# The Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BKG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 3,328.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 5,730.16 per share, central GBX 6,372.14 per share, high GBX 7,226.75 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 6,372.14 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 20.0% at the stated quote. About 20.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.28×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.26×

- FY2020: 0.24×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- FY2026: 0.19×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 25.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 32.7%

- FY2018: 35.3%

- FY2019: 31.6%

- FY2020: 19.3%

- FY2021: 20.0%

- FY2022: 15.3%

- FY2023: 13.1%

- FY2024: 11.3%

- FY2025: 11.3%

- FY2026: 9.7%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 2.1B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 2.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -22.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 8.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 68.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 166.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.01×

- FY2026: 1.01×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 32.7% vs 11.3%

- Per-share earnings: 4.97 to 3.78 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 1.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -3.4%

- Per-share value change: GBP -1.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 4.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 3.78

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.18

- Average buyback yield: 3.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 4.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 32.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 4.97

- FY2018: GBP 6.09

- FY2019: GBP 5.17

- FY2020: GBP 3.46

- FY2021: GBP 3.78

- FY2022: GBP 4.31

- FY2023: GBP 4.33

- FY2024: GBP 3.78

- FY2025: GBP 3.92

- FY2026: GBP 3.36

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.43×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: -0.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.96×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.0%

- FY2018: 1.0%

- FY2019: 0.3%

- FY2020: 1.8%

- FY2021: 1.8%

- FY2022: 9.3%

- FY2023: 1.9%

- FY2024: 2.3%

- FY2025: 2.8%

- FY2026: 0.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 36% since May 2024 · "Berkeley Shares Hit Nine-Year Low On Land Purchase Freeze, Gloomy Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales -4.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.804Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 9.9% a year for ten years

- 2026-04-01: Berkeley Shares Hit Nine-Year Low On Land Purchase Freeze, Gloomy Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e75b41f9-b081-3fb2-afa8-ee4ebb219d5d/berkeley-shares-hit-nine-year.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: GBP 2.7B 

- FY2018: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2019: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2021: GBP 2.2B 

- FY2022: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2023: GBP 2.6B 

- FY2024: GBP 2.5B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.5B 

- FY2026: GBP 2.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 25.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 34.5% 

- FY2018: 34.6% 

- FY2019: 31.3% 

- FY2020: 33.2% 

- FY2021: 28.8% 

- FY2022: 28.3% 

- FY2023: 27.3% 

- FY2024: 26.2% 

- FY2025: 26.6% 

- FY2026: 25.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in residential construction; annual sales are GBP 2.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2026: revenue 2383300000; grossProfit 597200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BKG.LSE: The Berkeley Group Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, builds homes and neighbourhoods in the United Kingdom. The company engages in the residential-led mixed-use development and ancillary activities; commercial and land selling activities. In addition, it also provides affordable housing in partnership with the public sector. It operates under the Berkeley, St Edward, St George, St James, St Joseph, and St William brands. The Berkeley Group Holdings plc was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cobham, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 25.1% to 26.6% during 2024–26; it earns 17.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 26.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 25.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3273762058285217],[2018,0.3525858079226025],[2019,0.31550732648169555],[2020,0.19322355739010183],[2021,0.1995031459018938],[2022,0.15306646279706562],[2023,0.13052601863395266],[2024,0.11348511841204069],[2025,0.11251460215684955],[2026,0.096533492048087]]; median 0.17314501009358374. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 28% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.28848424302969755],[2022,0.2831345826235094],[2023,0.2732334718845581]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back GBP 233 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2800000; owner earnings 645100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2018: growth capex 1259137.2133227913; upkeep 4840862.786677209; owner earnings 759959137.2133228. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.001656848574700863.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2019: growth capex 1268019.9724671505; upkeep 18231980.02753285; owner earnings 611568019.9724672. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0020733915624368926.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 9700000; owner earnings 404600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2400000; owner earnings 425560000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1300000; owner earnings 485520000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2000000; owner earnings 468280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1400000; owner earnings 400120000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1000000; owner earnings 383940000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 320800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,254600000],[2018,146700000],[2019,53000000],[2020,149800000],[2021,145500000],[2022,451500000],[2023,98500000],[2024,98100000],[2025,251800000],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 233000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BKG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.579 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 9.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.15141558766251612. Price 3328; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 2.9414259225680413 → FY2026 3.3873607518082465. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 2,554.41 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 2,682.19 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 3,040.61 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 3,031.94 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 3,187.87 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 3,472.66 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 3,527.88 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 3,525.72 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 3,494.32 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 3,785.60 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 4,050.89 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 4,024.91 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 4,050.89 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 4,132.11 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 4,544.67 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 4,294.53 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 4,173.25 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 4,102.87 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 4,409.31 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 4,597.73 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 4,098.54 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 4,042.23 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 3,944.78 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 3,983.76 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 3,791.01 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 3,493.23 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 3,767.19 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 4,063.89 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 4,277.21 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 3,994.59 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 4,067.14 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 3,785.60 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 4,040.07 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 4,199.24 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 4,241.47 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 4,525.18 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 4,765.57 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 4,965.89 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 5,261.51 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 5,674.07 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 5,147.81 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 3,914.46 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 4,529.51 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 4,434.22 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 4,510.02 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 4,822.96 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 4,936.65 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 4,578.24 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 4,393.07 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 5,007.04 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 5,134.81 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 4,536.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 4,388.74 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 4,806.71 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 5,010.29 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 5,066.59 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 4,975.64 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 5,246.35 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 5,226.85 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 4,362.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 4,355.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 4,284.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 4,775.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 4,198.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 3,896.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 3,740.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 4,080.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 4,200.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 3,724.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 4,238.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 3,655.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 3,297.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 3,471.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 3,811.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 3,773.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 4,145.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 4,196.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 4,197.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 4,447.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 3,926.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 3,923.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 4,346.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 4,061.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 4,107.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 4,036.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 4,636.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 4,688.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 4,801.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 4,643.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 4,758.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 4,714.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 5,240.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 4,588.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 5,080.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 4,984.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 4,720.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 4,426.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 4,148.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 3,900.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 3,882.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 3,600.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 3,584.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 4,170.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 4,220.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 3,860.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 3,650.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 3,600.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 3,836.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 4,028.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 3,756.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 3,904.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 4,120.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 4,324.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 3,436.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 3,206.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 3,444.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 3,498.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 3,500.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 3,570.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 3,348.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 3,328.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 6,016.13 per share, central GBX 8,418.81 per share, high GBX 9,817.90 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 7,328.99 per share, central GBX 10,350.21 per share, high GBX 12,035.25 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 8,326.38 per share, central GBX 11,686.29 per share, high GBX 13,560.24 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 5,240.32 per share, central GBX 5,784.31 per share, high GBX 6,508.97 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 5,963.16 per share, central GBX 6,624.04 per share, high GBX 7,504.40 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 5,525.99 per share, central GBX 6,179.33 per share, high GBX 7,049.07 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 6,851.65 per share, central GBX 8,388.74 per share, high GBX 9,636.09 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 6,186.68 per share, central GBX 7,086.24 per share, high GBX 8,066.93 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 6,115.03 per share, central GBX 6,821.49 per share, high GBX 7,761.93 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 5,496.32 per share, central GBX 6,112.11 per share, high GBX 6,931.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:02.672Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations