# BNP Paribas (BNP.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BNP.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:39.553Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 88.94 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 66.96 per share, central EUR 79.62 per share, high EUR 98.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 79.62 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:39.553Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.4% at the stated quote. About 9.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.14×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 7.5B

- FY2017: EUR 7.5B

- FY2018: EUR 7.2B

- FY2019: EUR 7.7B

- FY2020: EUR 6.6B

- FY2021: EUR 9.1B

- FY2022: EUR 9.8B

- FY2023: EUR 11B

- FY2024: EUR 12B

- FY2025: EUR 12B

### moat: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 8.6%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 8.0%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.6%

- FY2017: 8.5%

- FY2018: 8.0%

- FY2019: 8.1%

- FY2020: 7.1%

- FY2021: 8.7%

- FY2022: 9.2%

- FY2023: 9.6%

- FY2024: 9.9%

- FY2025: 10.7%

### economics: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 7.5%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: EUR 66.53

- Ending book value per share: EUR 95.78

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.4%

- FY2017: 5.9%

- FY2018: 4.7%

- FY2019: 11.8%

- FY2020: -1.5%

- FY2021: 16.9%

- FY2022: 7.5%

- FY2023: 14.8%

- FY2024: 15.3%

- FY2025: -5.8%

### management: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.5%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.0%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 6.31×

- Book value created per share: EUR 29.26

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: EUR 4.64

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 100

- FY2017: 100

- FY2018: 100

- FY2019: 100

- FY2020: 100

- FY2021: 99

- FY2022: 99

- FY2023: 96

- FY2024: 91

- FY2025: 95

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 5.3% a year forever · "BNP Paribas Profit Rises on Retail Recovery, Investment Banking Performance" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · net income +4.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.072Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 5.3% a year forever

- 2025-04-14: BNP Paribas Downgrades Projections for AXA IM Deal After Regulatory Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/5e945b2a-b296-3437-abe7-49720d83681f/bnp-paribas-downgrades.html))

- 2025-10-21: BNP Paribas Faces Costs on Sudan Human Rights Abuse Link ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bnp-paribas-faces-costs-sudan-083458904.html))

- 2026-02-01: BNP Paribas Results And Hedge Fund Hire Shape Fee Income Story ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bnp-paribas-results-hedge-fund-220552996.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +4.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/R0MUWSFPU8MPRO8K5P83/2025-12-31/ESEF/FR/1/bnp-2025-12-31-1/reports/bnp-2025-12-31-1-fr.html; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: EUR 7.5B 

- FY2017: EUR 7.5B 

- FY2018: EUR 7.2B 

- FY2019: EUR 7.7B 

- FY2020: EUR 6.6B 

- FY2021: EUR 9.1B 

- FY2022: EUR 9.8B 

- FY2023: EUR 11B 

- FY2024: EUR 12B 

- FY2025: EUR 12B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in regional banking; annual sales are EUR 144.4 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/R0MUWSFPU8MPRO8K5P83/2025-12-31/ESEF/FR/1/bnp-2025-12-31-1/reports/bnp-2025-12-31-1-fr.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: revenue 144384000000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 8.6% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.08565531475748193],[2017,0.08460459112083965],[2018,0.08026054687937935],[2019,0.08085901611960244],[2020,0.0705539110249803],[2021,0.08705101697360196],[2022,0.0921588261166584],[2023,0.09622888006242822],[2024,0.0988874317864546],[2025,0.10742813958188704]]; median 0.08635316586554195. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 13.3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,1834000000],[2017,3457000000],[2018,4039000000],[2019,3987000000],[2020,426000000],[2021,4530000000],[2022,4901000000],[2023,5398000000],[2024,5941000000],[2025,2891000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/R0MUWSFPU8MPRO8K5P83/2025-12-31/ESEF/FR/1/bnp-2025-12-31-1/reports/bnp-2025-12-31-1-fr.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 13342000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 11.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BNP.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 11.286999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 5.3% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Price 88.94; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 4.2115911453450385; discount 0.1; growth 0.05264682768894718. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 52.84 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 54.78 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 60.55 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 59.18 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 55.13 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 62.43 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 64.78 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 62.82 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 63.06 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 65.57 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 63.91 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 68.25 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 67.04 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 63.58 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 62.25 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 66.60 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 65.37 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 60.17 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 63.98 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 53.06 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 53.19 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 55.67 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 50.58 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 52.71 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 46.13 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 44.38 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 39.48 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 40.97 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 45.06 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 42.61 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 47.45 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 40.88 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 41.77 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 42.18 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 41.04 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 44.67 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 46.81 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 50.97 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 52.83 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 48.05 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 43.79 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 27.51 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 28.68 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 32.26 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 35.37 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 34.12 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 36.57 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 30.98 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 29.86 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 42.97 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 43.11 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 39.78 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 49.28 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 51.88 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 53.39 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 55.85 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 52.87 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 51.45 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 53.73 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 55.44 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 57.90 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 55.08 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 60.77 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 63.00 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 52.51 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 51.93 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 49.71 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 53.11 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 45.37 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 46.00 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 46.49 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 43.61 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 47.50 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 53.43 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 53.25 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 62.90 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 66.15 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 55.21 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 58.59 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 54.01 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 57.72 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 60.02 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 59.71 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 60.43 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 54.29 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 57.77 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 62.59 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 62.55 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 55.38 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 65.86 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 67.61 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 67.70 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 59.53 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 63.46 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 62.58 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 61.55 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 62.75 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 56.64 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 59.22 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 65.72 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 72.86 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 76.91 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 74.29 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 77.14 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 76.32 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 80.06 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 76.83 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 77.33 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 67.06 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 73.69 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 80.79 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 91.20 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 95.50 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 80.99 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 89.23 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 92.95 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 102.14 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 109.66 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 102.78 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 95.00 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 90.23 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 40.90 per share, central EUR 51.12 per share, high EUR 68.16 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 40.93 per share, central EUR 50.62 per share, high EUR 66.30 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 41.00 per share, central EUR 50.70 per share, high EUR 66.41 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 47.72 per share, central EUR 56.74 per share, high EUR 69.95 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 45.52 per share, central EUR 54.01 per share, high EUR 66.37 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 51.00 per share, central EUR 60.50 per share, high EUR 74.35 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 53.14 per share, central EUR 62.80 per share, high EUR 76.75 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 60.12 per share, central EUR 71.09 per share, high EUR 86.97 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 67.95 per share, central EUR 80.54 per share, high EUR 98.85 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 64.99 per share, central EUR 77.28 per share, high EUR 95.29 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:24.786Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/R0MUWSFPU8MPRO8K5P83/2025-12-31/ESEF/FR/1/bnp-2025-12-31-1/reports/bnp-2025-12-31-1-fr.html); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations