# Ball (BALL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BALL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:46.835Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $62.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $35.06 per share, central $39.79 per share, high $46.08 per share. Buy at or below the central value $39.79 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:46.835Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.3% at the stated quote. About 7.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.08×

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.1%

- FY2017: 14.9%

- FY2018: 13.1%

- FY2019: 18.5%

- FY2020: 20.2%

- FY2021: 15.3%

- FY2022: 12.8%

- FY2023: 16.4%

- FY2024: 13.0%

- FY2025: 16.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 16.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 0.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.92×

- FY2022: 0.53×

- FY2023: 0.49×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 1.16×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.1% vs 16.1%

- Per-share earnings: 1.00 to 3.30 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.7%

- Market cap gain: $2.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $7.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.2%

- Per-share value change: $2.31

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.00

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.30

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.58

- Average buyback yield: 3.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $5.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.81

- FY2017: $1.05

- FY2018: $1.29

- FY2019: $1.66

- FY2020: $1.76

- FY2021: $2.65

- FY2022: $2.25

- FY2023: $2.23

- FY2024: $13.00

- FY2025: $3.30

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.38×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.99×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.4%

- FY2017: -6.4%

- FY2018: -6.7%

- FY2019: -5.7%

- FY2020: -4.6%

- FY2021: -4.5%

- FY2022: 2.2%

- FY2023: -6.0%

- FY2024: 22.1%

- FY2025: -1.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 35% since Jan 2022 · "Increases in productivity, combined with potential surplus capacity, have maintained competitive pricing pressures." (SEC filing, Feb 2026) · sales +11.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:22.143Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-05: BALL Q3 Deep Dive: Solid Beverage Can Volumes and Operational Gains Drive Margin Expansion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ball-q3-deep-dive-solid-053122439.html))

- 2026-02-03: BALL's Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Up Y/Y on Higher Volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/balls-q4-earnings-beat-estimates-170300250.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +11.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/9389/000110465926017410/ball-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $9.1B 

- FY2017: $11B 

- FY2018: $12B 

- FY2019: $11B 

- FY2020: $12B 

- FY2021: $14B 

- FY2022: $15B 

- FY2023: $14B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $13B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 14.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/9389/000110465926017410/ball-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 14.9% 

- FY2017: 13.9% 

- FY2018: 13.5% 

- FY2019: 14.5% 

- FY2020: 16.0% 

- FY2021: 14.6% 

- FY2022: 16.8% 

- FY2023: 19.0% 

- FY2024: 20.7% 

- FY2025: 14.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaging & containers; annual sales are USD 13.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/9389/000110465926017410/ball-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 13161000000; grossProfit 1956000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BALL.US: Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells aluminum beverage containers to fillers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other beverages. It manufactures and sells extruded aluminum aerosol containers, recloseable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. The company was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Westminster, Colorado.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.9% to 20.7% during 2023–25; it earns 15.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 19%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/9389/000110465926017410/ball-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1309952606635071],[2017,0.14925714778587412],[2018,0.13130814148853515],[2019,0.18479477111229475],[2020,0.20204462746600266],[2021,0.15287558959147568],[2022,0.12800098434962137],[2023,0.16373912370125002],[2024,0.13045324496844046],[2025,0.16094253597907499]]; median 0.1510663686886749. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 153000000; upkeep 453000000; owner earnings 263000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5817490494296578.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 556000000; owner earnings 547000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 114000000; upkeep 702000000; owner earnings 454000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2511013215859031.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 598000000; owner earnings 646000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 132016286.37543583; upkeep 980983713.6245642; owner earnings 272016286.3754358. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4853249345269991.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 955878425.1243308; upkeep 770121574.8756692; owner earnings 807878425.1243308. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1831958812085162.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 642438618.8887076; upkeep 1008561381.1112924; owner earnings 382438618.88870764. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.6798476596205412.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1045000000; owner earnings 348000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 484000000; owner earnings 4144000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/9389/000110465926017410/ball-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 474000000; owner earnings 1060000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,83000000],[2017,129000000],[2018,137000000],[2019,182000000],[2020,198000000],[2021,229000000],[2022,254000000],[2023,252000000],[2024,244000000],[2025,220000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/9389/000110465926017410/ball-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 1321000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BALL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.256 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"General Risks" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/9389/000110465926017410/ball-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-19); General Risks

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 39.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08325927970518221. Price 62.8; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.1368949668047438 → FY2025 3.8409693737045787. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $38.54 per share

- 2016-11: $37.53 per share

- 2016-12: $37.54 per share

- 2017-01: $38.13 per share

- 2017-02: $36.77 per share

- 2017-03: $37.13 per share

- 2017-04: $38.45 per share

- 2017-05: $40.90 per share

- 2017-06: $42.21 per share

- 2017-07: $41.90 per share

- 2017-08: $39.99 per share

- 2017-09: $41.30 per share

- 2017-10: $42.93 per share

- 2017-11: $39.91 per share

- 2017-12: $37.85 per share

- 2018-01: $38.28 per share

- 2018-02: $39.95 per share

- 2018-03: $39.71 per share

- 2018-04: $40.09 per share

- 2018-05: $36.95 per share

- 2018-06: $35.55 per share

- 2018-07: $38.97 per share

- 2018-08: $41.88 per share

- 2018-09: $43.99 per share

- 2018-10: $44.80 per share

- 2018-11: $49.11 per share

- 2018-12: $45.98 per share

- 2019-01: $52.28 per share

- 2019-02: $54.78 per share

- 2019-03: $57.86 per share

- 2019-04: $59.94 per share

- 2019-05: $61.39 per share

- 2019-06: $69.99 per share

- 2019-07: $71.48 per share

- 2019-08: $80.41 per share

- 2019-09: $72.81 per share

- 2019-10: $69.97 per share

- 2019-11: $66.06 per share

- 2019-12: $64.67 per share

- 2020-01: $72.18 per share

- 2020-02: $70.46 per share

- 2020-03: $64.66 per share

- 2020-04: $65.59 per share

- 2020-05: $71.26 per share

- 2020-06: $69.49 per share

- 2020-07: $73.63 per share

- 2020-08: $80.37 per share

- 2020-09: $83.12 per share

- 2020-10: $89.00 per share

- 2020-11: $96.01 per share

- 2020-12: $93.18 per share

- 2021-01: $88.02 per share

- 2021-02: $85.39 per share

- 2021-03: $84.74 per share

- 2021-04: $93.64 per share

- 2021-05: $82.16 per share

- 2021-06: $81.02 per share

- 2021-07: $80.88 per share

- 2021-08: $95.96 per share

- 2021-09: $89.97 per share

- 2021-10: $91.48 per share

- 2021-11: $93.45 per share

- 2021-12: $96.27 per share

- 2022-01: $97.10 per share

- 2022-02: $89.74 per share

- 2022-03: $90.00 per share

- 2022-04: $81.16 per share

- 2022-05: $70.89 per share

- 2022-06: $68.77 per share

- 2022-07: $73.42 per share

- 2022-08: $55.81 per share

- 2022-09: $48.32 per share

- 2022-10: $49.39 per share

- 2022-11: $56.08 per share

- 2022-12: $51.14 per share

- 2023-01: $58.24 per share

- 2023-02: $56.21 per share

- 2023-03: $55.11 per share

- 2023-04: $53.18 per share

- 2023-05: $51.16 per share

- 2023-06: $58.21 per share

- 2023-07: $58.69 per share

- 2023-08: $54.45 per share

- 2023-09: $49.78 per share

- 2023-10: $48.15 per share

- 2023-11: $55.29 per share

- 2023-12: $57.52 per share

- 2024-01: $55.45 per share

- 2024-02: $64.02 per share

- 2024-03: $67.36 per share

- 2024-04: $69.57 per share

- 2024-05: $69.43 per share

- 2024-06: $60.02 per share

- 2024-07: $63.83 per share

- 2024-08: $63.81 per share

- 2024-09: $67.91 per share

- 2024-10: $59.25 per share

- 2024-11: $62.16 per share

- 2024-12: $55.13 per share

- 2025-01: $55.70 per share

- 2025-02: $52.69 per share

- 2025-03: $52.07 per share

- 2025-04: $51.94 per share

- 2025-05: $53.58 per share

- 2025-06: $56.09 per share

- 2025-07: $57.26 per share

- 2025-08: $52.64 per share

- 2025-09: $50.42 per share

- 2025-10: $47.00 per share

- 2025-11: $49.53 per share

- 2025-12: $52.97 per share

- 2026-01: $56.87 per share

- 2026-02: $67.13 per share

- 2026-03: $59.11 per share

- 2026-04: $61.08 per share

- 2026-05: $54.67 per share

- 2026-06: $62.40 per share

- 2026-07: $64.90 per share

- 2026-08: $62.97 per share

- 2026-09: $56.03 per share

- 2026-10: $62.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $13.23 per share, central $14.98 per share, high $17.19 per share

- FY2017: low $14.56 per share, central $17.64 per share, high $20.46 per share

- FY2018: low $15.47 per share, central $17.41 per share, high $20.00 per share

- FY2019: low $18.98 per share, central $20.96 per share, high $23.60 per share

- FY2020: low $18.47 per share, central $20.55 per share, high $23.31 per share

- FY2021: low $25.76 per share, central $31.88 per share, high $37.06 per share

- FY2022: low $21.21 per share, central $24.03 per share, high $27.79 per share

- FY2023: low $13.36 per share, central $15.02 per share, high $17.23 per share

- FY2024: low $12.55 per share, central $13.99 per share, high $15.90 per share

- FY2025: low $33.66 per share, central $37.83 per share, high $43.38 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/9389/000110465926017410/ball-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations



# BALL — Ball Corp.

Held by 1 investor · USD 49,475,070 total · 2026 Q1 · reported price USD 59.11 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BALL

## Holders (2026 Q1)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| David Tepper (https://gigainvestors.com/AM) | USD 49,475,070 | 0.8% | reduce -30.25% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2019 Q2: USD 210,000 · 1 holder · USD 70.00
- 2019 Q3: USD 2,257,110 · 1 holder · USD 72.81
- 2019 Q4: USD 2,716,140 · 1 holder · USD 64.67
- 2020 Q1: USD 2,973,900 · 1 holder · USD 64.65
- 2020 Q2: USD 3,197,000 · 1 holder · USD 69.50
- 2020 Q3: USD 3,823,980 · 1 holder · USD 83.13
- 2020 Q4: USD 4,285,820 · 1 holder · USD 93.17
- 2021 Q1: USD 3,898,040 · 1 holder · USD 84.74
- 2021 Q2: USD 3,726,920 · 1 holder · USD 81.02
- 2021 Q3: USD 4,139,080 · 1 holder · USD 89.98
- 2021 Q4: USD 4,427,960 · 1 holder · USD 96.26
- 2022 Q1: USD 4,140,000 · 1 holder · USD 90.00
- 2022 Q2: USD 180,673,692 · 2 holders · USD 68.78
- 2022 Q3: USD 152,253,179 · 2 holders · USD 48.32
- 2022 Q4: USD 161,803,380 · 2 holders · USD 51.14
- 2023 Q1: USD 166,092,742 · 2 holders · USD 55.12
- 2023 Q2: USD 179,437,317 · 2 holders · USD 58.22
- 2023 Q3: USD 158,200,442 · 2 holders · USD 49.78
- 2023 Q4: USD 178,534,365 · 2 holders · USD 57.53
- 2024 Q1: USD 245,508,686 · 3 holders · USD 67.36
- 2024 Q2: USD 153,886,538 · 2 holders · USD 60.02
- 2024 Q3: USD 158,798,876 · 2 holders · USD 67.91
- 2024 Q4: USD 5,262,172 · 2 holders · USD 55.14
- 2025 Q1: USD 2,656,080 · 1 holder · USD 52.08
- 2025 Q2: USD 2,861,100 · 1 holder · USD 56.10
- 2025 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2025 Q4: USD 63,564,000 · 1 holder · USD 52.97
- 2026 Q1: USD 49,475,070 · 1 holder · USD 59.11
- 2026 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders