# CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CNH

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:33.184Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $11.95 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $13.97 per share, central $15.68 per share, high $17.95 per share. Buy at or below the central value $15.68 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:33.184Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.6% at the stated quote. About 12.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.15×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 26.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.8%

- FY2017: 5.6%

- FY2018: 7.4%

- FY2019: 9.6%

- FY2020: 4.5%

- FY2021: 9.9%

- FY2022: 14.2%

- FY2023: 14.2%

- FY2024: 10.8%

- FY2025: 7.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.89×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 7.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 53.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 127.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.84×

- FY2024: 0.53×

- FY2025: 1.17×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.6% vs 10.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.19 to 0.99 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Market cap gain: $1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $8.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 23.3%

- Per-share value change: $0.80

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.19

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.99

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.00

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.19

- FY2017: $0.20

- FY2018: $0.78

- FY2019: $1.05

- FY2020: -$0.36

- FY2021: $1.27

- FY2022: $1.49

- FY2023: $1.69

- FY2024: $0.99

- FY2025: $0.41

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.98×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.61×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.6%

- FY2017: -5.4%

- FY2018: -3.2%

- FY2019: -0.9%

- FY2020: -12.4%

- FY2021: -4.8%

- FY2022: 3.7%

- FY2023: 3.0%

- FY2024: -1.7%

- FY2025: -4.7%

## Holders

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 33% since Jan 2023 · "How Investors Are Reacting To CNH (CNH) Profit Squeeze Amid Reaffirmed 2026 Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +0.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:32.011Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-01: CNH Industrial posts upbeat results, but tariffs cloud the rest of 2025 ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/cnh-industrial-posts-upbeat-results-as-costcuts-cushion-slump-in-equipment-demand-4165870))

- 2025-11-28: JPM downgrades CNH as Deere outlook signals deeper pressure on large ag demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpm-downgrades-cnh-deere-outlook-151211974.html))

- 2026-05-06: How Investors Are Reacting To CNH (CNH) Profit Squeeze Amid Reaffirmed 2026 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/investors-reacting-cnh-cnh-profit-141403565.html))

- 2026-08-03: CNH Industrial Boosts FY26 Adj. EPS Outlook - Update ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cnh-industrial-boosts-fy26-adj-eps-outlook-update))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567094/000156709426000006/cnhi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $28B 

- FY2018: $30B 

- FY2019: $28B 

- FY2020: $15B 

- FY2021: $19B 

- FY2022: $24B 

- FY2023: $25B 

- FY2024: $20B 

- FY2025: $18B 

- FY2026: $18B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 31.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567094/000156709426000006/cnhi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 20.1% 

- FY2017: 21.2% 

- FY2018: 21.8% 

- FY2019: 22.5% 

- FY2020: 24.5% 

- FY2021: 27.7% 

- FY2022: 29.6% 

- FY2023: 31.8% 

- FY2024: 32.7% 

- FY2025: 31.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are USD 18.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567094/000156709426000006/cnhi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 18095000000; grossProfit 5706000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CNH.US: CNH Industrial N.V., an equipment company, engages in the develops, manufacture, and sale agricultural and construction equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through three segments: Agriculture, Construction, and Financial Services. The Agriculture segment develops, manufactures, distributes, and supports agriculture equipment, implements, and precision agriculture solutions, such as tractors, harvesters, hay and forage equipment, seeding and planting equipment, and self-propelled sprayers under Case IH, New Holland, STEYR, and Raven brands. The Construction segment develops, manufactures, distributes, and supports construction equipment comprising excavators, crawler dozers, graders, wheel loaders, backhoe loaders, skid steer loaders, and compact track loaders under the New Holland Construction, Case Construction, and Eurocomach brands. The Financial Services segment provides and administers financing to end-use customers for the purchase of new and used agricultural and construction equipment and components, as well as revolving charge account financing and other financial services under the Banco CNH brand. This segment also offers wholesale financing to CNH dealers and distributors, as well as trade receivables factoring services. CNH Industrial N.V. was founded in 1842 and is headquartered in Basildon, the United Kingdom

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 31.5% to 32.7% during 2023–25; it earns 8.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 31.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 32.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567094/000156709426000006/cnhi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.038284583039194624],[2017,0.05587624584717608],[2018,0.0743453352726892],[2019,0.09641737312739519],[2020,0.04490968699740196],[2021,0.09864665218328729],[2022,0.14220266901981377],[2023,0.14161066959574423],[2024,0.10837965468050569],[2025,0.07139870314230701]]; median 0.0853813542000422. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 100 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 760991581.1208196; upkeep 1474008418.8791804; owner earnings 147991581.12081957. Growth capex / owner earnings = 5.142127513993853.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 565000000; upkeep 1337000000; owner earnings 1068000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5290262172284644.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1962000000; owner earnings 675000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 385000000; upkeep 536000000; owner earnings 1723000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22344747533372025.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 464000000; upkeep 535000000; owner earnings 2029000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22868408082799407.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 260882109.3117485; upkeep 934117890.6882515; owner earnings 1904882109.3117485. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1369544645500438.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1186000000; owner earnings 665000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567094/000156709426000006/cnhi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 543000000; owner earnings 596000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,201000000],[2017,168000000],[2018,243000000],[2019,283000000],[2020,8000000],[2021,188000000],[2022,423000000],[2023,538000000],[2024,607000000],[2025,333000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567094/000156709426000006/cnhi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 100000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 29.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CNH.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 29.947000000000003 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.05447382186616258. Price 11.95; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.8129126925898753 → FY2025 0.47641886490807356. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $6.76 per share

- 2016-11: $7.41 per share

- 2016-12: $7.55 per share

- 2017-01: $7.79 per share

- 2017-02: $8.03 per share

- 2017-03: $8.38 per share

- 2017-04: $9.65 per share

- 2017-05: $9.72 per share

- 2017-06: $9.89 per share

- 2017-07: $10.01 per share

- 2017-08: $9.87 per share

- 2017-09: $10.44 per share

- 2017-10: $11.04 per share

- 2017-11: $11.30 per share

- 2017-12: $11.65 per share

- 2018-01: $12.78 per share

- 2018-02: $11.69 per share

- 2018-03: $10.78 per share

- 2018-04: $10.65 per share

- 2018-05: $10.20 per share

- 2018-06: $9.15 per share

- 2018-07: $10.19 per share

- 2018-08: $10.42 per share

- 2018-09: $10.44 per share

- 2018-10: $9.03 per share

- 2018-11: $8.43 per share

- 2018-12: $8.00 per share

- 2019-01: $8.61 per share

- 2019-02: $9.46 per share

- 2019-03: $8.87 per share

- 2019-04: $9.47 per share

- 2019-05: $7.54 per share

- 2019-06: $8.93 per share

- 2019-07: $8.79 per share

- 2019-08: $8.92 per share

- 2019-09: $8.82 per share

- 2019-10: $9.48 per share

- 2019-11: $9.34 per share

- 2019-12: $9.56 per share

- 2020-01: $8.19 per share

- 2020-02: $8.08 per share

- 2020-03: $4.88 per share

- 2020-04: $5.42 per share

- 2020-05: $5.35 per share

- 2020-06: $6.11 per share

- 2020-07: $5.90 per share

- 2020-08: $6.87 per share

- 2020-09: $6.80 per share

- 2020-10: $6.75 per share

- 2020-11: $9.46 per share

- 2020-12: $11.16 per share

- 2021-01: $11.08 per share

- 2021-02: $12.90 per share

- 2021-03: $13.59 per share

- 2021-04: $12.90 per share

- 2021-05: $14.91 per share

- 2021-06: $14.53 per share

- 2021-07: $14.64 per share

- 2021-08: $14.33 per share

- 2021-09: $14.44 per share

- 2021-10: $14.87 per share

- 2021-11: $14.22 per share

- 2021-12: $16.89 per share

- 2022-01: $15.13 per share

- 2022-02: $14.33 per share

- 2022-03: $15.86 per share

- 2022-04: $14.19 per share

- 2022-05: $14.93 per share

- 2022-06: $11.59 per share

- 2022-07: $12.92 per share

- 2022-08: $12.23 per share

- 2022-09: $11.17 per share

- 2022-10: $12.94 per share

- 2022-11: $16.04 per share

- 2022-12: $16.06 per share

- 2023-01: $17.72 per share

- 2023-02: $16.47 per share

- 2023-03: $15.27 per share

- 2023-04: $14.10 per share

- 2023-05: $12.83 per share

- 2023-06: $14.40 per share

- 2023-07: $14.36 per share

- 2023-08: $13.78 per share

- 2023-09: $12.10 per share

- 2023-10: $10.98 per share

- 2023-11: $10.74 per share

- 2023-12: $12.18 per share

- 2024-01: $12.00 per share

- 2024-02: $11.95 per share

- 2024-03: $12.96 per share

- 2024-04: $11.40 per share

- 2024-05: $10.56 per share

- 2024-06: $10.13 per share

- 2024-07: $10.65 per share

- 2024-08: $10.34 per share

- 2024-09: $11.10 per share

- 2024-10: $11.23 per share

- 2024-11: $12.56 per share

- 2024-12: $11.33 per share

- 2025-01: $12.88 per share

- 2025-02: $12.88 per share

- 2025-03: $12.28 per share

- 2025-04: $11.57 per share

- 2025-05: $12.51 per share

- 2025-06: $12.96 per share

- 2025-07: $12.96 per share

- 2025-08: $11.45 per share

- 2025-09: $10.85 per share

- 2025-10: $10.49 per share

- 2025-11: $9.43 per share

- 2025-12: $9.22 per share

- 2026-01: $10.76 per share

- 2026-02: $12.30 per share

- 2026-03: $11.00 per share

- 2026-04: $10.71 per share

- 2026-05: $10.21 per share

- 2026-06: $11.23 per share

- 2026-07: $10.25 per share

- 2026-08: $11.83 per share

- 2026-09: $12.85 per share

- 2026-10: $11.95 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $4.51 per share, central $4.83 per share, high $5.11 per share

- FY2020: low $6.92 per share, central $7.01 per share, high $7.13 per share

- FY2021: low $7.18 per share, central $7.70 per share, high $8.39 per share

- FY2022: low $9.66 per share, central $10.60 per share, high $11.84 per share

- FY2023: low $18.26 per share, central $20.39 per share, high $23.22 per share

- FY2024: low $15.50 per share, central $17.33 per share, high $19.76 per share

- FY2025: low $13.97 per share, central $15.65 per share, high $17.89 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567094/000156709426000006/cnhi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): 7,148,586 CNH shares; USD 80,279,000 reported position value; 1.01% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): 4,188,940 CNH shares; USD 47,042,000 reported position value; 1.2% of portfolio; hold; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): 59,068,990 CNH shares; USD 663,344,000 reported position value; 0.88% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): 3,518,270 CNH shares; USD 39,510,000 reported position value; 2.06% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): 20,115,883 CNH shares; USD 225,901,000 reported position value; 17.11% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# CNH — CNH Industrial NV

Held by 5 investors · USD 1,056,076,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 11.23 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CNH

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Bill Nygren (https://gigainvestors.com/HA) | USD 663,344,000 | 0.9% | add +1.62% |
| William Browne (https://gigainvestors.com/TB) | USD 225,901,000 | 17% | reduce -0.17% |
| Steven Romick (https://gigainvestors.com/FPA) | USD 80,279,000 | 1.0% | add +48.64% |
| David Einhorn (https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE) | USD 47,042,000 | 1.2% | hold |
| Mason Hawkins (https://gigainvestors.com/SE) | USD 39,510,000 | 2.1% | reduce -5.34% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2023 Q1: USD 45,313,954 · 2 holders · USD 15.27
- 2023 Q2: USD 71,800,819 · 2 holders · USD 14.40
- 2023 Q3: USD 81,569,500 · 1 holder · USD 12.10
- 2023 Q4: USD 120,049,442 · 1 holder · USD 12.18
- 2024 Q1: USD 2,164,978,769 · 5 holders · USD 12.96
- 2024 Q2: USD 1,781,928,124 · 4 holders · USD 10.13
- 2024 Q3: USD 1,913,775,850 · 5 holders · USD 11.10
- 2024 Q4: USD 1,676,964,788 · 6 holders · USD 11.33
- 2025 Q1: USD 1,369,593,950 · 5 holders · USD 12.28
- 2025 Q2: USD 1,347,527,561 · 4 holders · USD 12.96
- 2025 Q3: USD 1,109,205,971 · 4 holders · USD 10.85
- 2025 Q4: USD 950,449,851 · 4 holders · USD 9.22
- 2026 Q1: USD 1,000,917,280 · 5 holders · USD 11.00
- 2026 Q2: USD 1,056,076,000 · 5 holders · USD 11.23