# Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3.SA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXIA3.SA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2026.

Listing currency: BRL. Reporting currency: BRL.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: BRL 59.14 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low BRL 28.37 per share, central BRL 29.53 per share, high BRL 30.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value BRL 29.53 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.1% at the stated quote. About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 17.0%). required return 17.0% a year (BR 10-year bond 13.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.43×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.56×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.24×

- FY2021: 0.36×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.34×

- FY2025: 0.23×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.28×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 13.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 13.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 56.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 42.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 11.5%

- FY2017: 4.1%

- FY2018: 12.1%

- FY2019: 5.5%

- FY2020: 5.9%

- FY2021: 8.3%

- FY2022: 3.0%

- FY2023: 7.0%

- FY2024: 8.2%

- FY2025: 4.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: BRL 872M

- Net income, five-year total: BRL 30B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 34.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 38.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 33.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: -10.72×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.30×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.5% vs 7.0%

- Per-share earnings: -1.11 to 2.92 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 5.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 7.5%

- Market cap gain: BRL 83B

- Cumulative retained earnings: BRL 6.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 5.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 7.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: BRL 4.03

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: BRL -1.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: BRL 2.92

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.60

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: BRL 80B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: BRL 58B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: BRL 2.53

- FY2017: BRL -1.11

- FY2018: BRL 9.85

- FY2019: BRL 4.75

- FY2020: BRL 4.07

- FY2021: BRL 3.60

- FY2022: BRL 1.15

- FY2023: BRL 2.01

- FY2024: BRL 4.15

- FY2025: BRL 2.92

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -2.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 3.34×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.21×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.65×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.9%

- FY2017: -2.3%

- FY2018: 5.9%

- FY2019: 4.3%

- FY2020: 1.2%

- FY2021: 7.4%

- FY2022: -2.5%

- FY2023: -1.4%

- FY2024: -0.7%

- FY2025: -2.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.1% a year for ten years · sales +8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.639Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: BRL 38B 

- FY2018: BRL 25B 

- FY2019: BRL 28B 

- FY2020: BRL 29B 

- FY2021: BRL 38B 

- FY2022: BRL 34B 

- FY2023: BRL 37B 

- FY2024: BRL 40B 

- FY2025: BRL 41B 

- FY2026: BRL 45B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 42.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 73.3% 

- FY2017: 59.4% 

- FY2018: 77.8% 

- FY2019: 75.6% 

- FY2020: 53.8% 

- FY2021: 68.2% 

- FY2022: 53.5% 

- FY2023: 49.7% 

- FY2024: 44.2% 

- FY2025: 42.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities renewable; annual sales are BRL 41.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2025: revenue 41281596000; grossProfit 17717190000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 42.9% to 49.7% during 2023–25; it earns 6.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 49.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.11524092199587356],[2017,0.04052674819880832],[2018,0.1212166113181727],[2019,0.05545163360673284],[2020,0.058872037583179875],[2021,0.08253279709485498],[2022,0.03044395854358501],[2023,0.06977132339210237],[2024,0.08226213694984714],[2025,0.04542216580216198]]; median 0.06432168048764113. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back BRL 36.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1770165000; owner earnings 3499519000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1261045000; owner earnings 13585144000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2019: growth capex 212773000; upkeep 1807429000; owner earnings 7217430200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.029480437510847005.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2020: growth capex 533920000; upkeep 1862869000; owner earnings 6176675200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08644132688084359.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2021: growth capex 1248959000; upkeep 1443285000; owner earnings 5465444200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22851921166810193.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2023: growth capex 499799000; upkeep 3621342000; owner earnings 4506424600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11090810217927534.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3525365000; owner earnings 10804014400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2508723000; owner earnings 8528951000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,5790000],[2017,381436000],[2018,64499000],[2019,1183146000],[2020,2593945000],[2021,3747606000],[2022,1490058000],[2023,864192000],[2024,1307858000],[2025,12186149000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 36728000 BRL.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 33.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXIA3.SA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 33.58 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:27.040Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.20470637172356487. Price 59.14; FX 1; discount 0.1695; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -10.666523723579287 → FY2025 3.795212638144042. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (BRL per share)

- 2016-10: BRL 23.69 per share

- 2016-11: BRL 25.64 per share

- 2016-12: BRL 22.80 per share

- 2017-01: BRL 20.82 per share

- 2017-02: BRL 21.48 per share

- 2017-03: BRL 17.09 per share

- 2017-04: BRL 18.05 per share

- 2017-05: BRL 13.74 per share

- 2017-06: BRL 12.45 per share

- 2017-07: BRL 13.49 per share

- 2017-08: BRL 17.61 per share

- 2017-09: BRL 19.75 per share

- 2017-10: BRL 22.04 per share

- 2017-11: BRL 18.72 per share

- 2017-12: BRL 19.33 per share

- 2018-01: BRL 20.32 per share

- 2018-02: BRL 24.76 per share

- 2018-03: BRL 20.99 per share

- 2018-04: BRL 19.06 per share

- 2018-05: BRL 14.62 per share

- 2018-06: BRL 12.19 per share

- 2018-07: BRL 17.26 per share

- 2018-08: BRL 15.81 per share

- 2018-09: BRL 15.50 per share

- 2018-10: BRL 23.49 per share

- 2018-11: BRL 24.42 per share

- 2018-12: BRL 24.22 per share

- 2019-01: BRL 37.39 per share

- 2019-02: BRL 36.97 per share

- 2019-03: BRL 36.68 per share

- 2019-04: BRL 32.69 per share

- 2019-05: BRL 34.40 per share

- 2019-06: BRL 35.24 per share

- 2019-07: BRL 39.38 per share

- 2019-08: BRL 45.92 per share

- 2019-09: BRL 40.13 per share

- 2019-10: BRL 39.55 per share

- 2019-11: BRL 34.83 per share

- 2019-12: BRL 37.80 per share

- 2020-01: BRL 39.22 per share

- 2020-02: BRL 34.53 per share

- 2020-03: BRL 23.86 per share

- 2020-04: BRL 24.25 per share

- 2020-05: BRL 27.97 per share

- 2020-06: BRL 31.00 per share

- 2020-07: BRL 36.94 per share

- 2020-08: BRL 35.51 per share

- 2020-09: BRL 30.32 per share

- 2020-10: BRL 31.06 per share

- 2020-11: BRL 31.06 per share

- 2020-12: BRL 36.67 per share

- 2021-01: BRL 28.69 per share

- 2021-02: BRL 32.41 per share

- 2021-03: BRL 34.27 per share

- 2021-04: BRL 36.79 per share

- 2021-05: BRL 43.84 per share

- 2021-06: BRL 43.17 per share

- 2021-07: BRL 40.25 per share

- 2021-08: BRL 37.63 per share

- 2021-09: BRL 38.51 per share

- 2021-10: BRL 33.83 per share

- 2021-11: BRL 32.63 per share

- 2021-12: BRL 33.41 per share

- 2022-01: BRL 35.29 per share

- 2022-02: BRL 34.77 per share

- 2022-03: BRL 37.98 per share

- 2022-04: BRL 40.48 per share

- 2022-05: BRL 42.14 per share

- 2022-06: BRL 46.20 per share

- 2022-07: BRL 45.81 per share

- 2022-08: BRL 46.11 per share

- 2022-09: BRL 42.97 per share

- 2022-10: BRL 49.82 per share

- 2022-11: BRL 47.50 per share

- 2022-12: BRL 42.12 per share

- 2023-01: BRL 40.65 per share

- 2023-02: BRL 34.32 per share

- 2023-03: BRL 33.28 per share

- 2023-04: BRL 33.85 per share

- 2023-05: BRL 35.30 per share

- 2023-06: BRL 39.75 per share

- 2023-07: BRL 38.65 per share

- 2023-08: BRL 35.26 per share

- 2023-09: BRL 36.89 per share

- 2023-10: BRL 34.84 per share

- 2023-11: BRL 40.86 per share

- 2023-12: BRL 42.43 per share

- 2024-01: BRL 40.81 per share

- 2024-02: BRL 43.50 per share

- 2024-03: BRL 41.70 per share

- 2024-04: BRL 37.86 per share

- 2024-05: BRL 34.79 per share

- 2024-06: BRL 35.85 per share

- 2024-07: BRL 39.57 per share

- 2024-08: BRL 41.75 per share

- 2024-09: BRL 39.35 per share

- 2024-10: BRL 37.97 per share

- 2024-11: BRL 34.37 per share

- 2024-12: BRL 34.13 per share

- 2025-01: BRL 36.09 per share

- 2025-02: BRL 38.22 per share

- 2025-03: BRL 40.79 per share

- 2025-04: BRL 43.95 per share

- 2025-05: BRL 41.96 per share

- 2025-06: BRL 40.29 per share

- 2025-07: BRL 37.81 per share

- 2025-08: BRL 45.02 per share

- 2025-09: BRL 52.52 per share

- 2025-10: BRL 55.72 per share

- 2025-11: BRL 62.50 per share

- 2025-12: BRL 50.61 per share

- 2026-01: BRL 54.37 per share

- 2026-02: BRL 61.27 per share

- 2026-03: BRL 58.56 per share

- 2026-04: BRL 62.05 per share

- 2026-05: BRL 52.43 per share

- 2026-06: BRL 54.38 per share

- 2026-07: BRL 52.82 per share

- 2026-08: BRL 53.12 per share

- 2026-09: BRL 55.35 per share

- 2026-10: BRL 58.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (BRL per share)

- FY2019: low BRL 16.39 per share, central BRL 16.81 per share, high BRL 17.29 per share

- FY2020: low BRL 32.37 per share, central BRL 33.98 per share, high BRL 35.84 per share

- FY2021: low BRL 41.19 per share, central BRL 44.01 per share, high BRL 46.55 per share

- FY2022: low BRL 28.83 per share, central BRL 30.12 per share, high BRL 31.60 per share

- FY2023: low BRL 22.36 per share, central BRL 23.33 per share, high BRL 24.46 per share

- FY2024: low BRL 27.90 per share, central BRL 28.86 per share, high BRL 29.96 per share

- FY2025: low BRL 27.90 per share, central BRL 28.99 per share, high BRL 30.25 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:12.978Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations