# Adecoagro (AGRO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AGRO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:18.498Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $10.05 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $14.33 per share, central $16.02 per share, high $18.27 per share. Buy at or below the central value $16.02 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:18.498Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.5% at the stated quote. About 15.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.34×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.20×

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.23×

- FY2021: 0.25×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 7.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 7.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 32.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 18.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.8%

- FY2017: 10.6%

- FY2018: 7.4%

- FY2019: 4.1%

- FY2020: 6.9%

- FY2021: 11.0%

- FY2022: 8.9%

- FY2023: 8.2%

- FY2024: 7.9%

- FY2025: 1.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.06×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $580M

- Net income, five-year total: $549M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -8.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 39.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.04×

- FY2022: 1.22×

- FY2023: 1.14×

- FY2024: 1.44×

- FY2025: 9.31×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.8% vs 7.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.08 to 0.90 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 15.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 33.9%

- Market cap gain: $2.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $459M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 15.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 33.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 34.9%

- Per-share value change: $0.81

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.08

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.90

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.71

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $253M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $536M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.02

- FY2017: $0.08

- FY2018: -$0.21

- FY2019: -$0.01

- FY2020: $0.00

- FY2021: $1.13

- FY2022: $0.98

- FY2023: $2.11

- FY2024: $0.90

- FY2025: -$0.02

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -5.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 2.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -17.4%

- FY2017: -14.1%

- FY2018: -10.7%

- FY2019: -12.8%

- FY2020: -10.3%

- FY2021: -8.4%

- FY2022: -8.4%

- FY2023: -6.6%

- FY2024: -7.6%

- FY2025: -5.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 33% since Mar 2026 · sales -6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:15.521Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1499505/000149950526000069/agro-20251231.htm; observed 2026-04-29.

- FY2016: $869M 

- FY2017: $933M 

- FY2018: $793M 

- FY2019: $887M 

- FY2020: $818M 

- FY2021: $1.1B 

- FY2022: $1.3B 

- FY2023: $1.3B 

- FY2024: $1.5B 

- FY2025: $1.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 24.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1499505/000149950526000069/agro-20251231.htm; observed 2026-04-29.

- FY2016: 35.7% 

- FY2017: 25.6% 

- FY2018: 25.0% 

- FY2019: 32.3% 

- FY2020: 41.0% 

- FY2021: 43.1% 

- FY2022: 34.5% 

- FY2023: 32.0% 

- FY2024: 28.6% 

- FY2025: 24.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm products; annual sales are USD 1.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1499505/000149950526000069/agro-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-29); FY2025: revenue 1427734000; grossProfit 351276000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AGRO.US: Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.6% to 32% during 2023–25; it earns 8.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 32%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 28.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1499505/000149950526000069/agro-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-29); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09766297299964057],[2017,0.10604139546772613],[2018,0.07379836516490416],[2019,0.04145483175892197],[2020,0.06904311217638617],[2021,0.10981439609786073],[2022,0.08867484341169507],[2023,0.08170099962295789],[2024,0.07932204363325923],[2025,0.018071322051079693]]; median 0.08051152162810857. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 10 years; bought back USD 10.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2016: growth capex 7823000; upkeep 127500000; owner earnings 2039000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.8366846493379105.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2017: growth capex 51378000; upkeep 151007000; owner earnings 9972000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 5.15222623345367.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 176990000; owner earnings 6114000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 213005000; owner earnings 135791000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 230222000; owner earnings 132295000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 243425000; owner earnings 256969000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 263329000; owner earnings 133035000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,35000000],[2020,35000000],[2021,35000000],[2022,35000000],[2023,35000000],[2024,35000000],[2025,35000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1499505/000149950526000069/agro-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-29); FY2025: cash repurchases 10210000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 73.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AGRO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 73.37700000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 6.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.09879426945147365. Price 10.05; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.1752325372304775 → FY2025 -0.1535718884874609. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $11.00 per share

- 2016-11: $10.98 per share

- 2016-12: $10.38 per share

- 2017-01: $11.57 per share

- 2017-02: $11.72 per share

- 2017-03: $11.46 per share

- 2017-04: $11.09 per share

- 2017-05: $11.00 per share

- 2017-06: $9.99 per share

- 2017-07: $10.17 per share

- 2017-08: $9.70 per share

- 2017-09: $10.80 per share

- 2017-10: $10.16 per share

- 2017-11: $9.79 per share

- 2017-12: $10.34 per share

- 2018-01: $9.69 per share

- 2018-02: $8.99 per share

- 2018-03: $7.52 per share

- 2018-04: $7.72 per share

- 2018-05: $8.13 per share

- 2018-06: $7.95 per share

- 2018-07: $8.40 per share

- 2018-08: $8.01 per share

- 2018-09: $7.35 per share

- 2018-10: $8.00 per share

- 2018-11: $6.98 per share

- 2018-12: $6.96 per share

- 2019-01: $7.62 per share

- 2019-02: $7.11 per share

- 2019-03: $6.89 per share

- 2019-04: $6.80 per share

- 2019-05: $6.65 per share

- 2019-06: $7.14 per share

- 2019-07: $6.75 per share

- 2019-08: $5.58 per share

- 2019-09: $5.83 per share

- 2019-10: $5.93 per share

- 2019-11: $6.88 per share

- 2019-12: $8.37 per share

- 2020-01: $7.47 per share

- 2020-02: $6.54 per share

- 2020-03: $3.89 per share

- 2020-04: $3.99 per share

- 2020-05: $4.31 per share

- 2020-06: $4.34 per share

- 2020-07: $4.18 per share

- 2020-08: $5.06 per share

- 2020-09: $4.67 per share

- 2020-10: $4.84 per share

- 2020-11: $6.18 per share

- 2020-12: $6.80 per share

- 2021-01: $7.46 per share

- 2021-02: $8.25 per share

- 2021-03: $7.86 per share

- 2021-04: $9.31 per share

- 2021-05: $10.63 per share

- 2021-06: $10.04 per share

- 2021-07: $9.56 per share

- 2021-08: $9.35 per share

- 2021-09: $9.03 per share

- 2021-10: $8.76 per share

- 2021-11: $7.81 per share

- 2021-12: $7.68 per share

- 2022-01: $8.10 per share

- 2022-02: $9.56 per share

- 2022-03: $12.08 per share

- 2022-04: $11.25 per share

- 2022-05: $11.11 per share

- 2022-06: $8.46 per share

- 2022-07: $8.20 per share

- 2022-08: $9.22 per share

- 2022-09: $8.29 per share

- 2022-10: $8.66 per share

- 2022-11: $8.26 per share

- 2022-12: $8.29 per share

- 2023-01: $8.45 per share

- 2023-02: $8.12 per share

- 2023-03: $8.09 per share

- 2023-04: $8.46 per share

- 2023-05: $8.74 per share

- 2023-06: $9.36 per share

- 2023-07: $11.10 per share

- 2023-08: $11.48 per share

- 2023-09: $11.69 per share

- 2023-10: $10.55 per share

- 2023-11: $11.46 per share

- 2023-12: $11.10 per share

- 2024-01: $10.23 per share

- 2024-02: $10.04 per share

- 2024-03: $11.02 per share

- 2024-04: $10.85 per share

- 2024-05: $9.84 per share

- 2024-06: $9.73 per share

- 2024-07: $9.66 per share

- 2024-08: $11.01 per share

- 2024-09: $11.07 per share

- 2024-10: $11.50 per share

- 2024-11: $10.90 per share

- 2024-12: $9.43 per share

- 2025-01: $9.73 per share

- 2025-02: $10.68 per share

- 2025-03: $11.17 per share

- 2025-04: $9.34 per share

- 2025-05: $9.21 per share

- 2025-06: $9.14 per share

- 2025-07: $9.19 per share

- 2025-08: $8.46 per share

- 2025-09: $7.84 per share

- 2025-10: $8.06 per share

- 2025-11: $8.13 per share

- 2025-12: $7.93 per share

- 2026-01: $8.86 per share

- 2026-02: $8.88 per share

- 2026-03: $15.02 per share

- 2026-04: $14.09 per share

- 2026-05: $12.13 per share

- 2026-06: $9.55 per share

- 2026-07: $9.97 per share

- 2026-08: $11.38 per share

- 2026-09: $10.14 per share

- 2026-10: $10.05 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $2.90 per share, central $2.92 per share, high $2.95 per share

- FY2021: low $2.48 per share, central $2.82 per share, high $3.05 per share

- FY2022: low $3.08 per share, central $3.62 per share, high $3.93 per share

- FY2023: low $19.04 per share, central $25.95 per share, high $29.98 per share

- FY2024: low $21.42 per share, central $29.85 per share, high $34.76 per share

- FY2025: low $3.90 per share, central $4.32 per share, high $4.88 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1499505/000149950526000069/agro-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-29.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations



# AGRO — Adecoagro SA

Held by 1 investor · USD 6,289,559 total · 2025 Q1 · reported price USD 11.17 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AGRO

## Holders (2025 Q1)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Sarah Ketterer (https://gigainvestors.com/CAU) | USD 6,289,559 | 0.1% | reduce -0.76% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2023 Q4: USD 4,112,739 · 1 holder · USD 11.10
- 2024 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q3: USD 3,327,177 · 1 holder · USD 11.07
- 2024 Q4: USD 5,350,337 · 1 holder · USD 9.43
- 2025 Q1: USD 6,289,559 · 1 holder · USD 11.17
- 2025 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders