# CPFL Energia (CPFE3.SA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CPFE3.SA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2026.

Listing currency: BRL. Reporting currency: BRL.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: BRL 49.67 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low BRL 42.93 per share, central BRL 45.68 per share, high BRL 48.85 per share. Buy at or below the central value BRL 45.68 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.7% at the stated quote. About 15.7% a year at today's price (required return 17.0%). required return 17.0% a year (BR 10-year bond 13.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.18×

- FY2022: 0.24×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.25×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.26×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -8.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 21.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.3%

- FY2017: 7.9%

- FY2018: 10.4%

- FY2019: 11.2%

- FY2020: 12.7%

- FY2021: 14.0%

- FY2022: 17.1%

- FY2023: 18.2%

- FY2024: 16.2%

- FY2025: 16.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.31×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: BRL 34B

- Net income, five-year total: BRL 26B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.25×

- FY2022: 1.32×

- FY2023: 1.28×

- FY2024: 1.32×

- FY2025: 1.37×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.9% vs 16.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.89 to 4.76 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: BRL 36B

- Cumulative retained earnings: BRL 2.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 23.4%

- Per-share value change: BRL 3.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: BRL 0.89

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: BRL 4.76

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.60

- Average buyback yield: 2.0%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: BRL 2.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: BRL 37B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: BRL 0.89

- FY2017: BRL 1.16

- FY2018: BRL 2.02

- FY2019: BRL 2.35

- FY2020: BRL 3.16

- FY2021: BRL 4.12

- FY2022: BRL 4.43

- FY2023: BRL 4.80

- FY2024: BRL 4.74

- FY2025: BRL 4.76

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.46×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.31×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.31×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.9%

- FY2017: -2.1%

- FY2018: 2.8%

- FY2019: -7.0%

- FY2020: -5.5%

- FY2021: 1.3%

- FY2022: -5.5%

- FY2023: -4.5%

- FY2024: -1.7%

- FY2025: -2.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.2% a year for ten years · sales +2.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:05.781Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: BRL 27B 

- FY2018: BRL 28B 

- FY2019: BRL 30B 

- FY2020: BRL 31B 

- FY2021: BRL 39B 

- FY2022: BRL 39B 

- FY2023: BRL 40B 

- FY2024: BRL 43B 

- FY2025: BRL 44B 

- FY2026: BRL 46B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 30.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 20.7% 

- FY2017: 17.2% 

- FY2018: 19.3% 

- FY2019: 20.5% 

- FY2020: 21.1% 

- FY2021: 22.5% 

- FY2022: 30.1% 

- FY2023: 34.2% 

- FY2024: 31.8% 

- FY2025: 30.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated electric; annual sales are BRL 44.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2025: revenue 44367780000; grossProfit 13657647000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.8% to 34.2% during 2023–25; it earns 13.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 34.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07288701461935367],[2017,0.0793327271246178],[2018,0.10449723623376947],[2019,0.11212431531842013],[2020,0.12742075050136742],[2021,0.13957565114330345],[2022,0.17080411987071062],[2023,0.18158362405364037],[2024,0.16199192268671364],[2025,0.16232983363694395]]; median 0.13349820082233543. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back BRL 800000 of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2017: growth capex 1041381000; upkeep 1529052000; owner earnings 1179750000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8827132867132867.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 292850000; owner earnings 3359254000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 208141000; owner earnings 4175583000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 357068000; owner earnings 4952080000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 575479000; owner earnings 5923985000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 395703000; owner earnings 6735328000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 678203000; owner earnings 7098516000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 531044000; owner earnings 7229732000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 369941000; owner earnings 7511600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,231749000],[2017,336934000],[2018,322163000],[2019,528248000],[2020,2116379000],[2021,4298495000],[2022,3872339000],[2023,3570467000],[2024,3479652000],[2025,3519769000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 800000 BRL.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 83.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CPFE3.SA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 83.707 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 22.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.272Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.01876077421778701. Price 49.67; FX 1; discount 0.1695; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8497175647429004 → FY2025 6.519046488344935. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (BRL per share)

- 2016-10: BRL 24.22 per share

- 2016-11: BRL 24.66 per share

- 2016-12: BRL 25.21 per share

- 2017-01: BRL 25.33 per share

- 2017-02: BRL 25.54 per share

- 2017-03: BRL 25.77 per share

- 2017-04: BRL 26.00 per share

- 2017-05: BRL 26.29 per share

- 2017-06: BRL 26.51 per share

- 2017-07: BRL 26.86 per share

- 2017-08: BRL 27.09 per share

- 2017-09: BRL 27.22 per share

- 2017-10: BRL 27.50 per share

- 2017-11: BRL 20.99 per share

- 2017-12: BRL 19.35 per share

- 2018-01: BRL 21.45 per share

- 2018-02: BRL 24.07 per share

- 2018-03: BRL 24.91 per share

- 2018-04: BRL 24.19 per share

- 2018-05: BRL 22.90 per share

- 2018-06: BRL 21.67 per share

- 2018-07: BRL 21.75 per share

- 2018-08: BRL 22.10 per share

- 2018-09: BRL 23.87 per share

- 2018-10: BRL 25.15 per share

- 2018-11: BRL 26.90 per share

- 2018-12: BRL 28.85 per share

- 2019-01: BRL 32.60 per share

- 2019-02: BRL 30.69 per share

- 2019-03: BRL 30.48 per share

- 2019-04: BRL 29.82 per share

- 2019-05: BRL 30.74 per share

- 2019-06: BRL 30.43 per share

- 2019-07: BRL 32.23 per share

- 2019-08: BRL 32.40 per share

- 2019-09: BRL 32.89 per share

- 2019-10: BRL 33.02 per share

- 2019-11: BRL 31.59 per share

- 2019-12: BRL 35.55 per share

- 2020-01: BRL 38.27 per share

- 2020-02: BRL 35.53 per share

- 2020-03: BRL 26.87 per share

- 2020-04: BRL 29.04 per share

- 2020-05: BRL 32.25 per share

- 2020-06: BRL 30.66 per share

- 2020-07: BRL 31.40 per share

- 2020-08: BRL 28.74 per share

- 2020-09: BRL 27.56 per share

- 2020-10: BRL 27.87 per share

- 2020-11: BRL 31.35 per share

- 2020-12: BRL 32.55 per share

- 2021-01: BRL 31.11 per share

- 2021-02: BRL 28.86 per share

- 2021-03: BRL 30.42 per share

- 2021-04: BRL 29.35 per share

- 2021-05: BRL 28.71 per share

- 2021-06: BRL 26.91 per share

- 2021-07: BRL 25.32 per share

- 2021-08: BRL 29.04 per share

- 2021-09: BRL 26.93 per share

- 2021-10: BRL 26.31 per share

- 2021-11: BRL 26.40 per share

- 2021-12: BRL 26.83 per share

- 2022-01: BRL 28.93 per share

- 2022-02: BRL 30.26 per share

- 2022-03: BRL 32.27 per share

- 2022-04: BRL 36.15 per share

- 2022-05: BRL 33.70 per share

- 2022-06: BRL 30.88 per share

- 2022-07: BRL 32.84 per share

- 2022-08: BRL 34.97 per share

- 2022-09: BRL 33.76 per share

- 2022-10: BRL 35.42 per share

- 2022-11: BRL 34.90 per share

- 2022-12: BRL 33.20 per share

- 2023-01: BRL 33.28 per share

- 2023-02: BRL 30.29 per share

- 2023-03: BRL 31.65 per share

- 2023-04: BRL 33.14 per share

- 2023-05: BRL 30.28 per share

- 2023-06: BRL 34.39 per share

- 2023-07: BRL 35.78 per share

- 2023-08: BRL 34.15 per share

- 2023-09: BRL 33.61 per share

- 2023-10: BRL 33.44 per share

- 2023-11: BRL 37.05 per share

- 2023-12: BRL 38.51 per share

- 2024-01: BRL 36.26 per share

- 2024-02: BRL 35.39 per share

- 2024-03: BRL 34.81 per share

- 2024-04: BRL 31.90 per share

- 2024-05: BRL 34.10 per share

- 2024-06: BRL 32.73 per share

- 2024-07: BRL 32.48 per share

- 2024-08: BRL 34.09 per share

- 2024-09: BRL 33.93 per share

- 2024-10: BRL 32.77 per share

- 2024-11: BRL 32.62 per share

- 2024-12: BRL 31.59 per share

- 2025-01: BRL 34.38 per share

- 2025-02: BRL 35.08 per share

- 2025-03: BRL 37.70 per share

- 2025-04: BRL 38.19 per share

- 2025-05: BRL 40.49 per share

- 2025-06: BRL 40.86 per share

- 2025-07: BRL 37.91 per share

- 2025-08: BRL 39.37 per share

- 2025-09: BRL 39.40 per share

- 2025-10: BRL 41.60 per share

- 2025-11: BRL 48.77 per share

- 2025-12: BRL 53.29 per share

- 2026-01: BRL 51.46 per share

- 2026-02: BRL 50.35 per share

- 2026-03: BRL 48.76 per share

- 2026-04: BRL 48.93 per share

- 2026-05: BRL 43.39 per share

- 2026-06: BRL 44.78 per share

- 2026-07: BRL 46.14 per share

- 2026-08: BRL 44.54 per share

- 2026-09: BRL 45.51 per share

- 2026-10: BRL 50.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (BRL per share)

- FY2016: low BRL 10.56 per share, central BRL 11.06 per share, high BRL 11.47 per share

- FY2017: low BRL 9.51 per share, central BRL 9.97 per share, high BRL 10.49 per share

- FY2018: low BRL 9.92 per share, central BRL 10.42 per share, high BRL 11.00 per share

- FY2019: low BRL 10.94 per share, central BRL 13.12 per share, high BRL 13.96 per share

- FY2020: low BRL 27.18 per share, central BRL 33.38 per share, high BRL 35.74 per share

- FY2021: low BRL 36.00 per share, central BRL 46.18 per share, high BRL 49.85 per share

- FY2022: low BRL 34.25 per share, central BRL 36.37 per share, high BRL 38.81 per share

- FY2023: low BRL 37.26 per share, central BRL 39.53 per share, high BRL 42.14 per share

- FY2024: low BRL 39.96 per share, central BRL 42.54 per share, high BRL 45.50 per share

- FY2025: low BRL 41.07 per share, central BRL 43.74 per share, high BRL 46.83 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:23.234Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations