# Antofagasta (ANTO.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ANTO.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:59.380Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 3,426.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 1,593.40 per share, central GBX 2,183.10 per share, high GBX 2,526.49 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 2,183.10 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:59.380Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.25×

- FY2017: 0.39×

- FY2018: 0.28×

- FY2019: 0.27×

- FY2020: 0.31×

- FY2021: 0.46×

- FY2022: 0.28×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.30×

- FY2025: 0.42×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 42.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 42.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 24.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.5%

- FY2017: 15.4%

- FY2018: 11.1%

- FY2019: 11.1%

- FY2020: 13.1%

- FY2021: 28.5%

- FY2022: 13.0%

- FY2023: 12.2%

- FY2024: 12.4%

- FY2025: 17.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.84×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 33.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 0.61×

- FY2023: 0.92×

- FY2024: 0.75×

- FY2025: 0.98×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.1% vs 12.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.12 to 0.85 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: $34B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 27.5%

- Per-share value change: $0.73

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.85

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.12

- FY2017: $0.76

- FY2018: $0.55

- FY2019: $0.51

- FY2020: $0.51

- FY2021: $1.31

- FY2022: $1.55

- FY2023: $0.85

- FY2024: $0.84

- FY2025: $1.38

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.26×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.49×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.4%

- FY2017: -9.5%

- FY2018: -5.4%

- FY2019: -10.9%

- FY2020: -9.3%

- FY2021: -13.8%

- FY2022: -1.9%

- FY2023: -7.6%

- FY2024: -6.4%

- FY2025: -7.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Feb 2026 · sales +30.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.598Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +30.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31/reports/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: $3.6B 

- FY2017: $4.7B 

- FY2018: $4.7B 

- FY2019: $5.0B 

- FY2020: $5.1B 

- FY2021: $7.5B 

- FY2022: $5.9B 

- FY2023: $6.3B 

- FY2024: $6.6B 

- FY2025: $8.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 50%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31/reports/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: 41.9% 

- FY2017: 50.4% 

- FY2018: 40.7% 

- FY2019: 40.3% 

- FY2020: 44.3% 

- FY2021: 58.2% 

- FY2022: 41.4% 

- FY2023: 42.0% 

- FY2024: 37.9% 

- FY2025: 50.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in copper; annual sales are USD 8.6 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31/reports/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: revenue 8620300000; grossProfit 4308026394; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ANTO.LSE: Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company produces copper cathodes and copper concentrates; molybdenum concentrates; and gold and silver by-products. It also provides rail and road cargo services to mining customers in northern Chile. In addition, the company has exploration projects in various countries. It has operations in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Spain, Germany, rest of Europe, Chile, rest of Latin America, the United States, Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, and rest of Asia. The company was incorporated in 1888 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Antofagasta plc is a subsidiary of Metalinvest Anstalt.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.9% to 50% during 2023–25; it earns 12.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 42%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.9%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31/reports/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 50%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07531739488870569],[2017,0.1538753281990951],[2018,0.11082330125750356],[2019,0.11067118823218533],[2020,0.13079030383529802],[2021,0.28524401178429615],[2022,0.1299452699423248],[2023,0.12211109521550938],[2024,0.12440852223460919],[2025,0.17877334790512295]]; median 0.127176896088467. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 33.9% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2016: growth capex 223700000; upkeep 578400000; owner earnings 119700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.8688387635756056.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2017: growth capex 320200000; upkeep 581100000; owner earnings 750600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4265920596855849.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 872900000; owner earnings 431300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2019: growth capex 164500000; upkeep 914300000; owner earnings 452600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3634555899248785.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2020: growth capex 258700000; upkeep 1048700000; owner earnings 464760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5566313796368018.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2021: growth capex 698800000; upkeep 1078700000; owner earnings 1258240000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5553789420142421.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1879200000; owner earnings 933661525.0856646. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: growth capex 853810151.8571978; upkeep 1275389848.1428022; owner earnings 765028562.2717761. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1160500325919622.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: growth capex 543694565.3638878; upkeep 1870905434.6361122; owner earnings 618492003.4291859. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.879064825979012.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31/reports/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: growth capex 2001529789; upkeep 1760272142; owner earnings 1324380725. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.511294865001905.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Incremental return on capital 0.3390697274346524, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Dividend observations: [[2016,30700000],[2017,252400000],[2018,467000000],[2019,470400000],[2020,131200000],[2021,710900000],[2022,1263000000],[2023,613300000],[2024,317500000],[2025,403695611]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 65.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ANTO.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 65.474 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17026386442840302. Price 3426; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.5634693155709141 → FY2025 1.3433556231773804. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 543.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 689.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 675.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 835.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 812.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 834.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 838.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 801.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 799.50 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 946.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,035.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 949.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 954.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 909.50 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,005.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 931.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 870.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 921.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 972.40 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,054.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 990.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,003.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 805.60 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 855.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 784.80 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 800.40 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 783.20 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 869.80 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 936.80 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 966.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 908.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 782.80 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 929.60 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 939.20 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 866.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 899.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 867.20 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 868.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 916.80 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 822.20 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 752.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 773.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 813.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 876.40 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 937.60 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,027.50 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,074.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 1,023.50 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 1,029.50 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 1,253.50 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 1,440.50 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 1,430.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 1,782.50 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 1,690.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 1,865.50 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 1,544.50 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 1,435.50 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 1,494.50 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 1,456.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 1,362.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 1,425.50 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 1,380.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 1,338.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 1,332.50 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 1,521.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 1,673.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 1,551.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 1,477.50 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,155.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 1,158.50 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 1,101.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 1,115.50 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 1,175.50 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 1,408.50 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 1,545.50 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 1,732.50 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 1,570.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 1,581.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 1,460.50 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 1,337.50 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 1,461.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 1,677.50 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 1,448.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 1,429.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 1,345.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 1,408.50 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 1,679.50 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 1,735.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 1,817.50 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 2,039.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 2,210.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 2,203.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 2,110.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 2,020.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 1,853.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 2,013.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 1,732.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 1,702.50 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 1,590.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 1,725.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 1,733.50 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 1,668.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 1,633.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 1,770.50 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 1,809.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 1,877.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 2,145.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 2,751.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 2,790.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 2,758.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 3,279.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 3,648.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 4,328.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 3,327.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 3,549.50 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 4,098.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 3,820.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 3,655.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 4,039.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 3,766.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 3,588.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2018: low GBX 268.48 per share, central GBX 286.50 per share, high GBX 310.49 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 537.98 per share, central GBX 590.09 per share, high GBX 659.45 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 663.34 per share, central GBX 717.18 per share, high GBX 788.85 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 844.02 per share, central GBX 926.10 per share, high GBX 1,031.76 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 582.72 per share, central GBX 644.28 per share, high GBX 726.22 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 798.75 per share, central GBX 886.87 per share, high GBX 1,004.18 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 869.85 per share, central GBX 961.99 per share, high GBX 1,084.65 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 1,636.47 per share, central GBX 2,226.16 per share, high GBX 2,569.54 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:43.989Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31/reports/213800MY6QVH4FVLD628-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-07.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations