# agilon health (AGL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AGL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:18.058Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $88.45 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 7

- Operating margin variation: 0.75×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -0.13×

- FY2020: -0.05×

- FY2021: -0.24×

- FY2022: -0.04×

- FY2023: -0.05×

- FY2024: -0.05×

- FY2025: -0.07×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 6.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: -94.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -270.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 3.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): -3.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 3

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -97.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.0%

- FY2020: 0.0%

- FY2021: -533.2%

- FY2022: -38.9%

- FY2023: -94.1%

- FY2024: -270.9%

- FY2025: -203.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$1.4B

- Net income, five-year total: -$1.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$405M

- FY2022: -$112M

- FY2023: -$263M

- FY2024: -$249M

- FY2025: -$390M

### management: fail

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.0% vs -203.4%

- Per-share earnings: -23.97 to -16.05 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.1%

- Per-share value change: $7.92

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$23.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$16.05

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 62.1%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -203.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -$23.97

- FY2020: -$4.64

- FY2021: -$27.25

- FY2022: -$6.53

- FY2023: -$16.05

- FY2024: -$15.83

- FY2025: -$24.48

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -23.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.68×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.52×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -44.4%

- FY2020: -1.5%

- FY2021: -16.3%

- FY2022: 1.4%

- FY2023: -6.1%

- FY2024: -11.7%

- FY2025: -23.6%

## Holders

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Up 391% since Oct 2023 · "* Revenue of $1.4B (-6.7% Y/Y) misses by $70M." (seekingalpha.com, Aug 2025) · sales -2.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:15.494Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831097/000162828026011655/agl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2019: $794M 

- FY2020: $1.2B 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: $2.4B 

- FY2023: $4.3B 

- FY2024: $6.1B 

- FY2025: $5.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 0.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831097/000162828026011655/agl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2019: 3.6% 

- FY2020: 7.7% 

- FY2021: 4.3% 

- FY2022: 4.7% 

- FY2023: 1.6% 

- FY2024: 0.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in medical care facilities; annual sales are USD 5.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831097/000162828026011655/agl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 5932576000; grossProfit -188614999; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AGL.US: agilon health, inc. provides healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States. It offers a platform that manages the total healthcare needs of the patients by subscription-like per-member per-month. The company was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc. and changed its name to agilon health, inc. in March 2021. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Westerville, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

It lost 94.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 1.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 0.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831097/000162828026011655/agl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = -3.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,-5.332399627685508],[2022,-0.3888723216412786],[2023,-0.9408560229435697],[2024,-2.709194106943711],[2025,-2.033947257396866]]; median -0.9408560229435697. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 7 years; bought back USD 3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,6867000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831097/000162828026011655/agl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 2994000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AGL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 5.044 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price is 0.2 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Closing price 88.45 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 358.27417028811334; price multiple 0.24687797037914055. FY2025 cash earnings/share -23.55218627481768. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-04: $31.53 per share

- 2021-05: $35.94 per share

- 2021-06: $40.57 per share

- 2021-07: $36.79 per share

- 2021-08: $35.00 per share

- 2021-09: $26.21 per share

- 2021-10: $24.50 per share

- 2021-11: $22.00 per share

- 2021-12: $27.00 per share

- 2022-01: $16.58 per share

- 2022-02: $20.22 per share

- 2022-03: $25.35 per share

- 2022-04: $17.77 per share

- 2022-05: $19.10 per share

- 2022-06: $21.83 per share

- 2022-07: $25.03 per share

- 2022-08: $20.78 per share

- 2022-09: $23.42 per share

- 2022-10: $19.85 per share

- 2022-11: $17.56 per share

- 2022-12: $16.14 per share

- 2023-01: $21.76 per share

- 2023-02: $21.21 per share

- 2023-03: $23.75 per share

- 2023-04: $24.27 per share

- 2023-05: $19.88 per share

- 2023-06: $17.34 per share

- 2023-07: $19.15 per share

- 2023-08: $17.72 per share

- 2023-09: $17.76 per share

- 2023-10: $18.00 per share

- 2023-11: $10.62 per share

- 2023-12: $12.55 per share

- 2024-01: $5.89 per share

- 2024-02: $6.13 per share

- 2024-03: $6.10 per share

- 2024-04: $5.50 per share

- 2024-05: $6.30 per share

- 2024-06: $6.54 per share

- 2024-07: $6.89 per share

- 2024-08: $4.08 per share

- 2024-09: $3.93 per share

- 2024-10: $2.55 per share

- 2024-11: $2.09 per share

- 2024-12: $1.90 per share

- 2025-01: $3.34 per share

- 2025-02: $3.12 per share

- 2025-03: $4.33 per share

- 2025-04: $4.26 per share

- 2025-05: $2.22 per share

- 2025-06: $2.30 per share

- 2025-07: $1.79 per share

- 2025-08: $1.28 per share

- 2025-09: $1.03 per share

- 2025-10: $0.80 per share

- 2025-11: $0.65 per share

- 2025-12: $0.69 per share

- 2026-01: $0.83 per share

- 2026-02: $0.59 per share

- 2026-03: $7.91 per share

- 2026-04: $27.95 per share

- 2026-05: $92.28 per share

- 2026-06: $107.18 per share

- 2026-07: $91.61 per share

- 2026-08: $87.89 per share

- 2026-09: $79.59 per share

- 2026-10: $88.45 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831097/000162828026011655/agl-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): 440,642 AGL shares; USD 47,228,000 reported position value; 0.46% of portfolio; new; quarter 2026 Q2.

# AGL — Agilon Health Inc

Held by 1 investor · USD 47,228,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 107.18 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AGL

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Henry Ellenbogen (https://gigainvestors.com/DCP) | USD 47,228,000 | 0.5% | new |

## Total held by quarter

- 2023 Q1: USD 130,699,219 · 1 holder · USD 593.75
- 2023 Q2: USD 104,657,738 · 1 holder · USD 433.50
- 2023 Q3: USD 103,247,760 · 1 holder · USD 444.00
- 2023 Q4: USD 26,220,088 · 1 holder · USD 313.75
- 2024 Q1: USD 5,953,972 · 1 holder · USD 152.49
- 2024 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2025 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2025 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2025 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2025 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2026 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2026 Q2: USD 47,228,000 · 1 holder · USD 107.18