# Carrefour (CA.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CA.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:24.262Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 16.65 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 16.17 per share, central EUR 17.69 per share, high EUR 19.73 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 17.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:24.262Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.7% at the stated quote. About 10.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.03×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.0%

- FY2017: 12.2%

- FY2018: 11.8%

- FY2019: 8.8%

- FY2020: 10.1%

- FY2021: 11.8%

- FY2022: 11.6%

- FY2023: 7.2%

- FY2024: 16.3%

- FY2025: 12.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.57×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 2.9B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 5.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.57×

- FY2022: 0.65×

- FY2023: 0.68×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.29×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.2% vs 12.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.00 to 1.07 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.7%

- Market cap gain: EUR -7.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 3.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 0.9%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.08

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 1.00

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 1.07

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.64

- Average buyback yield: 3.4%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 10B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 7.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 1.00

- FY2017: EUR -0.33

- FY2018: EUR -0.24

- FY2019: EUR 1.43

- FY2020: EUR 0.79

- FY2021: EUR 1.36

- FY2022: EUR 1.81

- FY2023: EUR 2.34

- FY2024: EUR 1.07

- FY2025: EUR 0.48

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 11.14×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.92×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.2%

- FY2017: -6.5%

- FY2018: -4.8%

- FY2019: -4.1%

- FY2020: -5.8%

- FY2021: -5.4%

- FY2022: -5.1%

- FY2023: -5.3%

- FY2024: -6.1%

- FY2025: -5.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.2% a year for ten years · sales +0.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.742Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: Carrefour keeps 2025 goals, French sales improve in Q1 ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/carrefour-keeps-2025-goals-french-155727766.html))

- 2025-07-25: Carrefour Shares Rise on Sale of Loss-Making Italian Business ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/65d49388-3fd7-3b2a-b351-dedd054b5943/carrefour-shares-rise-on-sale.html))

- 2026-04-26: Carrefour (ENXTPA:CA) Valuation In Focus After Q1 Sales Growth And Confident Full Year Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carrefour-enxtpa-ca-valuation-focus-130734423.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300B8P6MUJ1YWTS08/2026-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/549300B8P6MUJ1YWTS08-2025-12-31-1-fr/reports/549300b8p6muj1ywts08-2025-12-31-1-fr.html; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: EUR 78B 

- FY2017: EUR 80B 

- FY2018: EUR 74B 

- FY2019: EUR 74B 

- FY2020: EUR 72B 

- FY2021: EUR 72B 

- FY2022: EUR 83B 

- FY2023: EUR 85B 

- FY2024: EUR 83B 

- FY2025: EUR 84B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 19.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300B8P6MUJ1YWTS08/2026-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/549300B8P6MUJ1YWTS08-2025-12-31-1-fr/reports/549300b8p6muj1ywts08-2025-12-31-1-fr.html; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: 21.3% 

- FY2017: 22.0% 

- FY2018: 21.5% 

- FY2019: 18.9% 

- FY2020: 18.6% 

- FY2021: 18.2% 

- FY2022: 17.3% 

- FY2023: 18.7% 

- FY2024: 19.3% 

- FY2025: 19.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in grocery stores; annual sales are EUR 84 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: revenue 84024000000; grossProfit 16024000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.7% to 19.3% during 2023–25; it earns 11.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 18.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.12994083865182562],[2017,0.12150604003174323],[2018,0.11787469287469288],[2019,0.08813630490956072],[2020,0.10149098225192212],[2021,0.1179419995807164],[2022,0.11577107439385731],[2023,0.07239231419064579],[2024,0.16333778977373056],[2025,0.12578342415045946]]; median 0.11790834622770463. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 17% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300B8P6MUJ1YWTS08/2026-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/549300B8P6MUJ1YWTS08-2025-12-31-1-fr/reports/549300b8p6muj1ywts08-2025-12-31-1-fr.html (filed 2026-04-07); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.18159141583054628],[2022,0.17252584577982646],[2023,0.1867153456601107]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 60 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1725000000; owner earnings 807600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1614000000; owner earnings 374400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1653000000; owner earnings 611600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1882000000; owner earnings 872407672.6342711. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1850000000; owner earnings 1124800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1772000000; owner earnings 225319746.83544302. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1523000000; owner earnings 93200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Dividend observations: [[2016,121000000],[2017,151000000],[2018,152000000],[2019,106000000],[2020,57000000],[2021,383000000],[2022,380000000],[2023,405000000],[2024,600000000],[2025,812000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: cash repurchases 60000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 16.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CA.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 16.482 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 15.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.015400778118816405. Price 16.65; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.7799117434783455 → FY2025 0.1392693142779439. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 23.90 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 22.12 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 22.89 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 22.66 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 22.54 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 22.10 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 21.63 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 23.25 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 22.15 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 20.31 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 16.94 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 17.10 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 17.28 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 17.66 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 18.04 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 19.28 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 18.95 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 16.85 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 17.04 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 15.43 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 13.87 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 15.36 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 15.37 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 16.50 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 17.15 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 15.90 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 14.91 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 17.29 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 18.00 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 16.65 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 17.37 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 16.84 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 16.98 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 17.41 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 15.50 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 16.06 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 15.26 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 14.98 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 14.95 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 15.31 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 15.65 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 14.42 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 13.50 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 13.66 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 13.76 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 13.50 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 13.46 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 13.67 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 13.36 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 13.73 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 14.03 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 13.99 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 14.45 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 15.45 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 16.11 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 16.72 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 16.59 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 15.66 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 16.85 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 15.55 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 15.66 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 14.62 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 16.11 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 16.92 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 17.90 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 19.65 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 20.16 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 19.03 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 16.89 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 16.64 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 16.64 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 14.22 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 16.29 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 16.43 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 15.64 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 17.47 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 18.71 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 18.63 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 18.86 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 17.19 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 17.36 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 18.19 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 17.67 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 16.29 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 16.58 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 17.40 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 16.57 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 15.82 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 15.53 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 15.88 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 15.79 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 14.99 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 13.20 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 13.80 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 14.58 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 15.31 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 14.54 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 14.40 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 13.73 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 13.69 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 12.81 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 13.22 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 13.60 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 13.17 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 11.97 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 12.57 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 12.37 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 12.90 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 13.05 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 13.27 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 14.23 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 13.84 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 16.05 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 15.91 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 16.95 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 16.04 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 16.25 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 15.94 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 15.68 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 15.91 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 16.06 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 6.92 per share, central EUR 7.52 per share, high EUR 8.31 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 6.99 per share, central EUR 7.57 per share, high EUR 8.34 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 8.22 per share, central EUR 8.93 per share, high EUR 9.89 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 14.76 per share, central EUR 16.20 per share, high EUR 18.10 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 19.83 per share, central EUR 21.73 per share, high EUR 24.26 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 18.65 per share, central EUR 20.24 per share, high EUR 22.36 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 18.78 per share, central EUR 20.39 per share, high EUR 22.54 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:10.683Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300B8P6MUJ1YWTS08/2026-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/549300B8P6MUJ1YWTS08-2025-12-31-1-fr/reports/549300b8p6muj1ywts08-2025-12-31-1-fr.html); period 2026-12-31, filed 2026-04-07.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations