# Danone (BN.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BN.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:00.408Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 61.22 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 44.96 per share, central EUR 49.49 per share, high EUR 55.53 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 49.49 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:00.408Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.3% at the stated quote. About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.13×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 48.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 49.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 24.1%

- FY2017: 25.6%

- FY2018: 19.5%

- FY2019: 19.9%

- FY2020: 18.6%

- FY2021: 17.9%

- FY2022: 14.7%

- FY2023: 15.7%

- FY2024: 30.2%

- FY2025: 25.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.21×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 9.2B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 7.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 0.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 1.84×

- FY2023: 1.67×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.1% vs 25.4%

- Per-share earnings: 2.79 to 2.83 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: EUR 12B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 6.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 0.2%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 2.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 2.83

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 12B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 18B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 2.79

- FY2017: EUR 3.87

- FY2018: EUR 3.63

- FY2019: EUR 2.97

- FY2020: EUR 3.01

- FY2021: EUR 3.00

- FY2022: EUR 1.50

- FY2023: EUR 1.37

- FY2024: EUR 3.13

- FY2025: EUR 2.83

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.07×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.37×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.1%

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: -1.7%

- FY2019: -3.3%

- FY2020: -2.4%

- FY2021: -3.4%

- FY2022: -4.4%

- FY2023: -5.8%

- FY2024: -4.0%

- FY2025: -4.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 20% since Nov 2025 · "Danone Stock Slumps on Infant Formula Contamination Concerns" (finance.yahoo.com, Jan 2026) · sales -0.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.743Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: Danone shares shine as Q2 sales beat forecasts on China demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/danone-shares-shine-q2-sales-145831818.html))

- 2025-10-28: Danone reports Q3 sales beat with China 'firing on all cylinders' ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/danone-reports-q3-sales-beat-143955209.html))

- 2026-01-21: Danone Stock Slumps on Infant Formula Contamination Concerns ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/02b53239-c3cb-3de3-8cba-9935979d184d/danone-stock-slumps-on-infant.html))

- 2026-02-20: Danone Reports 4.7% Sales Growth, Flags Formula Recall Impact ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/danone-reports-4-7-sales-203944485.html))

- 2026-04-22: Danone Reports 2.7% Sales Growth As Protein Demand Offsets Recall Impact ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/danone-reports-2-7-sales-172223731.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -0.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/969500KMUQ2B6CBAF162/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/dan-2024-12-31-fr/reports/dan-2024-12-31-fr.xhtml; observed 2025-09-24.

- FY2016: EUR 22B 

- FY2017: EUR 25B 

- FY2018: EUR 25B 

- FY2019: EUR 25B 

- FY2020: EUR 24B 

- FY2021: EUR 24B 

- FY2022: EUR 28B 

- FY2023: EUR 28B 

- FY2024: EUR 27B 

- FY2025: EUR 27B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 50.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/969500KMUQ2B6CBAF162/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/dan-2024-12-31-fr/reports/dan-2024-12-31-fr.xhtml; observed 2025-09-24.

- FY2016: 51.0% 

- FY2017: 49.1% 

- FY2018: 48.4% 

- FY2019: 49.1% 

- FY2020: 48.1% 

- FY2021: 47.4% 

- FY2022: 46.1% 

- FY2023: 47.4% 

- FY2024: 49.7% 

- FY2025: 50.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are EUR 27.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2025: revenue 27283000000; grossProfit 13810000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BN.PA: Danone S.A. operates in the food and beverage industry in Europe, Ukraine, North America, China, North Asia, the Oceania, Latin America, rest of Asia, Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The company operates through Essential Dairy & Plant-Based, Specialized Nutrition, and Waters segments. It produces and distributes yogurts, dairy products, coffee creations and drinks, beverages, plant-based products, ice creams, frozen desserts, and cheese products. The company also provides specialized nutrition, including formulas and complementary feeding for babies and young children; and special medical purposes food for children and adults. In addition, it offers tube feeding products and oral nutritional supplements. Further, the company provides mineral waters from natural sources, waters infused with natural fruit extracts, fruit juices, and vitamins. The company offers its products under the Actimel, Activia, Alpro, Aptamil, Danette, Danio, Danonino, evian, Nutricia, Nutrilon, Volvic, Danone, Oikos, YoPRO, International Delight, SToK, Silk, So Delicious, Cow & Gate, Bebelac, SGM, Dumex, HiQ, Nursie, Phosphatine, Mizone, Blédina, Nutrison, Fortimel, Neocate, Nutridrink, AQUA, Bonafont, Salus, Hayat, Sirma, Font Vella, Lanjarón, and Zywiec Zdroj brands.It distributes its products through retail chains and traditional market outlets; convenience stores; hotels, restaurants, and coffee outlets; hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies; and e-commerce channels. The company was formerly known as Groupe Danone and changed its name to Danone S.A. in April 2009. Danone S.A. was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47.4% to 50.6% during 2023–25; it earns 19.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 47.4%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/969500KMUQ2B6CBAF162/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/dan-2024-12-31-fr/reports/dan-2024-12-31-fr.xhtml (filed 2025-09-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 49.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 50.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.2408934879036787],[2017,0.25565336203541905],[2018,0.19450649203664647],[2019,0.19869022437108105],[2020,0.18576956115271495],[2021,0.17854834928619392],[2022,0.14713742473856553],[2023,0.1573562537048014],[2024,0.30173291362271865],[2025,0.2540847690689962]]; median 0.19659835820386376. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 46% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/969500KMUQ2B6CBAF162/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/dan-2024-12-31-fr/reports/dan-2024-12-31-fr.xhtml (filed 2025-09-24); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.474486223796384],[2022,0.4605401106250678],[2023,0.4737318512618125]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 486 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 925000000; owner earnings 1550000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2017: growth capex 125000000; upkeep 844000000; owner earnings 2449000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05104124132298898.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 941000000; owner earnings 2305000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 951000000; owner earnings 2002400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 962000000; owner earnings 1889800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1043000000; owner earnings 1949600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 873000000; owner earnings 1762400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 847000000; owner earnings 1469200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/969500KMUQ2B6CBAF162/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/dan-2024-12-31-fr/reports/dan-2024-12-31-fr.xhtml (filed 2025-09-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 923000000; owner earnings 2092400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1055000000; owner earnings 1936600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,985000000],[2017,279000000],[2018,431000000],[2019,1256000000],[2020,1363000000],[2021,1261000000],[2022,1238000000],[2023,1279000000],[2024,1348000000],[2025,1379000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 486000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BN.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.695 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 3.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04876920369924076. Price 61.22; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.084925420005949 → FY2025 3.0018732644015436. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 63.08 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 59.36 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 60.20 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 57.99 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 62.56 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 63.76 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 64.18 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 66.08 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 65.81 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 63.09 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 66.15 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 66.37 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 70.14 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 70.92 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 69.95 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 69.46 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 65.75 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 65.73 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 67.09 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 65.39 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 62.87 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 67.21 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 67.82 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 66.70 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 62.58 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 66.06 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 61.51 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 63.50 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 66.33 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 68.69 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 72.08 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 71.40 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 74.50 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 78.40 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 81.46 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 80.82 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 74.36 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 74.72 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 73.90 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 72.40 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 63.72 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 58.64 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 63.26 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 61.56 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 61.56 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 56.54 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 55.10 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 55.22 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 47.40 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 53.86 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 53.76 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 54.96 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 56.46 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 58.50 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 58.63 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 58.30 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 59.37 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 62.06 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 61.87 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 59.05 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 56.35 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 51.99 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 54.59 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 55.25 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 54.31 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 50.03 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 57.64 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 54.73 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 53.26 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 53.81 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 52.51 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 48.57 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 50.34 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 50.08 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 49.23 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 50.31 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 53.24 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 57.31 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 59.99 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 55.34 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 56.14 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 55.53 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 53.83 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 52.26 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 56.15 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 58.97 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 58.68 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 61.74 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 59.02 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 59.89 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 58.66 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 59.12 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 57.08 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 60.16 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 62.80 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 65.34 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 65.70 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 64.66 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 65.12 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 67.48 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 68.86 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 70.84 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 75.96 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 75.24 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 69.36 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 71.88 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 71.18 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 74.16 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 76.68 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 77.00 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 76.78 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 65.84 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 72.64 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 69.04 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 66.74 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 60.94 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 71.74 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 67.52 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 64.28 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 58.70 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 58.74 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 43.97 per share, central EUR 47.58 per share, high EUR 51.84 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 30.23 per share, central EUR 33.61 per share, high EUR 38.11 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 37.17 per share, central EUR 42.29 per share, high EUR 48.04 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 41.18 per share, central EUR 48.21 per share, high EUR 55.19 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 37.61 per share, central EUR 41.99 per share, high EUR 47.82 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 41.61 per share, central EUR 46.19 per share, high EUR 52.29 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 44.28 per share, central EUR 49.49 per share, high EUR 56.43 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 45.73 per share, central EUR 50.87 per share, high EUR 57.70 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 44.09 per share, central EUR 48.97 per share, high EUR 55.47 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 42.15 per share, central EUR 46.67 per share, high EUR 52.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:46.657Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/969500KMUQ2B6CBAF162/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/dan-2024-12-31-fr/reports/dan-2024-12-31-fr.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-09-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations