# Axogen (AXGN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXGN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:42.769Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $35.63 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 10

- Operating margin variation: 0.59×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.13×

- FY2018: -0.24×

- FY2019: -0.29×

- FY2020: -0.21×

- FY2021: -0.20×

- FY2022: -0.21×

- FY2023: -0.13×

- FY2024: -0.02×

- FY2025: -0.03×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 7.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: -23.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -61.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 7.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 81.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 74.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -51.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -69.7%

- FY2017: -47.2%

- FY2018: -53.2%

- FY2019: -61.2%

- FY2020: -25.1%

- FY2021: -20.9%

- FY2022: -19.6%

- FY2023: -12.7%

- FY2024: -1.9%

- FY2025: -3.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$127M

- Net income, five-year total: -$103M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 26.1%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$46M

- FY2022: -$41M

- FY2023: -$22M

- FY2024: -$6.7M

- FY2025: -$11M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -53.2% vs -3.9%

- Per-share earnings: -0.47 to -0.34 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 5.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.9%

- Market cap gain: $1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$189M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 5.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.47

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.34

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $6.1M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$203M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -53.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -3.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.47

- FY2017: -$0.31

- FY2018: -$0.60

- FY2019: -$0.74

- FY2020: -$0.60

- FY2021: -$0.65

- FY2022: -$0.69

- FY2023: -$0.51

- FY2024: -$0.23

- FY2025: -$0.34

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -7.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3708.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.9%

- FY2017: -2.1%

- FY2018: -2.8%

- FY2019: -6.0%

- FY2020: -7.0%

- FY2021: -6.5%

- FY2022: -6.6%

- FY2023: -8.1%

- FY2024: -7.1%

- FY2025: -7.4%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 30% since Aug 2026 · "AxoGen Conference: AVANCE BLA Approval, Debt Paydown Fuel 2026 Growth Target of 18%+" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +11.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:21.294Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-08-05: Axogen Inc (NASDAQ:AXGN) Surges 15.8% After Q2 2025 Earnings Beat and Raised Guidance ([chartmill.com](https://www.chartmill.com/news/AXGN/Chartmill-32341-Axogen-Inc-NASDAQAXGN-Surges-158-After-Q2-2025-Earnings-Beat-and-Raised-Guidance))

- 2025-12-04: Axogen gets FDA OK for Avance’s biologics license application ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4528374-axogen-gets-fda-ok-for-avances-biologics-license-application?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-01-15: AxoGen Touts Post-BLA Growth Plan, 75%+ Gross Margin Outlook at J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axogen-touts-post-bla-growth-200740141.html))

- 2026-02-24: AxoGen Non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 misses by $0.03, revenue of $59.9M in-line ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4555717-axogen-non-gaap-eps-of-0_07-misses-by-0_03-revenue-of-59_9m-in-line?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-03-10: AxoGen Conference: AVANCE BLA Approval, Debt Paydown Fuel 2026 Growth Target of 18%+ ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axogen-conference-avance-bla-approval-090358795.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +11.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/805928/000080592826000031/axgn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $60M 

- FY2018: $84M 

- FY2019: $107M 

- FY2020: $112M 

- FY2021: $127M 

- FY2022: $139M 

- FY2023: $159M 

- FY2024: $187M 

- FY2025: $225M 

- FY2026: $251M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/805928/000080592826000031/axgn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 84.3% 

- FY2017: 84.6% 

- FY2018: 84.6% 

- FY2019: 83.7% 

- FY2020: 80.8% 

- FY2021: 82.0% 

- FY2022: 78.5% 

- FY2023: 76.6% 

- FY2024: 75.8% 

- FY2025: 74.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in medical devices; annual sales are USD 225.2 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/805928/000080592826000031/axgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 225208000; grossProfit 167353000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AXGN.US: Axogen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and commercialization of the technologies used for peripheral nerve regeneration and repair worldwide. The company offers Avance Nerve Graft, a processed nerve allograft intended for the surgical repair of peripheral nerve discontinuities; Axoguard Nerve Connector, a coaptation aid used to align and connect severed peripheral nerve ends in a tensionless repair; and Axoguard Nerve Protector, a product used to protect and wrap damaged peripheral nerves and reinforce reconstructed nerve gaps. It also provides Axoguard HA+ Nerve Protector, a surgical implant for non-constricting protection of the peripheral nerves; Axoguard Nerve Cap, a porcine submucosa ECM product; Avive+ Soft Tissue Matrix, a multi-layer amniotic membrane allograft; and Avance Method, a technique to process Avance Nerve Graft from donated human peripheral nerve tissue. In addition, the company offers peripheral nerve tissue recovery and acquisition, and testing, as well as donor medical review and release, debridement and other processing steps, packaging, and sterilization. It provides its products to hospitals, surgery centers and military hospitals, calling on surgeons, including plastic reconstructive surgeons, orthopedic and plastic hand surgeons, and certain oral and maxillofacial surgeons through independent in-country distributors. The company is headquartered in Alachua, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 74.3% to 76.6% during 2023–25; it lost 23% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 76.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 75.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/805928/000080592826000031/axgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.6967247166548315],[2017,-0.471738312405999],[2018,-0.532030223390276],[2019,-0.6115689319431092],[2020,-0.2510559721441595],[2021,-0.20933348624331452],[2022,-0.1961644808880196],[2023,-0.1265929979915331],[2024,-0.018666604366297416],[2025,-0.038530957943925234]]; median -0.230194729193737. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,670000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AXGN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.9800000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price is 7.3 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Closing price 35.63 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 4.890482065836492; price multiple 7.285580341639729. FY2025 cash earnings/share -0.24440684012552719. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $8.85 per share

- 2016-11: $8.35 per share

- 2016-12: $9.00 per share

- 2017-01: $10.90 per share

- 2017-02: $10.45 per share

- 2017-03: $10.45 per share

- 2017-04: $12.20 per share

- 2017-05: $14.85 per share

- 2017-06: $16.75 per share

- 2017-07: $15.80 per share

- 2017-08: $17.60 per share

- 2017-09: $19.35 per share

- 2017-10: $20.55 per share

- 2017-11: $26.70 per share

- 2017-12: $28.30 per share

- 2018-01: $27.80 per share

- 2018-02: $29.20 per share

- 2018-03: $36.50 per share

- 2018-04: $39.80 per share

- 2018-05: $49.10 per share

- 2018-06: $50.25 per share

- 2018-07: $44.93 per share

- 2018-08: $43.85 per share

- 2018-09: $36.85 per share

- 2018-10: $37.29 per share

- 2018-11: $33.48 per share

- 2018-12: $20.43 per share

- 2019-01: $16.50 per share

- 2019-02: $18.46 per share

- 2019-03: $21.06 per share

- 2019-04: $23.48 per share

- 2019-05: $20.93 per share

- 2019-06: $19.80 per share

- 2019-07: $17.98 per share

- 2019-08: $15.85 per share

- 2019-09: $12.48 per share

- 2019-10: $12.44 per share

- 2019-11: $17.33 per share

- 2019-12: $17.89 per share

- 2020-01: $12.36 per share

- 2020-02: $12.38 per share

- 2020-03: $10.40 per share

- 2020-04: $9.75 per share

- 2020-05: $9.70 per share

- 2020-06: $9.24 per share

- 2020-07: $11.37 per share

- 2020-08: $11.87 per share

- 2020-09: $11.63 per share

- 2020-10: $12.61 per share

- 2020-11: $14.29 per share

- 2020-12: $17.90 per share

- 2021-01: $17.35 per share

- 2021-02: $22.10 per share

- 2021-03: $20.26 per share

- 2021-04: $18.72 per share

- 2021-05: $20.30 per share

- 2021-06: $21.61 per share

- 2021-07: $20.37 per share

- 2021-08: $17.06 per share

- 2021-09: $15.80 per share

- 2021-10: $15.19 per share

- 2021-11: $9.57 per share

- 2021-12: $9.37 per share

- 2022-01: $8.71 per share

- 2022-02: $9.34 per share

- 2022-03: $7.94 per share

- 2022-04: $7.24 per share

- 2022-05: $9.67 per share

- 2022-06: $8.19 per share

- 2022-07: $9.32 per share

- 2022-08: $9.37 per share

- 2022-09: $11.92 per share

- 2022-10: $11.42 per share

- 2022-11: $10.95 per share

- 2022-12: $9.98 per share

- 2023-01: $9.47 per share

- 2023-02: $8.25 per share

- 2023-03: $9.45 per share

- 2023-04: $9.02 per share

- 2023-05: $8.50 per share

- 2023-06: $9.13 per share

- 2023-07: $8.64 per share

- 2023-08: $6.26 per share

- 2023-09: $5.00 per share

- 2023-10: $3.76 per share

- 2023-11: $6.55 per share

- 2023-12: $6.83 per share

- 2024-01: $9.67 per share

- 2024-02: $10.56 per share

- 2024-03: $8.07 per share

- 2024-04: $6.41 per share

- 2024-05: $6.83 per share

- 2024-06: $7.24 per share

- 2024-07: $8.78 per share

- 2024-08: $13.15 per share

- 2024-09: $14.02 per share

- 2024-10: $14.00 per share

- 2024-11: $13.90 per share

- 2024-12: $16.48 per share

- 2025-01: $18.21 per share

- 2025-02: $20.01 per share

- 2025-03: $18.50 per share

- 2025-04: $16.27 per share

- 2025-05: $10.89 per share

- 2025-06: $10.85 per share

- 2025-07: $13.09 per share

- 2025-08: $16.14 per share

- 2025-09: $17.84 per share

- 2025-10: $22.22 per share

- 2025-11: $28.65 per share

- 2025-12: $32.73 per share

- 2026-01: $34.85 per share

- 2026-02: $31.73 per share

- 2026-03: $33.13 per share

- 2026-04: $43.20 per share

- 2026-05: $39.48 per share

- 2026-06: $46.19 per share

- 2026-07: $42.21 per share

- 2026-08: $50.76 per share

- 2026-09: $41.92 per share

- 2026-10: $35.63 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/805928/000080592826000031/axgn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): 341,077 AXGN shares; USD 15,755,000 reported position value; 0.03% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): 22,000 AXGN shares; USD 1,016,000 reported position value; 0.01% of portfolio; hold; quarter 2026 Q2.

# AXGN — AxoGen Inc.

Held by 2 investors · USD 16,771,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 46.19 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXGN

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Matthew McLennan (https://gigainvestors.com/FE) | USD 15,755,000 | <0.1% | reduce -3.81% |
| Andrew Adams (https://gigainvestors.com/MPF) | USD 1,016,000 | <0.1% | hold |

## Total held by quarter

- 2024 Q1: USD 137,020 · 1 holder · USD 8.06
- 2024 Q2: USD 123,080 · 1 holder · USD 7.24
- 2024 Q3: USD 238,000 · 1 holder · USD 14.00
- 2024 Q4: USD 279,990 · 1 holder · USD 16.47
- 2025 Q1: USD 315,010 · 1 holder · USD 18.53
- 2025 Q2: USD 2,223,762 · 2 holders · USD 10.85
- 2025 Q3: USD 8,096,119 · 2 holders · USD 17.84
- 2025 Q4: USD 14,060,579 · 2 holders · USD 32.73
- 2026 Q1: USD 12,476,647 · 2 holders · USD 33.14
- 2026 Q2: USD 16,771,000 · 2 holders · USD 46.19