# Align Technology (ALGN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALGN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:22.428Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $149.34 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $109.74 per share, central $153.50 per share, high $177.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value $153.50 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:22.428Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.2% at the stated quote. About 10.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.23×

- FY2017: 0.24×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.25×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.15×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 27.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 71.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 68.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 28.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 63.9%

- FY2017: 59.5%

- FY2018: 87.8%

- FY2019: 91.5%

- FY2020: 20.2%

- FY2021: 34.5%

- FY2022: 18.0%

- FY2023: 18.9%

- FY2024: 16.9%

- FY2025: 16.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 13.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 30.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.54×

- FY2023: 0.66×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.33×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 63.9% vs 16.9%

- Per-share earnings: 2.33 to 5.65 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: $3.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 11.7%

- Per-share value change: $3.33

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.33

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.65

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.16

- Average buyback yield: 1.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $593M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $5.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 63.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.33

- FY2017: $2.83

- FY2018: $4.92

- FY2019: $5.53

- FY2020: $22.41

- FY2021: $9.69

- FY2022: $4.61

- FY2023: $5.81

- FY2024: $5.62

- FY2025: $5.65

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -2.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.11×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 31.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.45×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.2%

- FY2017: -11.7%

- FY2018: -7.5%

- FY2019: -12.2%

- FY2020: 23.1%

- FY2021: -6.7%

- FY2022: -3.5%

- FY2023: -5.6%

- FY2024: -5.1%

- FY2025: -2.9%

## Holders

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 77% since Dec 2021 · "Invisalign maker Align Technology cuts annual revenue forecast on weak demand" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales +0.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:16.269Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-14: ALGN Q1 Earnings Call: New Product Launches and International Growth Offset Margin Pressure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/algn-q1-earnings-call-product-141510581.html))

- 2025-07-30: Invisalign maker Align Technology cuts annual revenue forecast on weak demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/invisalign-maker-align-technology-cuts-215359437.html))

- 2025-08-01: Align Technology Sinks on Q2 Miss, Restructuring Plan ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/align-technology-sinks-q2-miss-124338513.html))

- 2025-10-30: ALGN Stock Up on Q3 Earnings and Revenue Beat, Margins Crash ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/algn-stock-q3-earnings-revenue-162400697.html))

- 2025-12-09: ALGN Stock Rises on Thailand Launch of Invisalign With MAOB ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/algn-stock-rises-thailand-launch-122800796.html))

- 2026-02-05: ALGN Stock Climbs on Q4 Earnings and Revenue Beat, Margins Down ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/algn-stock-climbs-q4-earnings-130900563.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1097149/000109714926000014/algn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $1.1B 

- FY2017: $1.5B 

- FY2018: $2.0B 

- FY2019: $2.4B 

- FY2020: $2.5B 

- FY2021: $4.0B 

- FY2022: $3.7B 

- FY2023: $3.9B 

- FY2024: $4.0B 

- FY2025: $4.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 68.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1097149/000109714926000014/algn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 75.5% 

- FY2017: 75.8% 

- FY2018: 73.6% 

- FY2019: 72.5% 

- FY2020: 71.3% 

- FY2021: 74.3% 

- FY2022: 70.5% 

- FY2023: 70.1% 

- FY2024: 70.0% 

- FY2025: 68.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in medical instruments & supplies; annual sales are USD 4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1097149/000109714926000014/algn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 4034964000; grossProfit 2756897000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALGN.US: Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment also provides Invisalign express, Invisalign lite, and Invisalign moderate; Invisalign Go, Invisalign Go express, and Invisalign Go Plus; retention products, Invisalign training, adjusting tools used by dental professionals during treatment, ancillary Invisalign accessory products, and other oral health products; Invisalign Professional Whitening system; Invisalign Palatal Expander, a 3D printed orthodontic device; and 3D printing solutions. Its Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services segment offers iTero intraoral scanning system, a single hardware platform for restorative or orthodontic procedures; exocad, a computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing software; orthodontist software for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and fabrication of printed models and retainers; and restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons. This segment also offers Invisalign outcome simulator, a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner; Invisalign progress assessment tool; Align Oral Health Suite, a digital interface for dental consultations; iTero TimeLapse technology for doctors or practitioners to compare a patient's historic 3D scans to the present-day scan; and subscription software, disposables, rents scanners, and pay per scan services. Align Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 68.3% to 70.1% during 2023–25; it earns 27.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 70.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 70%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1097149/000109714926000014/algn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 68.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.6391545892053369],[2017,0.5953972386281214],[2018,0.8782481973868769],[2019,0.9151556981063218],[2020,0.2022430179927235],[2021,0.3449869213871998],[2022,0.17994966677882462],[2023,0.18882247526408494],[2024,0.16920892495745654],[2025,0.16766025134099902]]; median 0.27361496968996163. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years; bought back USD 465.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 32724356.54031059; upkeep 37851643.45968941; owner earnings 175832356.5403106. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18611111847783454.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 62447025.79095736; upkeep 133247974.20904264; owner earnings 135909025.79095736. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.45947666409593413.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 93071919.84897389; upkeep 130240080.15102611; owner earnings 324721919.8489739. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2866203793456908.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 70717000; upkeep 78990000; owner earnings 442776000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15971281189585704.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 16683738.351839036; upkeep 138232261.64816096; owner earnings 1731193738.351839. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009637129561086893.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 292369000; upkeep 108729000; owner earnings 772020000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.37870651019403645.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 291900000; owner earnings 195466000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 42047981.232782036; upkeep 135668018.76721796; owner earnings 295395981.232782. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14234445931627895.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 115580000; owner earnings 450816000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1097149/000109714926000014/algn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 102445000; owner earnings 545342000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1097149/000109714926000014/algn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 465939000 USD.

### What could break it

"Competition in the markets for our products and services is increasing." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1097149/000109714926000014/algn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Competition in the markets for our products and services is increasing.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 17.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11238413751127235. Price 149.34; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.4651900797785657 → FY2025 7.5128395878106575. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $85.92 per share

- 2016-11: $93.05 per share

- 2016-12: $96.13 per share

- 2017-01: $91.69 per share

- 2017-02: $102.76 per share

- 2017-03: $114.71 per share

- 2017-04: $134.62 per share

- 2017-05: $145.20 per share

- 2017-06: $150.12 per share

- 2017-07: $167.23 per share

- 2017-08: $176.74 per share

- 2017-09: $186.27 per share

- 2017-10: $238.98 per share

- 2017-11: $260.88 per share

- 2017-12: $222.19 per share

- 2018-01: $262.00 per share

- 2018-02: $262.52 per share

- 2018-03: $251.13 per share

- 2018-04: $249.85 per share

- 2018-05: $331.95 per share

- 2018-06: $342.14 per share

- 2018-07: $356.65 per share

- 2018-08: $386.49 per share

- 2018-09: $391.22 per share

- 2018-10: $221.20 per share

- 2018-11: $229.89 per share

- 2018-12: $209.43 per share

- 2019-01: $248.95 per share

- 2019-02: $258.97 per share

- 2019-03: $284.33 per share

- 2019-04: $324.68 per share

- 2019-05: $284.35 per share

- 2019-06: $273.70 per share

- 2019-07: $209.08 per share

- 2019-08: $183.11 per share

- 2019-09: $180.92 per share

- 2019-10: $252.29 per share

- 2019-11: $277.34 per share

- 2019-12: $279.04 per share

- 2020-01: $257.10 per share

- 2020-02: $218.35 per share

- 2020-03: $173.95 per share

- 2020-04: $214.85 per share

- 2020-05: $245.62 per share

- 2020-06: $274.44 per share

- 2020-07: $293.82 per share

- 2020-08: $296.98 per share

- 2020-09: $327.36 per share

- 2020-10: $426.08 per share

- 2020-11: $481.29 per share

- 2020-12: $534.38 per share

- 2021-01: $525.38 per share

- 2021-02: $567.11 per share

- 2021-03: $541.53 per share

- 2021-04: $595.53 per share

- 2021-05: $590.15 per share

- 2021-06: $611.00 per share

- 2021-07: $695.80 per share

- 2021-08: $709.00 per share

- 2021-09: $665.43 per share

- 2021-10: $624.37 per share

- 2021-11: $611.53 per share

- 2021-12: $657.18 per share

- 2022-01: $494.96 per share

- 2022-02: $511.46 per share

- 2022-03: $436.00 per share

- 2022-04: $289.91 per share

- 2022-05: $277.64 per share

- 2022-06: $236.67 per share

- 2022-07: $280.97 per share

- 2022-08: $243.70 per share

- 2022-09: $207.11 per share

- 2022-10: $194.30 per share

- 2022-11: $196.66 per share

- 2022-12: $210.90 per share

- 2023-01: $269.73 per share

- 2023-02: $309.50 per share

- 2023-03: $334.14 per share

- 2023-04: $325.30 per share

- 2023-05: $282.66 per share

- 2023-06: $353.64 per share

- 2023-07: $377.89 per share

- 2023-08: $370.14 per share

- 2023-09: $305.32 per share

- 2023-10: $184.59 per share

- 2023-11: $213.80 per share

- 2023-12: $274.00 per share

- 2024-01: $267.32 per share

- 2024-02: $302.42 per share

- 2024-03: $327.92 per share

- 2024-04: $282.38 per share

- 2024-05: $257.21 per share

- 2024-06: $241.43 per share

- 2024-07: $231.88 per share

- 2024-08: $237.22 per share

- 2024-09: $254.32 per share

- 2024-10: $205.03 per share

- 2024-11: $232.77 per share

- 2024-12: $208.51 per share

- 2025-01: $219.11 per share

- 2025-02: $187.03 per share

- 2025-03: $158.86 per share

- 2025-04: $173.30 per share

- 2025-05: $180.94 per share

- 2025-06: $189.33 per share

- 2025-07: $129.01 per share

- 2025-08: $141.96 per share

- 2025-09: $125.22 per share

- 2025-10: $137.88 per share

- 2025-11: $147.19 per share

- 2025-12: $156.15 per share

- 2026-01: $163.03 per share

- 2026-02: $190.10 per share

- 2026-03: $171.43 per share

- 2026-04: $176.01 per share

- 2026-05: $174.95 per share

- 2026-06: $168.66 per share

- 2026-07: $169.16 per share

- 2026-08: $159.79 per share

- 2026-09: $145.35 per share

- 2026-10: $149.34 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $33.05 per share, central $43.95 per share, high $50.30 per share

- FY2017: low $43.04 per share, central $57.86 per share, high $66.49 per share

- FY2018: low $62.06 per share, central $84.99 per share, high $98.34 per share

- FY2019: low $76.76 per share, central $105.26 per share, high $121.86 per share

- FY2020: low $81.54 per share, central $111.56 per share, high $129.03 per share

- FY2021: low $137.79 per share, central $190.97 per share, high $221.93 per share

- FY2022: low $130.90 per share, central $181.94 per share, high $211.67 per share

- FY2023: low $137.85 per share, central $191.92 per share, high $223.40 per share

- FY2024: low $92.61 per share, central $123.98 per share, high $143.24 per share

- FY2025: low $104.96 per share, central $146.71 per share, high $169.99 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1097149/000109714926000014/algn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): 1,171,455 ALGN shares; USD 197,578,000 reported position value; 3.07% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# ALGN — Align Technology Inc.

Held by 1 investor · USD 197,578,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 168.66 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALGN

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Bill Ruane (https://gigainvestors.com/RC) | USD 197,578,000 | 3.1% | reduce -2.91% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2021 Q4: USD 197,154,000 · 1 holder · USD 657.18
- 2022 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q4: USD 7,442,116 · 1 holder · USD 273.99
- 2024 Q1: USD 9,467,090 · 1 holder · USD 327.91
- 2024 Q2: USD 7,241,027 · 1 holder · USD 241.44
- 2024 Q3: USD 8,391,110 · 1 holder · USD 254.33
- 2024 Q4: USD 8,967,181 · 1 holder · USD 208.51
- 2025 Q1: USD 7,170,146 · 1 holder · USD 158.86
- 2025 Q2: USD 8,776,960 · 1 holder · USD 189.33
- 2025 Q3: USD 5,720,970 · 1 holder · USD 125.21
- 2025 Q4: USD 190,898,684 · 1 holder · USD 156.15
- 2026 Q1: USD 206,836,295 · 1 holder · USD 171.43
- 2026 Q2: USD 197,578,000 · 1 holder · USD 168.66