# Carlsberg A/S (CARL-B.CO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CARL-B.CO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:56.512Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: DKK. Reporting currency: DKK.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: DKK 933.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low DKK 785.44 per share, central DKK 885.53 per share, high DKK 1,018.76 per share. Buy at or below the central value DKK 885.53 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:56.512Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.6% at the stated quote. About 9.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; DK 10-year bond 3.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.13×

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.17×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 5.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 66.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 31.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 47.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 42.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 22.4%

- FY2017: 33.6%

- FY2018: 52.6%

- FY2019: 74.2%

- FY2020: 66.6%

- FY2021: 70.7%

- FY2022: 66.5%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 72.1%

- FY2025: 31.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: DKK -13B

- Net income, five-year total: DKK -11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -8.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -13.0%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: DKK 6.6B

- FY2022: DKK 8.0B

- FY2023: DKK -41B

- FY2024: DKK 8.6B

- FY2025: DKK 5.4B

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 33.6% vs 72.1%

- Per-share earnings: 13.55 to 44.77 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: DKK 18B

- Cumulative retained earnings: DKK -49B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.1%

- Per-share value change: DKK 31.22

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: DKK 13.55

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: DKK 44.77

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.18

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: DKK 43B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: DKK 14B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 33.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 72.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: DKK 29.40

- FY2017: DKK 13.55

- FY2018: DKK 34.54

- FY2019: DKK 43.67

- FY2020: DKK 41.38

- FY2021: DKK 47.62

- FY2022: DKK 57.88

- FY2023: DKK -299.53

- FY2024: DKK 69.02

- FY2025: DKK 44.77

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.25×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.19×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.99×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.8%

- FY2017: -8.6%

- FY2018: -5.7%

- FY2019: -4.6%

- FY2020: -4.1%

- FY2021: -5.1%

- FY2022: -4.1%

- FY2023: -46.9%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -4.6%

## Holders

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.6% a year for ten years · sales +18.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:03.066Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-14: Carlsberg misses first-half forecasts, warns of difficult year ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/carlsbergs-first-half-profit-misses-061147236.html))

- 2025-10-30: Carlsberg Beer Volumes Fall on Tough Consumer Sentiment ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8e938d69-9e6d-3009-b198-088521c99b1f/carlsberg-beer-volumes-fall.html))

- 2026-02-04: Carlsberg profits jump as Britvic integration ‘ahead of plan’ ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/carlsberg-profits-jump-britvic-integration-124406436.html))

- 2026-03-07: Carlsberg Refocuses On Europe Asia And Premium Beer After Russia Exit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carlsberg-refocuses-europe-asia-premium-100759416.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +18.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5299001O0WJQYB5GYZ19/2026-06-30/ESEF/DK/0/Carlsberg-2026-06-30-en/reports/Carlsberg-2026-06-30-en.xhtml; observed 2026-09-02.

- FY2016: DKK 63B 

- FY2017: DKK 62B 

- FY2018: DKK 63B 

- FY2019: DKK 66B 

- FY2020: DKK 59B 

- FY2021: DKK 67B 

- FY2022: DKK 70B 

- FY2023: DKK 74B 

- FY2024: DKK 75B 

- FY2025: DKK 89B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 42.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5299001O0WJQYB5GYZ19/2026-06-30/ESEF/DK/0/Carlsberg-2026-06-30-en/reports/Carlsberg-2026-06-30-en.xhtml; observed 2026-09-02.

- FY2016: 50.2% 

- FY2017: 50.9% 

- FY2018: 49.9% 

- FY2019: 49.5% 

- FY2020: 48.4% 

- FY2021: 47.0% 

- FY2022: 45.6% 

- FY2023: 44.6% 

- FY2024: 45.8% 

- FY2025: 42.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages brewers; annual sales are DKK 89.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: revenue 89095000000; grossProfit 37710000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 42.3% to 45.8% during 2023–25; it earns 66.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 44.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.22412038450665384],[2017,0.3362121212121212],[2018,0.526054307552597],[2019,0.7420947417789902],[2020,0.6655867349862473],[2021,0.7067263403133118],[2022,0.6645383691775473],[2023,1.0717541577442564],[2024,0.7206425949069436],[2025,0.3115492260738742]]; median 0.6650625520818974. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 3.1% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3840000000; owner earnings 5388000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4053000000; owner earnings 2593000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 4027000000; owner earnings 5346000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2019: growth capex 80000000; upkeep 4512000000; owner earnings 6251200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.012797542871768621.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4396000000; owner earnings 5674400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2021: growth capex 52000000; upkeep 4169000000; owner earnings 6568600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.007916450994123558.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 4018000000; owner earnings 8033400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2024: growth capex 535726343.6862459; upkeep 4494273656.313754; owner earnings 8567126343.686246. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06253279363401272.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: growth capex 164000000; upkeep 5428000000; owner earnings 5372400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0305263941627578.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,1373000000],[2017,1525000000],[2018,2439000000],[2019,2738000000],[2020,3093000000],[2021,3187000000],[2022,3389000000],[2023,3695000000],[2024,3601000000],[2025,3573000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 4000000 DKK.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CARL-B.CO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.776 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.009952030196696326. Price 933; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -13.481215801086497 → FY2025 40.386089937305485. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (DKK per share)

- 2016-10: DKK 611.00 per share

- 2016-11: DKK 597.00 per share

- 2016-12: DKK 609.50 per share

- 2017-01: DKK 622.00 per share

- 2017-02: DKK 616.50 per share

- 2017-03: DKK 644.00 per share

- 2017-04: DKK 681.50 per share

- 2017-05: DKK 721.00 per share

- 2017-06: DKK 695.50 per share

- 2017-07: DKK 698.50 per share

- 2017-08: DKK 717.00 per share

- 2017-09: DKK 689.00 per share

- 2017-10: DKK 729.50 per share

- 2017-11: DKK 740.50 per share

- 2017-12: DKK 745.00 per share

- 2018-01: DKK 769.80 per share

- 2018-02: DKK 750.20 per share

- 2018-03: DKK 720.80 per share

- 2018-04: DKK 691.40 per share

- 2018-05: DKK 708.00 per share

- 2018-06: DKK 751.60 per share

- 2018-07: DKK 768.20 per share

- 2018-08: DKK 784.00 per share

- 2018-09: DKK 770.40 per share

- 2018-10: DKK 726.60 per share

- 2018-11: DKK 730.00 per share

- 2018-12: DKK 692.60 per share

- 2019-01: DKK 745.40 per share

- 2019-02: DKK 794.60 per share

- 2019-03: DKK 831.20 per share

- 2019-04: DKK 859.80 per share

- 2019-05: DKK 880.60 per share

- 2019-06: DKK 870.20 per share

- 2019-07: DKK 921.60 per share

- 2019-08: DKK 1,001.50 per share

- 2019-09: DKK 1,012.50 per share

- 2019-10: DKK 942.40 per share

- 2019-11: DKK 975.60 per share

- 2019-12: DKK 993.80 per share

- 2020-01: DKK 986.40 per share

- 2020-02: DKK 887.60 per share

- 2020-03: DKK 769.80 per share

- 2020-04: DKK 858.60 per share

- 2020-05: DKK 866.60 per share

- 2020-06: DKK 876.60 per share

- 2020-07: DKK 928.00 per share

- 2020-08: DKK 876.60 per share

- 2020-09: DKK 856.00 per share

- 2020-10: DKK 809.00 per share

- 2020-11: DKK 928.40 per share

- 2020-12: DKK 975.20 per share

- 2021-01: DKK 900.20 per share

- 2021-02: DKK 970.00 per share

- 2021-03: DKK 974.60 per share

- 2021-04: DKK 1,085.50 per share

- 2021-05: DKK 1,116.00 per share

- 2021-06: DKK 1,169.00 per share

- 2021-07: DKK 1,159.50 per share

- 2021-08: DKK 1,099.50 per share

- 2021-09: DKK 1,049.50 per share

- 2021-10: DKK 1,061.50 per share

- 2021-11: DKK 1,020.00 per share

- 2021-12: DKK 1,129.50 per share

- 2022-01: DKK 1,068.00 per share

- 2022-02: DKK 972.20 per share

- 2022-03: DKK 830.00 per share

- 2022-04: DKK 908.40 per share

- 2022-05: DKK 882.20 per share

- 2022-06: DKK 904.00 per share

- 2022-07: DKK 940.00 per share

- 2022-08: DKK 965.80 per share

- 2022-09: DKK 893.80 per share

- 2022-10: DKK 888.00 per share

- 2022-11: DKK 893.40 per share

- 2022-12: DKK 923.20 per share

- 2023-01: DKK 967.60 per share

- 2023-02: DKK 995.80 per share

- 2023-03: DKK 1,063.00 per share

- 2023-04: DKK 1,117.50 per share

- 2023-05: DKK 1,049.50 per share

- 2023-06: DKK 1,090.50 per share

- 2023-07: DKK 1,016.50 per share

- 2023-08: DKK 996.00 per share

- 2023-09: DKK 891.40 per share

- 2023-10: DKK 840.00 per share

- 2023-11: DKK 848.00 per share

- 2023-12: DKK 846.80 per share

- 2024-01: DKK 889.20 per share

- 2024-02: DKK 961.00 per share

- 2024-03: DKK 943.60 per share

- 2024-04: DKK 943.20 per share

- 2024-05: DKK 929.00 per share

- 2024-06: DKK 835.60 per share

- 2024-07: DKK 833.40 per share

- 2024-08: DKK 792.00 per share

- 2024-09: DKK 797.60 per share

- 2024-10: DKK 755.00 per share

- 2024-11: DKK 726.80 per share

- 2024-12: DKK 690.00 per share

- 2025-01: DKK 754.60 per share

- 2025-02: DKK 901.40 per share

- 2025-03: DKK 876.80 per share

- 2025-04: DKK 895.80 per share

- 2025-05: DKK 939.20 per share

- 2025-06: DKK 897.40 per share

- 2025-07: DKK 818.40 per share

- 2025-08: DKK 780.40 per share

- 2025-09: DKK 738.80 per share

- 2025-10: DKK 761.60 per share

- 2025-11: DKK 799.60 per share

- 2025-12: DKK 835.20 per share

- 2026-01: DKK 853.00 per share

- 2026-02: DKK 983.20 per share

- 2026-03: DKK 803.20 per share

- 2026-04: DKK 862.20 per share

- 2026-05: DKK 861.40 per share

- 2026-06: DKK 856.80 per share

- 2026-07: DKK 956.20 per share

- 2026-08: DKK 883.40 per share

- 2026-09: DKK 851.80 per share

- 2026-10: DKK 933.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (DKK per share)

- FY2016: low DKK 351.15 per share, central DKK 397.53 per share, high DKK 459.28 per share

- FY2017: low DKK 214.37 per share, central DKK 241.92 per share, high DKK 278.58 per share

- FY2018: low DKK 228.62 per share, central DKK 256.25 per share, high DKK 293.03 per share

- FY2019: low DKK 435.51 per share, central DKK 491.98 per share, high DKK 567.16 per share

- FY2020: low DKK 425.40 per share, central DKK 477.50 per share, high DKK 546.86 per share

- FY2021: low DKK 529.32 per share, central DKK 595.57 per share, high DKK 683.78 per share

- FY2022: low DKK 574.37 per share, central DKK 646.97 per share, high DKK 743.62 per share

- FY2023: low DKK 676.41 per share, central DKK 755.35 per share, high DKK 860.43 per share

- FY2024: low DKK 688.40 per share, central DKK 772.77 per share, high DKK 885.09 per share

- FY2025: low DKK 780.30 per share, central DKK 879.80 per share, high DKK 1,012.26 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:42.407Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/5299001O0WJQYB5GYZ19/2026-06-30/ESEF/DK/0/Carlsberg-2026-06-30-en/reports/Carlsberg-2026-06-30-en.xhtml); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-09-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): 10,135 CABJF shares; USD 1,328,000 reported position value; 0.01% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.