# Brown-Forman (BF-A.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BF-A

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:53.103Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $29.13 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $18.98 per share, central $21.53 per share, high $24.92 per share. Buy at or below the central value $21.53 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:53.103Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.1% at the stated quote. About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.08×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.33×

- FY2018: 0.32×

- FY2019: 0.34×

- FY2020: 0.32×

- FY2021: 0.34×

- FY2022: 0.31×

- FY2023: 0.27×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.29×

- FY2026: 0.28×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 26.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 19.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 60.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 60.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 27.4%

- FY2018: 26.6%

- FY2019: 29.8%

- FY2020: 28.4%

- FY2021: 29.6%

- FY2022: 26.8%

- FY2023: 19.9%

- FY2024: 19.2%

- FY2025: 19.6%

- FY2026: 20.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -12.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 14.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 72.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 0.86×

- FY2025: 0.91×

- FY2026: 0.98×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 27.4% vs 19.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.48 to 1.84 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: -$11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $528M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.7%

- Per-share value change: $0.36

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.48

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.84

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.54

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 27.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 19.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $1.37

- FY2018: $1.48

- FY2019: $1.73

- FY2020: $1.72

- FY2021: $1.88

- FY2022: $1.74

- FY2023: $1.63

- FY2024: $2.15

- FY2025: $1.84

- FY2026: $1.53

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.40×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.61×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.6%

- FY2018: 1.7%

- FY2019: 0.7%

- FY2020: 1.8%

- FY2021: 1.3%

- FY2022: -1.5%

- FY2023: 1.8%

- FY2024: 4.6%

- FY2025: 3.4%

- FY2026: -3.6%

## Holders

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 60% since Nov 2022 · "Brown-Forman (BF-B) Struggles with Weak Spirits Demand and Canada Headwinds" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales -1.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:23.319Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-05: Brown-Forman Stock Plunges After Jack-Daniels Maker Forecasts Tough Year ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/557f8ef0-9751-3e74-a94e-f330d5aa19ee/brown-forman-stock-plunges.html))

- 2025-08-26: Brown-Forman Q1 Estimates Cut on Weak Consumer Takeaway, Korbel Removal, Needham Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brown-forman-q1-estimates-cut-194923117.html))

- 2026-03-05: Brown-Forman's Outlook Weighed by Cost Pressures and Whiskey Oversupply, Morgan Stanley Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brown-forman-apos-outlook-weighed-155524486.html))

- 2026-05-02: Brown-Forman Backs Independence With U.S. Distribution Overhaul And Lower Price ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/brown-forman-backs-independence-u-221037256.html))

- 2026-06-04: Brown-Forman Quarterly Earnings Surprisingly Fall; Whiskey Maker Sees Flat Full-Year Organic Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/brown-forman-quarterly-earnings-surprisingly-143528111.html))

- 2026-09-03: Brown-Forman (BF-B) Struggles with Weak Spirits Demand and Canada Headwinds ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/brown-forman-bf-b-struggles-015117197.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -1.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm; observed 2026-06-12.

- FY2017: $3.0B 

- FY2018: $3.2B 

- FY2019: $3.3B 

- FY2020: $3.4B 

- FY2021: $3.5B 

- FY2022: $3.9B 

- FY2023: $4.2B 

- FY2024: $4.2B 

- FY2025: $4.0B 

- FY2026: $3.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 60.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm; observed 2026-06-12.

- FY2017: 67.5% 

- FY2018: 67.8% 

- FY2019: 65.2% 

- FY2020: 63.2% 

- FY2021: 60.5% 

- FY2022: 60.8% 

- FY2023: 59.0% 

- FY2024: 60.5% 

- FY2025: 58.9% 

- FY2026: 60.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages wineries & distilleries; annual sales are USD 3.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: revenue 3928000000; grossProfit 2378000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 58.9% to 60.5% during 2024–26; it earns 26.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 60.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 58.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 60.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.2744405343792619],[2018,0.2656796208260372],[2019,0.2976418974499589],[2020,0.2842368461343144],[2021,0.29641013398585536],[2022,0.26819720902142435],[2023,0.19946902654867257],[2024,0.19187345050975535],[2025,0.1963856259284341],[2026,0.20639754697360732]]; median 0.26693841492373077. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 61% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-12); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.6050274487142444],[2022,0.6079328756674295],[2023,0.5898770104068117]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 400 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 112000000; owner earnings 615000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2018: growth capex 53073752.83430658; upkeep 73926247.16569342; owner earnings 707073752.8343066. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07506112710528476.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2019: growth capex 16938657.511527807; upkeep 102061342.4884722; owner earnings 804938657.5115278. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.021043414120392425.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2020: growth capex 9200565.523992836; upkeep 103799434.47600716; owner earnings 797200565.5239928. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.011541092570531968.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 62000000; owner earnings 918000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2022: growth capex 59000000; upkeep 79000000; owner earnings 838000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07040572792362769.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2023: growth capex 71057424.62844378; upkeep 111942575.37155622; owner earnings 751057424.6284437. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09460984246790005.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 228000000; owner earnings 883000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 167000000; owner earnings 789000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 107000000; owner earnings 700000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); Dividend observations: [[2017,274000000],[2018,773000000],[2019,310000000],[2020,325000000],[2021,338000000],[2022,831000000],[2023,378000000],[2024,404000000],[2025,420000000],[2026,427000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: cash repurchases 400000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 77% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BF-A.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 77.047 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Production facility disruption could adversely affect our business." (SEC filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm (filed 2026-06-12); Production facility disruption could adversely affect our business.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.8% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 2.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05519875153877274. Price 29.13; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.9874681809281378 → FY2026 1.4997868160168661. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $48.50 per share

- 2016-11: $47.24 per share

- 2016-12: $46.25 per share

- 2017-01: $46.78 per share

- 2017-02: $49.85 per share

- 2017-03: $47.07 per share

- 2017-04: $48.06 per share

- 2017-05: $53.04 per share

- 2017-06: $49.30 per share

- 2017-07: $51.54 per share

- 2017-08: $55.62 per share

- 2017-09: $55.69 per share

- 2017-10: $57.33 per share

- 2017-11: $60.31 per share

- 2017-12: $67.24 per share

- 2018-01: $69.00 per share

- 2018-02: $68.00 per share

- 2018-03: $53.33 per share

- 2018-04: $53.37 per share

- 2018-05: $54.92 per share

- 2018-06: $48.86 per share

- 2018-07: $53.27 per share

- 2018-08: $52.64 per share

- 2018-09: $50.80 per share

- 2018-10: $46.37 per share

- 2018-11: $48.61 per share

- 2018-12: $47.42 per share

- 2019-01: $47.03 per share

- 2019-02: $49.30 per share

- 2019-03: $51.17 per share

- 2019-04: $52.30 per share

- 2019-05: $49.21 per share

- 2019-06: $55.00 per share

- 2019-07: $53.36 per share

- 2019-08: $57.57 per share

- 2019-09: $59.75 per share

- 2019-10: $62.15 per share

- 2019-11: $63.80 per share

- 2019-12: $62.77 per share

- 2020-01: $64.27 per share

- 2020-02: $58.69 per share

- 2020-03: $51.38 per share

- 2020-04: $56.72 per share

- 2020-05: $59.35 per share

- 2020-06: $57.57 per share

- 2020-07: $63.24 per share

- 2020-08: $66.48 per share

- 2020-09: $68.68 per share

- 2020-10: $62.75 per share

- 2020-11: $73.73 per share

- 2020-12: $73.47 per share

- 2021-01: $66.12 per share

- 2021-02: $66.59 per share

- 2021-03: $63.67 per share

- 2021-04: $71.35 per share

- 2021-05: $75.00 per share

- 2021-06: $70.50 per share

- 2021-07: $66.89 per share

- 2021-08: $66.20 per share

- 2021-09: $62.67 per share

- 2021-10: $64.03 per share

- 2021-11: $65.67 per share

- 2021-12: $67.79 per share

- 2022-01: $62.64 per share

- 2022-02: $61.04 per share

- 2022-03: $62.74 per share

- 2022-04: $62.42 per share

- 2022-05: $63.13 per share

- 2022-06: $67.64 per share

- 2022-07: $72.40 per share

- 2022-08: $70.57 per share

- 2022-09: $67.56 per share

- 2022-10: $68.77 per share

- 2022-11: $72.99 per share

- 2022-12: $65.76 per share

- 2023-01: $66.50 per share

- 2023-02: $64.92 per share

- 2023-03: $65.19 per share

- 2023-04: $65.88 per share

- 2023-05: $62.85 per share

- 2023-06: $68.07 per share

- 2023-07: $71.91 per share

- 2023-08: $67.23 per share

- 2023-09: $58.10 per share

- 2023-10: $57.42 per share

- 2023-11: $60.23 per share

- 2023-12: $59.59 per share

- 2024-01: $56.37 per share

- 2024-02: $59.94 per share

- 2024-03: $52.95 per share

- 2024-04: $49.07 per share

- 2024-05: $45.80 per share

- 2024-06: $44.13 per share

- 2024-07: $45.59 per share

- 2024-08: $45.75 per share

- 2024-09: $48.08 per share

- 2024-10: $43.58 per share

- 2024-11: $41.36 per share

- 2024-12: $37.69 per share

- 2025-01: $33.32 per share

- 2025-02: $33.03 per share

- 2025-03: $33.47 per share

- 2025-04: $34.61 per share

- 2025-05: $33.23 per share

- 2025-06: $27.47 per share

- 2025-07: $28.64 per share

- 2025-08: $30.35 per share

- 2025-09: $26.91 per share

- 2025-10: $27.12 per share

- 2025-11: $28.51 per share

- 2025-12: $26.31 per share

- 2026-01: $27.83 per share

- 2026-02: $29.36 per share

- 2026-03: $26.79 per share

- 2026-04: $26.28 per share

- 2026-05: $26.73 per share

- 2026-06: $27.36 per share

- 2026-07: $29.22 per share

- 2026-08: $27.24 per share

- 2026-09: $26.83 per share

- 2026-10: $29.13 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $15.53 per share, central $19.81 per share, high $23.10 per share

- FY2018: low $16.90 per share, central $21.14 per share, high $24.61 per share

- FY2019: low $18.75 per share, central $23.72 per share, high $27.62 per share

- FY2020: low $21.54 per share, central $27.21 per share, high $31.58 per share

- FY2021: low $20.90 per share, central $23.48 per share, high $26.90 per share

- FY2022: low $22.85 per share, central $25.77 per share, high $29.66 per share

- FY2023: low $25.34 per share, central $31.28 per share, high $36.39 per share

- FY2024: low $21.15 per share, central $23.96 per share, high $27.70 per share

- FY2025: low $21.39 per share, central $25.77 per share, high $29.90 per share

- FY2026: low $18.75 per share, central $21.27 per share, high $24.62 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:31.658Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14693/000001469326000024/bfb-20260430.htm); period 2026-04-30, filed 2026-06-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): 1,597,815 BF.A shares; USD 43,716,000 reported position value; 0.49% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): 639,282 BF.B shares; USD 17,037,000 reported position value; 0.19% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): 2,134,789 BF.A shares; USD 58,408,000 reported position value; 2.22% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): 1,379,324 BF.B shares; USD 36,759,000 reported position value; 1.4% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): 843,000 BF.A shares; USD 23,064,000 reported position value; 0.18% of portfolio; hold; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): 474,187 BF.B shares; USD 12,637,000 reported position value; 0.1% of portfolio; hold; quarter 2026 Q2.