# Contact Energy (CEN.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CEN.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: NZD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 7.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 2.32 per share, central AUD 2.56 per share, high AUD 2.89 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 2.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.1% at the stated quote. About 5.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.30×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.21×

- FY2026: 0.23×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 40.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 6.2%

- FY2020: 5.0%

- FY2021: 6.9%

- FY2022: 5.8%

- FY2023: 4.7%

- FY2024: 6.9%

- FY2025: 11.3%

- FY2026: 7.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.53×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: NZD 688M

- Net income, five-year total: NZD 1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 42.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.53×

- FY2023: -1.50×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.51×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2019 to 2026 (7 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.2% vs 7.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.24 to 0.39 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 6.6%

- Market cap gain: NZD 3.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: NZD -501M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2019

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 10.2%

- Per-share value change: NZD 0.15

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: NZD 0.24

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: NZD 0.39

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: NZD 0.48

- FY2020: NZD 0.17

- FY2021: NZD 0.24

- FY2022: NZD 0.23

- FY2023: NZD 0.16

- FY2024: NZD 0.30

- FY2025: NZD 0.42

- FY2026: NZD 0.39

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.40×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.89×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2023: -4.6%

- FY2024: -5.6%

- FY2025: -3.1%

- FY2026: -3.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 9% since Oct 2023 · sales -6.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.072Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -6.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: NZD 2.4B 

- FY2020: NZD 2.1B 

- FY2021: NZD 2.6B 

- FY2022: NZD 2.4B 

- FY2023: NZD 2.1B 

- FY2024: NZD 2.8B 

- FY2025: NZD 3.4B 

- FY2026: NZD 3.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 46.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: 31.5% 

- FY2020: 34.3% 

- FY2021: 32.6% 

- FY2022: 35.3% 

- FY2023: 37.8% 

- FY2024: 35.8% 

- FY2025: 40.6% 

- FY2026: 46.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities renewable; annual sales are NZD 3.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2026: revenue 3196000000; grossProfit 1481000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CEN.AU: Contact Energy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy generator and retailer in New Zealand. It operates through Wholesale and Retail segments. The company is involved in the sale of electricity to the wholesale electricity market, as well as to commercial and industrial customers; the delivery of electricity, fibre and wireless broadband plans, mobile plans, and other products and services to mass-market customers; and the delivery of natural gas to commercial and industrial, and mass-market customers. It also provides piped and bottled gas products; broadband modems; steam; geothermal well services; solar and wind activities; and roaming, group mobile plans, and eSim services. In addition, the company owns and operates hydro, geothermal, thermal, and battery storage assets. Contact Energy Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.8% to 46.3% during 2024–26; it earns 6.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 46.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); 8-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.061651150054764514],[2020,0.0496496106785317],[2021,0.06897743920304718],[2022,0.0582058492688414],[2023,0.047285004696345306],[2024,0.06852343059239611],[2025,0.11311450361810824],[2026,0.07462407235066962]]; median 0.06508729032358032. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2019-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 550000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2020-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 94000000; owner earnings 251000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2021-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 129000000; owner earnings 303000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2022-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 347000000; owner earnings 97000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2024: growth capex 256000000; upkeep 250000000; owner earnings 235000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0893617021276596.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2025: growth capex 176000000; upkeep 273000000; owner earnings 331000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5317220543806647.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/BZB.STU.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 499000000; owner earnings 215000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); Dividend observations: [[2019,251000000],[2020,280000000],[2021,274000000],[2022,242000000],[2023,243000000],[2024,248000000],[2025,198000000],[2026,267000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CEN.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 5.425 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:25.004Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21250462916441215. Price 7; FX 0.8124078517533463; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 4.50 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 4.25 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 4.49 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 4.51 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 4.54 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 4.38 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 4.80 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 4.75 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 4.95 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 5.08 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 4.90 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 5.08 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 5.14 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 4.86 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 5.09 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 5.03 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 4.87 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 4.99 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 4.96 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 5.20 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 5.38 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 5.20 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 4.98 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 5.36 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 5.13 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 5.53 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 5.68 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 5.74 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 6.09 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 6.49 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 6.34 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 6.70 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 7.63 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 7.49 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 7.85 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 7.82 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 6.77 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 6.89 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 6.95 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 7.10 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 6.35 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 5.73 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 5.90 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 5.83 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 5.89 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 5.30 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 5.71 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 6.15 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 6.95 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 7.39 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 8.61 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 7.51 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 6.41 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 6.44 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 7.04 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 7.42 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 7.79 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 7.80 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 7.82 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 7.91 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 7.69 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 7.50 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 7.69 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 7.36 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 7.67 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 7.60 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 7.35 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 6.75 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 6.65 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 6.90 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 7.09 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 6.55 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 6.60 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 6.86 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 7.25 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 7.11 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 6.95 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 7.29 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 7.23 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 7.39 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 7.46 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 7.60 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 7.82 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 7.55 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 7.71 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 7.16 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 7.60 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 7.29 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 7.40 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 7.72 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 7.93 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 8.48 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 7.96 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 7.77 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 7.73 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 7.26 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 7.96 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 8.14 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 8.26 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 8.40 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 8.07 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 8.31 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 8.50 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 8.60 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 8.35 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 8.40 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 8.14 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 8.04 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 8.47 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 8.37 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 8.00 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 7.91 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 7.91 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 7.48 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 7.72 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 8.08 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 7.83 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 7.75 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 7.18 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 6.93 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 6.70 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2023: low AUD 2.92 per share, central AUD 3.31 per share, high AUD 3.82 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 2.83 per share, central AUD 3.19 per share, high AUD 3.68 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 3.60 per share, central AUD 4.03 per share, high AUD 4.61 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 2.32 per share, central AUD 2.56 per share, high AUD 2.89 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:10.135Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations