# Carter's (CRI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CRI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:43.956Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $32.64 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $87.50 per share, central $97.33 per share, high $110.42 per share. Buy at or below the central value $97.33 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:43.956Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 40.1% at the stated quote. About 40.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.13×

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 44.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 45.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 31.1%

- FY2017: 29.9%

- FY2018: 28.5%

- FY2019: 16.1%

- FY2020: 11.4%

- FY2021: 29.2%

- FY2022: 19.2%

- FY2023: 18.2%

- FY2024: 15.0%

- FY2025: 8.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.08×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 16.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.17×

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.9% vs 15.0%

- Per-share earnings: 5.12 to 5.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- Market cap gain: -$3.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $107M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 0.2%

- Per-share value change: $0.10

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.26

- Average buyback yield: 4.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $187M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.12

- FY2017: $6.29

- FY2018: $6.05

- FY2019: $5.90

- FY2020: $2.53

- FY2021: $7.90

- FY2022: $6.44

- FY2023: $6.35

- FY2024: $5.22

- FY2025: $2.59

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -1.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 16.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.33×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.54×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.7%

- FY2017: -1.3%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -4.5%

- FY2020: -14.1%

- FY2021: 2.2%

- FY2022: 6.6%

- FY2023: -12.5%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: -1.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 68% since Dec 2021 · "Carter’s (NYSE:CRI) Q2 CY2026 Sales Top Estimates But Quarterly Revenue Guidance Misses Expectations" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +1.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:34.242Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 20% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-28: Carter's Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Stock Down on Paused Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carters-q1-earnings-beat-estimates-171100389.html))

- 2025-07-25: U.S. import tariffs to impact Carter's profits going ahead; shares tank ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4472329-us-import-tariffs-to-impact-carters-profits-going-ahead-shares-tank?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-28: Carter’s to cut 150 stores and 15% of office jobs amid tariff challenges ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carter-cut-150-stores-15-145520588.html))

- 2026-05-06: Carter’s shares climb premarket after earnings, revenue beat in Q1 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carter-shares-climb-premarket-earnings-104825253.html))

- 2026-06-18: Carter's (CRI) Stock Could Be 2% Overvalued After Strong Earnings And Higher Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carters-cri-stock-could-2-020946041.html))

- 2026-07-31: Carter’s (NYSE:CRI) Q2 CY2026 Sales Top Estimates But Quarterly Revenue Guidance Misses Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/carter-nyse-cri-q2-cy2026-101917331.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060822/000106082226000016/cri-20260103.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $3.2B 

- FY2017: $3.4B 

- FY2018: $3.5B 

- FY2019: $3.5B 

- FY2020: $3.0B 

- FY2021: $3.5B 

- FY2022: $3.2B 

- FY2023: $2.9B 

- FY2024: $2.8B 

- FY2025: $2.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 45.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060822/000106082226000016/cri-20260103.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 43.1% 

- FY2017: 43.6% 

- FY2018: 43.3% 

- FY2019: 42.9% 

- FY2020: 43.4% 

- FY2021: 47.7% 

- FY2022: 45.8% 

- FY2023: 47.4% 

- FY2024: 48.0% 

- FY2025: 45.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in apparel retail; annual sales are USD 2.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060822/000106082226000016/cri-20260103.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 2898426000; grossProfit 1314636000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 45.4% to 48% during 2023–25; it earns 18.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 47.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060822/000106082226000016/cri-20260103.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 45.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.31115150557764504],[2017,0.29946924164744415],[2018,0.2851419188368866],[2019,0.1611640224359759],[2020,0.11405429048363974],[2021,0.2917233606367711],[2022,0.19235311450390252],[2023,0.18225175630321547],[2024,0.14999286373340343],[2025,0.08054112999819896]]; median 0.187302435403559. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 46% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060822/000106082226000016/cri-20260103.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.4767826206675004],[2022,0.4582883171430679],[2023,0.4739061119760564]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 4.5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 15115000; upkeep 73441000; owner earnings 258106000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05856121128528589.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 69473000; owner earnings 317703000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 63783000; owner earnings 307938000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 61419000; owner earnings 298337000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 32871000; owner earnings 170845000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 37442000; owner earnings 396414000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 40364000; owner earnings 274950000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 59860000; owner earnings 236779000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 56165000; owner earnings 187270000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060822/000106082226000016/cri-20260103.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 53704000; owner earnings 93355000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,66355000],[2017,70914000],[2018,83717000],[2019,89591000],[2020,26260000],[2021,60124000],[2022,118113000],[2023,112005000],[2024,116178000],[2025,56359000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060822/000106082226000016/cri-20260103.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 4516000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); CRI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.805000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060822/000106082226000016/cri-20260103.htm (filed 2026-02-27); ur consolidated statement of operations.

Dividend Update

In each of the second, third, and fourth quarters of fiscal 2025, the Board declared, and the Company paid, a cash dividend per common share of $0.25, which represented a 69% reduction when compared to the cash dividend per common share paid of $0.80 in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. The action was taken to realign our dividend with our current level of profitability, especially against the backdrop of a challenging market environment and the significantly higher product costs the Company will incur as the result of the incremental tariffs on products imported into the United States.

Leadership Transition

On March 26, 2025, the Company announced the appointment of Douglas C. Palladini as Chief Executive Officer and President and a member of the Board, effective April 3, 2025. Mr. Palladini brings extensive leadership and brand-building experience to the role and succeeded Richard F. Westenberger, then serving as Interim Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Westenberger continues to serve as our Chief Financial Officer & Chief Operating Officer.

Known or Anticipated Trends

Trade Policy

Following its inauguration in January 2025, the second Trump Administration has made numerous announcements and taken action to increase tariffs assessed on products imported into the United States, which introduced heightened uncertainty across the global economy. Given that we source all of our apparel and other products from a global network of third-party suppliers—primarily located in Asia—any new or increased tariffs, quotas, embargoes, or other trade barriers have the potential to adversely affect our supply chain, cost structure, margins, and competitiveness. Additionally, retaliatory actions taken by impacted countries could further disrupt global trade and create additional inflationary pressures in raw materials and logistics. We estimate that Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and India will collectively represent approximately 75%, and China less than 3%, of our product sourcing spend in fiscal 2026. In fiscal 2025, 60% of the fabric used in the manufacture of our products was sourced from China; however, the fibers used to produce that fabric were sourced from outside of China.

In fiscal 2025, we paid approximately $110 million of incremental tariffs related to imports from India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and other countries. These incremental tariffs unfavorably impacted product costs by approximately $60 million in fiscal 2025, which was partially offset by higher average unit retail (“AUR”) in the second half of fiscal 2025. As of January 3, 2026, approximately $50 million of incremental tariff costs were capitalized within our inventory balances.

Following a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court that invalidated certain incremental tariffs, we are assessing our potential refund rights and in

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 20% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 4.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.2870709406692119. Price 32.64; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.095829901898238 → FY2025 2.636780424867504. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $86.34 per share

- 2016-11: $91.29 per share

- 2016-12: $86.39 per share

- 2017-01: $83.75 per share

- 2017-02: $88.01 per share

- 2017-03: $89.80 per share

- 2017-04: $92.04 per share

- 2017-05: $82.16 per share

- 2017-06: $88.95 per share

- 2017-07: $86.73 per share

- 2017-08: $86.71 per share

- 2017-09: $98.75 per share

- 2017-10: $96.73 per share

- 2017-11: $108.32 per share

- 2017-12: $117.49 per share

- 2018-01: $120.30 per share

- 2018-02: $116.68 per share

- 2018-03: $104.10 per share

- 2018-04: $100.32 per share

- 2018-05: $109.01 per share

- 2018-06: $108.39 per share

- 2018-07: $104.83 per share

- 2018-08: $105.93 per share

- 2018-09: $98.60 per share

- 2018-10: $95.98 per share

- 2018-11: $92.50 per share

- 2018-12: $81.62 per share

- 2019-01: $82.90 per share

- 2019-02: $97.44 per share

- 2019-03: $100.79 per share

- 2019-04: $105.91 per share

- 2019-05: $84.11 per share

- 2019-06: $97.54 per share

- 2019-07: $93.02 per share

- 2019-08: $91.48 per share

- 2019-09: $91.21 per share

- 2019-10: $100.24 per share

- 2019-11: $103.31 per share

- 2019-12: $109.34 per share

- 2020-01: $106.07 per share

- 2020-02: $91.47 per share

- 2020-03: $65.73 per share

- 2020-04: $78.20 per share

- 2020-05: $85.91 per share

- 2020-06: $80.70 per share

- 2020-07: $78.72 per share

- 2020-08: $79.62 per share

- 2020-09: $86.58 per share

- 2020-10: $81.45 per share

- 2020-11: $88.99 per share

- 2020-12: $94.07 per share

- 2021-01: $88.04 per share

- 2021-02: $83.47 per share

- 2021-03: $88.93 per share

- 2021-04: $108.79 per share

- 2021-05: $102.24 per share

- 2021-06: $103.17 per share

- 2021-07: $97.74 per share

- 2021-08: $102.38 per share

- 2021-09: $97.24 per share

- 2021-10: $98.52 per share

- 2021-11: $101.03 per share

- 2021-12: $101.22 per share

- 2022-01: $93.12 per share

- 2022-02: $96.68 per share

- 2022-03: $91.99 per share

- 2022-04: $84.24 per share

- 2022-05: $77.05 per share

- 2022-06: $70.48 per share

- 2022-07: $81.48 per share

- 2022-08: $73.85 per share

- 2022-09: $65.53 per share

- 2022-10: $67.87 per share

- 2022-11: $73.04 per share

- 2022-12: $74.61 per share

- 2023-01: $83.37 per share

- 2023-02: $75.39 per share

- 2023-03: $71.92 per share

- 2023-04: $69.77 per share

- 2023-05: $62.17 per share

- 2023-06: $72.60 per share

- 2023-07: $75.01 per share

- 2023-08: $71.57 per share

- 2023-09: $69.15 per share

- 2023-10: $67.16 per share

- 2023-11: $68.19 per share

- 2023-12: $74.89 per share

- 2024-01: $75.64 per share

- 2024-02: $80.95 per share

- 2024-03: $84.68 per share

- 2024-04: $68.41 per share

- 2024-05: $68.40 per share

- 2024-06: $61.97 per share

- 2024-07: $60.55 per share

- 2024-08: $65.90 per share

- 2024-09: $64.98 per share

- 2024-10: $54.70 per share

- 2024-11: $54.57 per share

- 2024-12: $54.19 per share

- 2025-01: $53.92 per share

- 2025-02: $41.27 per share

- 2025-03: $40.90 per share

- 2025-04: $33.05 per share

- 2025-05: $31.37 per share

- 2025-06: $30.13 per share

- 2025-07: $24.24 per share

- 2025-08: $28.56 per share

- 2025-09: $28.22 per share

- 2025-10: $31.40 per share

- 2025-11: $31.91 per share

- 2025-12: $32.43 per share

- 2026-01: $34.61 per share

- 2026-02: $33.55 per share

- 2026-03: $35.76 per share

- 2026-04: $36.12 per share

- 2026-05: $38.59 per share

- 2026-06: $41.16 per share

- 2026-07: $38.57 per share

- 2026-08: $32.39 per share

- 2026-09: $31.31 per share

- 2026-10: $32.64 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $59.51 per share, central $83.00 per share, high $96.69 per share

- FY2017: low $70.58 per share, central $99.85 per share, high $116.89 per share

- FY2018: low $89.11 per share, central $129.00 per share, high $151.25 per share

- FY2019: low $93.36 per share, central $125.51 per share, high $146.55 per share

- FY2020: low $88.56 per share, central $97.46 per share, high $109.31 per share

- FY2021: low $125.97 per share, central $174.01 per share, high $200.80 per share

- FY2022: low $81.15 per share, central $91.82 per share, high $106.01 per share

- FY2023: low $85.79 per share, central $96.67 per share, high $111.17 per share

- FY2024: low $80.36 per share, central $90.06 per share, high $102.97 per share

- FY2025: low $84.05 per share, central $93.97 per share, high $107.17 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060822/000106082226000016/cri-20260103.htm); period 2026-01-03, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations



# CRI — Carters Inc.

Held by 1 investor · USD 330,057 total · 2025 Q3 · reported price USD 28.21 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CRI

## Holders (2025 Q3)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Bill Nygren (https://gigainvestors.com/HA) | USD 330,057 | 0.0% | reduce -15.65% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2018 Q4: USD 599,981 · 1 holder · USD 81.63
- 2019 Q1: USD 741,027 · 1 holder · USD 100.82
- 2019 Q2: USD 818,025 · 1 holder · USD 97.50
- 2019 Q3: USD 945,039 · 1 holder · USD 91.22
- 2019 Q4: USD 1,366,031 · 1 holder · USD 109.37
- 2020 Q1: USD 820,968 · 1 holder · USD 65.73
- 2020 Q2: USD 1,091,064 · 1 holder · USD 80.70
- 2020 Q3: USD 1,306,040 · 1 holder · USD 86.55
- 2020 Q4: USD 1,944,954 · 1 holder · USD 94.05
- 2021 Q1: USD 2,004,044 · 1 holder · USD 88.95
- 2021 Q2: USD 2,647,086 · 1 holder · USD 103.16
- 2021 Q3: USD 3,025,136 · 1 holder · USD 97.24
- 2021 Q4: USD 3,331,150 · 1 holder · USD 101.22
- 2022 Q1: USD 3,830,047 · 1 holder · USD 91.98
- 2022 Q2: USD 2,935,204 · 1 holder · USD 70.49
- 2022 Q3: USD 2,729,086 · 1 holder · USD 65.54
- 2022 Q4: USD 2,622,147 · 1 holder · USD 74.62
- 2023 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q1: USD 111,645,669 · 1 holder · USD 84.68
- 2024 Q2: USD 88,885,307 · 2 holders · USD 61.97
- 2024 Q3: USD 61,249,499 · 2 holders · USD 64.98
- 2024 Q4: USD 28,547,888 · 2 holders · USD 54.19
- 2025 Q1: USD 4,995,444 · 1 holder · USD 40.90
- 2025 Q2: USD 418,042 · 1 holder · USD 30.14
- 2025 Q3: USD 330,057 · 1 holder · USD 28.21
- 2025 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders