# Ameren (AEE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AEE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:21.869Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $103.76 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $50.04 per share, central $61.34 per share, high $71.52 per share. Buy at or below the central value $61.34 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:21.869Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.1% at the stated quote. About 7.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.23×

- FY2018: 0.22×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.22×

- FY2021: 0.21×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.23×

- LTM to Mar 2026: 0.24×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 16.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 16.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 29.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 45.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -2.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.9%

- FY2017: 6.0%

- FY2018: 6.5%

- FY2019: 6.0%

- FY2020: 5.5%

- FY2021: 5.0%

- FY2022: 5.2%

- FY2023: 4.9%

- FY2024: 4.7%

- FY2025: 5.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.13×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$814M

- Net income, five-year total: $6.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -0.97×

- FY2024: -0.91×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- LTM to Mar 2026: -0.76×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.0% vs 4.9%

- Per-share earnings: 2.59 to 4.42 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.8%

- Market cap gain: $15B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.9%

- Per-share value change: $1.83

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.59

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.42

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.68

- FY2017: $2.14

- FY2018: $3.32

- FY2019: $3.35

- FY2020: $3.50

- FY2021: $3.84

- FY2022: $4.14

- FY2023: $4.37

- FY2024: $4.42

- FY2025: $5.35

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.30×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.9%

- FY2017: -6.1%

- FY2018: -5.0%

- FY2019: -4.6%

- FY2020: -2.7%

- FY2021: -1.9%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -3.5%

- FY2024: -3.5%

- FY2025: -3.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.3% a year for ten years · sales +0.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.238Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2017: $6.2B 

- FY2018: $6.3B 

- FY2019: $5.9B 

- FY2020: $5.8B 

- FY2021: $6.4B 

- FY2022: $8.0B 

- FY2023: $7.5B 

- FY2024: $7.6B 

- FY2025: $8.8B 

- FY2026: $8.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 29.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 43.4% 

- FY2017: 45.1% 

- FY2018: 44.4% 

- FY2019: 46.4% 

- FY2020: 49.3% 

- FY2021: 46.8% 

- FY2022: 42.0% 

- FY2023: 46.2% 

- FY2024: 47.9% 

- FY2025: 29.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated electric; annual sales are USD 8.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 8799000000; grossProfit 2603000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.6% to 47.9% during 2023–25; it earns 5.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 46.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 47.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 29.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.059192670661982506],[2017,0.0603675405084969],[2018,0.0648412400942386],[2019,0.05967280977536308],[2020,0.055337009718268076],[2021,0.05030948067632851],[2022,0.05222267053987562],[2023,0.049061904453443064],[2024,0.04658172248818691],[2025,0.056496067902792484]]; median 0.055916538810530284. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 5.1% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 2246000000; upkeep 1277000000; owner earnings 990000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.268686868686869.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 1942000000; upkeep 1438000000; owner earnings 1074000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.808193668528864.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 2506000000; upkeep 1668000000; owner earnings 1456000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7211538461538463.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Incremental return on capital 0.05142564661364502, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,416000000],[2017,431000000],[2018,451000000],[2019,472000000],[2020,494000000],[2021,565000000],[2022,610000000],[2023,662000000],[2024,714000000],[2025,768000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AEE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.32399999999999995 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Realized energy demand from current and potential new customers may differ significantly from forecasts." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); Realized energy demand from current and potential new customers may differ significantly from forecasts.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12112160015726159. Price 103.76; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.399049711234914 → FY2025 5.349008082292432. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $49.95 per share

- 2016-11: $49.12 per share

- 2016-12: $52.46 per share

- 2017-01: $52.65 per share

- 2017-02: $54.69 per share

- 2017-03: $54.59 per share

- 2017-04: $54.69 per share

- 2017-05: $56.75 per share

- 2017-06: $54.67 per share

- 2017-07: $56.10 per share

- 2017-08: $59.99 per share

- 2017-09: $57.84 per share

- 2017-10: $61.99 per share

- 2017-11: $63.96 per share

- 2017-12: $58.99 per share

- 2018-01: $56.63 per share

- 2018-02: $54.30 per share

- 2018-03: $56.63 per share

- 2018-04: $58.62 per share

- 2018-05: $59.19 per share

- 2018-06: $60.85 per share

- 2018-07: $62.06 per share

- 2018-08: $63.23 per share

- 2018-09: $63.22 per share

- 2018-10: $64.58 per share

- 2018-11: $68.62 per share

- 2018-12: $65.23 per share

- 2019-01: $69.34 per share

- 2019-02: $71.24 per share

- 2019-03: $73.55 per share

- 2019-04: $72.77 per share

- 2019-05: $73.34 per share

- 2019-06: $75.11 per share

- 2019-07: $75.69 per share

- 2019-08: $77.15 per share

- 2019-09: $80.05 per share

- 2019-10: $77.70 per share

- 2019-11: $74.33 per share

- 2019-12: $76.80 per share

- 2020-01: $82.05 per share

- 2020-02: $79.00 per share

- 2020-03: $72.83 per share

- 2020-04: $72.75 per share

- 2020-05: $74.73 per share

- 2020-06: $70.36 per share

- 2020-07: $80.24 per share

- 2020-08: $79.11 per share

- 2020-09: $79.08 per share

- 2020-10: $81.12 per share

- 2020-11: $77.78 per share

- 2020-12: $78.06 per share

- 2021-01: $72.72 per share

- 2021-02: $70.27 per share

- 2021-03: $81.36 per share

- 2021-04: $84.84 per share

- 2021-05: $84.20 per share

- 2021-06: $80.04 per share

- 2021-07: $83.92 per share

- 2021-08: $87.72 per share

- 2021-09: $81.00 per share

- 2021-10: $84.29 per share

- 2021-11: $81.59 per share

- 2021-12: $89.01 per share

- 2022-01: $88.74 per share

- 2022-02: $85.95 per share

- 2022-03: $93.76 per share

- 2022-04: $92.90 per share

- 2022-05: $95.19 per share

- 2022-06: $90.36 per share

- 2022-07: $93.12 per share

- 2022-08: $92.62 per share

- 2022-09: $80.55 per share

- 2022-10: $81.52 per share

- 2022-11: $89.32 per share

- 2022-12: $88.92 per share

- 2023-01: $86.87 per share

- 2023-02: $82.71 per share

- 2023-03: $86.39 per share

- 2023-04: $88.97 per share

- 2023-05: $81.07 per share

- 2023-06: $81.67 per share

- 2023-07: $85.67 per share

- 2023-08: $79.27 per share

- 2023-09: $74.83 per share

- 2023-10: $75.71 per share

- 2023-11: $77.59 per share

- 2023-12: $72.34 per share

- 2024-01: $69.57 per share

- 2024-02: $71.19 per share

- 2024-03: $73.96 per share

- 2024-04: $73.87 per share

- 2024-05: $73.37 per share

- 2024-06: $71.11 per share

- 2024-07: $79.27 per share

- 2024-08: $82.51 per share

- 2024-09: $87.46 per share

- 2024-10: $87.11 per share

- 2024-11: $94.39 per share

- 2024-12: $89.14 per share

- 2025-01: $94.20 per share

- 2025-02: $101.56 per share

- 2025-03: $100.40 per share

- 2025-04: $99.24 per share

- 2025-05: $96.88 per share

- 2025-06: $96.04 per share

- 2025-07: $101.13 per share

- 2025-08: $99.78 per share

- 2025-09: $104.38 per share

- 2025-10: $102.02 per share

- 2025-11: $106.35 per share

- 2025-12: $99.86 per share

- 2026-01: $103.28 per share

- 2026-02: $113.28 per share

- 2026-03: $109.92 per share

- 2026-04: $113.65 per share

- 2026-05: $107.97 per share

- 2026-06: $113.04 per share

- 2026-07: $109.61 per share

- 2026-08: $106.01 per share

- 2026-09: $99.38 per share

- 2026-10: $103.76 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2025: low $51.19 per share, central $62.75 per share, high $73.16 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:08.079Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002910/000100291026000009/aee-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations



# AEE — Ameren Corp.

Held by 1 investor · USD 562,971 total · 2023 Q2 · reported price USD 81.59 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AEE

## Holders (2023 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| David Rolfe (https://gigainvestors.com/WP) | USD 562,971 | 0.1% | hold |

## Total held by quarter

- 2016 Q1: USD 1,629,052 · 1 holder · USD 50.08
- 2016 Q2: USD 1,743,007 · 1 holder · USD 53.57
- 2016 Q3: USD 1,509,888 · 1 holder · USD 49.15
- 2016 Q4: USD 1,042,046 · 1 holder · USD 52.43
- 2017 Q1: USD 1,015,994 · 1 holder · USD 54.55
- 2017 Q2: USD 1,004,010 · 1 holder · USD 54.64
- 2017 Q3: USD 989,996 · 1 holder · USD 57.81
- 2017 Q4: USD 966,944 · 1 holder · USD 58.96
- 2018 Q1: USD 829,044 · 1 holder · USD 56.59
- 2018 Q2: USD 526,007 · 1 holder · USD 60.81
- 2018 Q3: USD 467,014 · 1 holder · USD 63.11
- 2018 Q4: USD 482,036 · 1 holder · USD 65.14
- 2019 Q1: USD 507,012 · 1 holder · USD 73.48
- 2019 Q2: USD 517,983 · 1 holder · USD 75.07
- 2019 Q3: USD 552,000 · 1 holder · USD 80.00
- 2019 Q4: USD 529,023 · 1 holder · USD 76.67
- 2020 Q1: USD 501,975 · 1 holder · USD 72.75
- 2020 Q2: USD 485,001 · 1 holder · USD 70.29
- 2020 Q3: USD 545,031 · 1 holder · USD 78.99
- 2020 Q4: USD 537,993 · 1 holder · USD 77.97
- 2021 Q1: USD 560,970 · 1 holder · USD 81.30
- 2021 Q2: USD 552,000 · 1 holder · USD 80.00
- 2021 Q3: USD 558,003 · 1 holder · USD 80.87
- 2021 Q4: USD 614,031 · 1 holder · USD 88.99
- 2022 Q1: USD 645,978 · 1 holder · USD 93.62
- 2022 Q2: USD 623,001 · 1 holder · USD 90.29
- 2022 Q3: USD 554,967 · 1 holder · USD 80.43
- 2022 Q4: USD 612,996 · 1 holder · USD 88.84
- 2023 Q1: USD 596,022 · 1 holder · USD 86.38
- 2023 Q2: USD 562,971 · 1 holder · USD 81.59
- 2023 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders