan (https://gigainvestors.com/FE) | USD 17,354,000 | <0.1% | reduce -8.78% |
| Dan Davidowitz (https://gigainvestors.com/pcm) | USD 977,000 | <0.1% | reduce -7.13% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2021 Q2: USD 50,988 · 1 holder · USD 20.51
- 2021 Q3: USD 318,997 · 1 holder · USD 18.78
- 2021 Q4: USD 569,931 · 1 holder · USD 22.81
- 2022 Q1: USD 1,109,243 · 1 holder · USD 18.46
- 2022 Q2: USD 1,978,716 · 1 holder · USD 17.53
- 2022 Q3: USD 863,008 · 1 holder · USD 19.58
- 2022 Q4: USD 2,782,047 · 1 holder · USD 18.79
- 2023 Q1: USD 5,449,211 · 1 holder · USD 15.86
- 2023 Q2: USD 7,926,047 · 1 holder · USD 10.53
- 2023 Q3: USD 9,355,922 · 1 holder · USD 8.23
- 2023 Q4: USD 9,324,053 · 1 holder · USD 7.34
- 2024 Q1: USD 2,210,310 · 1 holder · USD 5.44
- 2024 Q2: USD 3,586,305 · 1 holder · USD 5.26
- 2024 Q3: USD 5,940,716 · 1 holder · USD 5.93
- 2024 Q4: USD 10,385,902 · 1 holder · USD 8.33
- 2025 Q1: USD 9,976,613 · 1 holder · USD 8.72
- 2025 Q2: USD 10,168,455 · 1 holder · USD 8.97
- 2025 Q3: USD 11,342,362 · 1 holder · USD 9.38
- 2025 Q4: USD 10,733,949 · 1 holder · USD 8.69
- 2026 Q1: USD 18,170,489 · 2 holders · USD 12.58
- 2026 Q2: USD 18,331,000 · 2 holders · USD 13.90