# Cosan (CSAN3.SA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CSAN3.SA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:15.696Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: BRL. Reporting currency: BRL.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: BRL 4.92 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low BRL 1.12 per share, central BRL 1.23 per share, high BRL 1.27 per share. Buy at or below the central value BRL 1.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:15.696Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.8% at the stated quote. About 4.8% a year at today's price (required return 17.0%). required return 17.0% a year (BR 10-year bond 13.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.18×

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.9%

- FY2017: 6.0%

- FY2018: 6.3%

- FY2019: 11.0%

- FY2020: 6.3%

- FY2021: 9.4%

- FY2022: 10.0%

- FY2023: 10.3%

- FY2024: 11.9%

- FY2025: 15.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: BRL -20B

- Net income, five-year total: BRL -11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 30.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.0%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: BRL 5.7B

- FY2022: BRL 882M

- FY2023: BRL 226M

- FY2024: BRL -11B

- FY2025: BRL -16B

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.3% vs 11.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.62 to -2.46 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 8.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 22.9%

- Market cap gain: BRL 5.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: BRL -14B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 8.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 22.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: BRL -3.08

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: BRL 0.62

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: BRL -2.46

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.45

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: BRL 17B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: BRL -3.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: BRL 0.62

- FY2017: BRL 0.78

- FY2018: BRL 1.05

- FY2019: BRL 1.54

- FY2020: BRL 0.61

- FY2021: BRL 3.37

- FY2022: BRL 0.59

- FY2023: BRL 0.59

- FY2024: BRL -5.06

- FY2025: BRL -2.46

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.12×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 5.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.4%

- FY2017: -1.7%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -1.2%

- FY2020: -1.5%

- FY2021: 1.1%

- FY2022: -6.5%

- FY2023: -6.6%

- FY2024: -15.9%

- FY2025: -13.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 79% since Jan 2022 · sales -8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.836Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 36.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1430162/000155485526000590/csan-20251231.htm; observed 2026-04-10.

- FY2016: BRL 7.5B 

- FY2017: BRL 7.7B 

- FY2018: BRL 10B 

- FY2019: BRL 14B 

- FY2020: BRL 14B 

- FY2021: BRL 25B 

- FY2022: BRL 39B 

- FY2023: BRL 39B 

- FY2024: BRL 44B 

- FY2025: BRL 40B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 32.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1430162/000155485526000590/csan-20251231.htm; observed 2026-04-10.

- FY2016: 39.2% 

- FY2017: 34.2% 

- FY2018: 25.3% 

- FY2019: 29.3% 

- FY2020: 27.3% 

- FY2021: 23.2% 

- FY2022: 22.3% 

- FY2023: 27.7% 

- FY2024: 31.2% 

- FY2025: 32.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas refining & marketing; annual sales are BRL 40.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1430162/000155485526000590/csan-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-10); FY2025: revenue 40418596000; grossProfit 13175609000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CSAN3.SA: Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments. The company's Raízen segment engages in the production, marketing, origination, and trading of sugar, as well as ethanol; production and marketing of bioenergy, and solar energy and biogas; trading and resale of electricity; and trading and marketing of fossil, renewable fuels, and lubricants under the Shell brand. Its Compass segment distributes piped natural gas to industrial, residential, commercial, automotive, and cogeneration customers; and marketing of natural gas. The company's Moove segment produces, formulates, and distributes lubricants, base oils, and specialties under the Mobil brand and various proprietary brands for industrial, commercial, and passenger vehicles. Its Rumo segment provides logistics services for rail transportation, storage, and port loading of commodities, including grains and sugar; locomotive and railcar leasing; and rail equipment and container operations. The company's Radar segment manages agricultural property. The company operates in Brazil, England, France, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay, Paraguay, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Oceania, the United States, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Cosan S.A. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.7% to 32.6% during 2023–25; it earns 10% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1430162/000155485526000590/csan-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09934545188622265],[2017,0.059796665918135365],[2018,0.0634685650310527],[2019,0.1103578107559433],[2020,0.06316530423787191],[2021,0.09401914437106303],[2022,0.09967091917611151],[2023,0.1025763256154704],[2024,0.11863769606040848],[2025,0.15484168654990324]]; median 0.09950818553116708. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back BRL 532 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 491279000; owner earnings 1160120000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 408489000; owner earnings 1503522000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2018: growth capex 71369000; upkeep 560191000; owner earnings 1652321000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04319318098601906.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2019: growth capex 152898442.19621897; upkeep 666849557.803781; owner earnings 2317275842.196219. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0659819773770688.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1052502000; owner earnings 414111400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2021: growth capex 1845192000; upkeep 2221536000; owner earnings 5658604400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3260860575445069.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2022: growth capex 1516894000; upkeep 3014480000; owner earnings 881518358.8740373. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7207741446673075.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); FY2023: growth capex 119820716.59399986; upkeep 6148141283.406; owner earnings 226364271.7133534. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5293269811842465.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,1899978000],[2017,1239363000],[2018,1045257000],[2019,945171000],[2020,764996000],[2021,1841494000],[2022,1908171000],[2023,2582447000],[2024,3447103000],[2025,2693295000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1430162/000155485526000590/csan-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 532026000 BRL.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 43.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CSAN3.SA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 43.913999999999994 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 36.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.5282275418889213. Price 4.92; FX 1; discount 0.1695; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.3168740584963439 → FY2025 -3.933324729399113. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (BRL per share)

- 2016-11: BRL 9.87 per share

- 2016-12: BRL 9.54 per share

- 2017-01: BRL 10.07 per share

- 2017-02: BRL 9.98 per share

- 2017-03: BRL 9.72 per share

- 2017-04: BRL 9.28 per share

- 2017-05: BRL 9.01 per share

- 2017-06: BRL 8.65 per share

- 2017-07: BRL 9.02 per share

- 2017-08: BRL 9.65 per share

- 2017-09: BRL 9.05 per share

- 2017-10: BRL 9.35 per share

- 2017-11: BRL 8.96 per share

- 2017-12: BRL 10.38 per share

- 2018-01: BRL 10.91 per share

- 2018-02: BRL 10.84 per share

- 2018-03: BRL 10.38 per share

- 2018-04: BRL 9.94 per share

- 2018-05: BRL 9.70 per share

- 2018-06: BRL 8.80 per share

- 2018-07: BRL 9.22 per share

- 2018-08: BRL 8.70 per share

- 2018-09: BRL 8.10 per share

- 2018-10: BRL 8.06 per share

- 2018-11: BRL 8.61 per share

- 2018-12: BRL 8.36 per share

- 2019-01: BRL 11.10 per share

- 2019-02: BRL 10.93 per share

- 2019-03: BRL 10.66 per share

- 2019-04: BRL 11.72 per share

- 2019-05: BRL 11.78 per share

- 2019-06: BRL 11.54 per share

- 2019-07: BRL 12.72 per share

- 2019-08: BRL 12.50 per share

- 2019-09: BRL 13.30 per share

- 2019-10: BRL 14.45 per share

- 2019-11: BRL 15.52 per share

- 2019-12: BRL 17.39 per share

- 2020-01: BRL 19.92 per share

- 2020-02: BRL 18.29 per share

- 2020-03: BRL 13.44 per share

- 2020-04: BRL 15.09 per share

- 2020-05: BRL 16.46 per share

- 2020-06: BRL 17.73 per share

- 2020-07: BRL 22.60 per share

- 2020-08: BRL 20.81 per share

- 2020-09: BRL 17.08 per share

- 2020-10: BRL 16.25 per share

- 2020-11: BRL 19.39 per share

- 2020-12: BRL 18.93 per share

- 2021-01: BRL 18.76 per share

- 2021-02: BRL 20.35 per share

- 2021-03: BRL 22.85 per share

- 2021-04: BRL 22.51 per share

- 2021-05: BRL 23.37 per share

- 2021-06: BRL 23.96 per share

- 2021-07: BRL 25.55 per share

- 2021-08: BRL 22.05 per share

- 2021-09: BRL 22.98 per share

- 2021-10: BRL 19.79 per share

- 2021-11: BRL 21.25 per share

- 2021-12: BRL 21.63 per share

- 2022-01: BRL 23.77 per share

- 2022-02: BRL 21.11 per share

- 2022-03: BRL 23.65 per share

- 2022-04: BRL 21.00 per share

- 2022-05: BRL 21.61 per share

- 2022-06: BRL 18.20 per share

- 2022-07: BRL 18.67 per share

- 2022-08: BRL 19.98 per share

- 2022-09: BRL 17.38 per share

- 2022-10: BRL 16.86 per share

- 2022-11: BRL 18.03 per share

- 2022-12: BRL 17.12 per share

- 2023-01: BRL 16.70 per share

- 2023-02: BRL 14.98 per share

- 2023-03: BRL 15.09 per share

- 2023-04: BRL 14.98 per share

- 2023-05: BRL 15.00 per share

- 2023-06: BRL 17.86 per share

- 2023-07: BRL 19.94 per share

- 2023-08: BRL 17.52 per share

- 2023-09: BRL 17.14 per share

- 2023-10: BRL 15.75 per share

- 2023-11: BRL 17.75 per share

- 2023-12: BRL 19.36 per share

- 2024-01: BRL 18.27 per share

- 2024-02: BRL 17.00 per share

- 2024-03: BRL 16.20 per share

- 2024-04: BRL 14.50 per share

- 2024-05: BRL 13.62 per share

- 2024-06: BRL 13.54 per share

- 2024-07: BRL 13.37 per share

- 2024-08: BRL 13.36 per share

- 2024-09: BRL 13.08 per share

- 2024-10: BRL 11.82 per share

- 2024-11: BRL 10.19 per share

- 2024-12: BRL 8.16 per share

- 2025-01: BRL 7.74 per share

- 2025-02: BRL 7.09 per share

- 2025-03: BRL 7.39 per share

- 2025-04: BRL 7.77 per share

- 2025-05: BRL 8.23 per share

- 2025-06: BRL 6.86 per share

- 2025-07: BRL 5.93 per share

- 2025-08: BRL 5.85 per share

- 2025-09: BRL 6.17 per share

- 2025-10: BRL 6.15 per share

- 2025-11: BRL 6.16 per share

- 2025-12: BRL 5.32 per share

- 2026-01: BRL 5.90 per share

- 2026-02: BRL 6.29 per share

- 2026-03: BRL 5.38 per share

- 2026-04: BRL 5.04 per share

- 2026-05: BRL 3.80 per share

- 2026-06: BRL 3.70 per share

- 2026-07: BRL 4.07 per share

- 2026-08: BRL 3.90 per share

- 2026-09: BRL 3.96 per share

- 2026-10: BRL 5.11 per share

## Annual estimated value (BRL per share)

- FY2016: low BRL 3.16 per share, central BRL 3.20 per share, high BRL 3.24 per share

- FY2017: low BRL 5.02 per share, central BRL 5.15 per share, high BRL 5.29 per share

- FY2018: low BRL 9.68 per share, central BRL 11.30 per share, high BRL 11.99 per share

- FY2019: low BRL 13.34 per share, central BRL 13.91 per share, high BRL 14.56 per share

- FY2020: low BRL 21.47 per share, central BRL 22.10 per share, high BRL 22.82 per share

- FY2021: low BRL 24.72 per share, central BRL 25.82 per share, high BRL 26.93 per share

- FY2022: low BRL 22.32 per share, central BRL 23.88 per share, high BRL 25.42 per share

- FY2023: low BRL 6.78 per share, central BRL 8.17 per share, high BRL 8.67 per share

- FY2024: low BRL 6.72 per share, central BRL 7.85 per share, high BRL 8.26 per share

- FY2025: low BRL 1.67 per share, central BRL 1.78 per share, high BRL 1.82 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:56.037Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1430162/000155485526000590/csan-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations