# Codan (CDA.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CDA.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 60.69 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 9.83 per share, central AUD 11.17 per share, high AUD 12.94 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 11.17 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.2% at the stated quote. About 4.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.18×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.27×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.28×

- FY2021: 0.32×

- FY2022: 0.27×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- FY2026: 0.28×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 54.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 30.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 54.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 53.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 27.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 74.3%

- FY2018: 54.5%

- FY2019: 38.2%

- FY2020: 69.3%

- FY2021: 82.9%

- FY2022: 54.6%

- FY2023: 30.7%

- FY2024: 26.9%

- FY2025: 30.1%

- FY2026: 60.0%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.08×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 573M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 529M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 498.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 12.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.12×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 0.81×

- FY2025: 1.20×

- FY2026: 1.16×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 54.5% vs 30.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.23 to 0.57 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: AUD 7.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 414M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 11.9%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.34

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.23

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.57

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 765M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 813M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 54.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 30.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.24

- FY2018: AUD 0.23

- FY2019: AUD 0.25

- FY2020: AUD 0.35

- FY2021: AUD 0.50

- FY2022: AUD 0.56

- FY2023: AUD 0.37

- FY2024: AUD 0.45

- FY2025: AUD 0.57

- FY2026: AUD 0.96

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.63×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.42×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.84×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -13.8%

- FY2018: -2.6%

- FY2019: -6.0%

- FY2020: -11.4%

- FY2021: -8.1%

- FY2022: 8.3%

- FY2023: -1.7%

- FY2024: -3.3%

- FY2025: -4.8%

- FY2026: -8.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.8% a year for ten years · sales +29.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.516Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.8% a year for ten years

- 2026-09-29: Codan shares surge 19% to record high after raising H1 profit outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/codan-shares-surge-19-record-022133208.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +29.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 226M 

- FY2018: AUD 230M 

- FY2019: AUD 271M 

- FY2020: AUD 348M 

- FY2021: AUD 437M 

- FY2022: AUD 506M 

- FY2023: AUD 456M 

- FY2024: AUD 550M 

- FY2025: AUD 674M 

- FY2026: AUD 875M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 53.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 60.2% 

- FY2018: 57.3% 

- FY2019: 56.6% 

- FY2020: 49.0% 

- FY2021: 49.6% 

- FY2022: 50.0% 

- FY2023: 47.9% 

- FY2024: 55.4% 

- FY2025: 56.2% 

- FY2026: 53.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in scientific & technical instruments; annual sales are AUD 875 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2026: revenue 874965000; grossProfit 466151000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 53.3% to 56.2% during 2024–26; it earns 54.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 55.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 56.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 53.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.743245882130113],[2018,0.545118466445921],[2019,0.38175718284928745],[2020,0.6931433600463681],[2021,0.8294027636116093],[2022,0.5456113471850479],[2023,0.3071738100530962],[2024,0.2694956864171255],[2025,0.3014538225348283],[2026,0.5995072736983597]]; median 0.5453649068154844. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4064000; owner earnings 53516000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 3427000; owner earnings 54809000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 4132000; owner earnings 56778000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4225000; owner earnings 74110200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 4383000; owner earnings 98573000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 6588000; owner earnings 112699400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 19371000; owner earnings 67267800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2024: growth capex 11404535.553805508; upkeep 39379464.44619449; owner earnings 65909335.55380551. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17303369026524842.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 8617000; owner earnings 124063800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 8811000; owner earnings 202694400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,17724000],[2018,19593000],[2019,26873000],[2020,26998000],[2021,38809000],[2022,53361000],[2023,43480000],[2024,36263000],[2025,44483000],[2026,64563999]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 37.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CDA.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 37.588 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 22.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 23.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:27.598Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3192951111390875. Price 60.69; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.1315834327595023 → FY2026 1.1093570586503234. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 1.52 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 1.74 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 2.02 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 2.03 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 2.23 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 2.00 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 2.19 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 2.40 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 2.34 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 2.24 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 2.25 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 2.33 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 2.40 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 2.22 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 2.23 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 2.22 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 2.41 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 2.58 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 2.47 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 2.94 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 3.00 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 2.93 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 3.12 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 3.22 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 3.00 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 2.96 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 2.91 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 3.17 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 3.08 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 3.14 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 3.25 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 3.27 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 3.47 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 4.04 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 4.74 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 5.54 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 6.20 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 6.58 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 7.45 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 7.64 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 7.19 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 5.41 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 6.54 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 7.08 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 7.09 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 8.25 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 10.79 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 11.04 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 11.80 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 10.61 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 11.18 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 11.98 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 14.98 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 15.44 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 17.87 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 18.67 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 18.03 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 16.86 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 15.04 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 12.77 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 10.05 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 9.74 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 9.33 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 9.02 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 7.32 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 7.32 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 7.20 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 7.98 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 6.96 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 8.67 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 7.28 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 5.67 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 3.87 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 3.90 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 4.10 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 5.30 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 5.60 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 5.44 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 7.29 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 7.10 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 8.03 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 7.51 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 7.86 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 7.90 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 7.78 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 9.09 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 8.55 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 8.10 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 10.23 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 10.87 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 10.95 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 10.91 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 12.03 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 13.12 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 15.48 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 16.12 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 15.80 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 15.65 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 16.10 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 16.03 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 15.23 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 15.59 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 15.75 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 18.00 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 20.11 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 20.95 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 30.88 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 29.52 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 36.25 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 30.85 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 28.43 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 38.04 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 35.51 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 31.26 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 41.68 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 42.65 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 44.14 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 40.08 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 46.97 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 65.83 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 63.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 2.14 per share, central AUD 2.60 per share, high AUD 3.01 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 2.07 per share, central AUD 2.33 per share, high AUD 2.69 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 4.73 per share, central AUD 6.82 per share, high AUD 7.99 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 4.95 per share, central AUD 5.56 per share, high AUD 6.39 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 6.02 per share, central AUD 6.84 per share, high AUD 7.93 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 6.87 per share, central AUD 7.81 per share, high AUD 9.05 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 5.92 per share, central AUD 6.72 per share, high AUD 7.79 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 7.09 per share, central AUD 8.06 per share, high AUD 9.35 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 8.07 per share, central AUD 9.80 per share, high AUD 11.40 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 9.81 per share, central AUD 11.14 per share, high AUD 12.91 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:07.435Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations