# Bellway (BWY.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BWY.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:39:06.552Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 2,116.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 2,348.31 per share, central GBX 2,644.31 per share, high GBX 3,038.36 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 2,644.31 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:39:06.552Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.0% at the stated quote. About 12.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.22×

- FY2018: 0.22×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- FY2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 20.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 18.2%

- FY2018: 18.8%

- FY2019: 18.1%

- FY2020: 8.5%

- FY2021: 12.6%

- FY2022: 14.6%

- FY2023: 11.4%

- FY2024: 4.3%

- FY2025: 5.6%

- FY2026: 7.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.13×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 1.2B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 1.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -15.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 47.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 152.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 0.99×

- FY2026: 1.73×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 18.2% vs 5.6%

- Per-share earnings: 3.69 to 1.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -12.1%

- Per-share value change: GBP -2.37

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 3.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 1.32

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.26

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 94M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 3.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 18.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 3.69

- FY2018: GBP 4.22

- FY2019: GBP 4.36

- FY2020: GBP 1.57

- FY2021: GBP 3.17

- FY2022: GBP 1.97

- FY2023: GBP 2.98

- FY2024: GBP 1.09

- FY2025: GBP 1.32

- FY2026: GBP 1.67

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.76×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 9.6%

- FY2018: 7.5%

- FY2019: 6.3%

- FY2020: 6.1%

- FY2021: -0.9%

- FY2022: 4.0%

- FY2023: 2.5%

- FY2024: 3.9%

- FY2025: 0.2%

- FY2026: -2.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 37% since Dec 2021 · "Bellway profit misses expectations as homebuilder warns on FY27 margins" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales +13.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.436Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.2% a year for ten years

- 2026-03-24: Bellway shares hit as full-year earnings outlook disappoints ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bellway-shares-hit-full-earnings-123633314.html))

- 2026-06-09: Homebuyer interest dipped after mortgage rates rise, builder Bellway says ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyer-interest-dipped-mortgage-rates-081741580.html))

- 2026-10-13: Bellway profit misses expectations as homebuilder warns on FY27 margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/bellway-profit-misses-expectations-homebuilder-065725693.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +13.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31/reports/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2025-10-28.

- FY2017: GBP 2.6B 

- FY2018: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2019: GBP 3.2B 

- FY2020: GBP 2.2B 

- FY2021: GBP 3.1B 

- FY2022: GBP 3.5B 

- FY2023: GBP 3.4B 

- FY2024: GBP 2.4B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2026: GBP 3.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 15.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31/reports/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2025-10-28.

- FY2017: 25.9% 

- FY2018: 25.6% 

- FY2019: 24.6% 

- FY2020: 19.0% 

- FY2021: 20.9% 

- FY2022: 22.3% 

- FY2023: 20.2% 

- FY2024: 15.4% 

- FY2025: 16.4% 

- FY2026: 15.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in residential construction; annual sales are GBP 3.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2026: revenue 3162200000; grossProfit 497800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BWY.LSE: Bellway p.l.c., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United Kingdom. It builds and sells homes ranging from one-bedroom apartments to six-bedroom family homes, as well as provides homes to housing associations for social housing. It offers homes under Bellway, Ashberry, and Bellway London brands. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.4% to 16.4% during 2024–26; it earns 12% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 15.4%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31/reports/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2025-10-28); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 16.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 15.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.1819973449377866],[2018,0.18750168376210147],[2019,0.1808815412400377],[2020,0.08457291688659373],[2021,0.12580993862456138],[2022,0.14621678072197306],[2023,0.11410678583894786],[2024,0.04349163208463509],[2025,0.05587167015477626],[2026,0.07195075383853924]]; median 0.11995836223175463. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2109000; owner earnings 454707000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2018: growth capex 2066000; upkeep 1855000; owner earnings 519905000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00397380290630019.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 5100000; owner earnings 536216600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 8300000; owner earnings 187480000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 3300000; owner earnings 390460000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 500000; owner earnings 244760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2700000; owner earnings 365300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1400000; owner earnings 131380000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31/reports/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2025-10-28); FY2025: growth capex 4786657.7989876075; upkeep 7113342.2010123925; owner earnings 155886657.7989876. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.030706013372612664.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 6300000; owner earnings 334000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); Dividend observations: [[2017,136556000],[2018,162647000],[2019,178865000],[2020,123100000],[2021,104700000],[2022,157200000],[2023,171700000],[2024,131700000],[2025,70000000],[2026,83900000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BWY.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 5.196 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-28); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.043223028915609. Price 2116; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 3.2796228900098576 → FY2026 2.8812477355463155. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 2,366.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 2,442.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 2,476.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 2,484.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 2,606.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 2,703.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 2,846.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 2,826.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 2,975.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 3,190.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 3,203.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 3,297.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 3,650.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 3,462.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 3,563.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 3,321.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 3,116.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 3,049.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 3,316.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 3,283.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 3,004.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 2,917.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 2,918.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 3,014.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 2,871.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 2,542.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 2,515.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 2,837.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 3,025.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 3,045.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 3,112.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 2,741.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 2,785.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 2,970.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 2,901.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 3,346.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 3,160.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 3,339.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 3,807.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 3,985.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 3,723.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 2,156.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 2,663.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 2,570.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 2,546.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 2,546.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 2,389.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 2,351.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 2,335.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 2,831.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 2,955.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,755.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,808.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 3,403.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 3,612.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 3,578.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 3,240.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 3,282.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 3,519.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 3,279.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 3,313.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 3,118.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 3,336.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 2,837.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 2,884.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 2,432.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 2,438.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,336.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 2,146.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 2,446.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 2,043.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 1,703.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 1,855.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 2,006.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 1,907.50 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 2,118.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 2,217.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 2,207.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 2,412.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 2,260.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 1,988.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 2,216.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 2,136.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 2,284.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 2,088.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 2,318.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 2,568.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 2,760.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 2,698.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 2,664.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 2,530.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 2,678.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 2,536.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 2,866.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 3,034.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 3,114.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 2,836.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 2,508.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 2,492.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 2,622.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 2,340.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 2,366.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 2,682.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 2,712.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 2,884.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 2,490.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 2,330.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 2,454.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 2,624.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 2,834.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 2,744.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 2,716.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 2,786.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 1,844.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 1,907.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 1,919.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 1,938.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 1,988.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 2,160.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 2,212.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 2,116.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 4,251.51 per share, central GBX 5,680.39 per share, high GBX 6,651.74 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 5,763.11 per share, central GBX 8,218.90 per share, high GBX 9,648.92 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 6,333.05 per share, central GBX 8,999.37 per share, high GBX 10,551.97 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 3,481.47 per share, central GBX 3,960.72 per share, high GBX 4,598.70 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 6,063.34 per share, central GBX 8,523.47 per share, high GBX 9,956.01 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 5,129.46 per share, central GBX 7,221.58 per share, high GBX 8,439.83 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 4,215.87 per share, central GBX 5,809.91 per share, high GBX 6,777.03 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 1,894.37 per share, central GBX 2,147.26 per share, high GBX 2,483.92 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 1,858.72 per share, central GBX 2,101.59 per share, high GBX 2,424.91 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 2,257.03 per share, central GBX 2,541.52 per share, high GBX 2,920.25 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:45:03.181Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98/2025-07-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31/reports/213800CY4L3HST4FGZ98-2025-07-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-07-31, filed 2025-10-28.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations