# Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/CVE.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:51.025Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: CAD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 45.42 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 26.04 per share, central CAD 29.48 per share, high CAD 34.05 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 29.48 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:51.025Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.99×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.02×

- FY2017: 0.01×

- FY2018: -0.06×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: -0.13×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -4.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 10.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.0%

- FY2017: 0.7%

- FY2018: -4.5%

- FY2019: 7.0%

- FY2020: -5.8%

- FY2021: 9.7%

- FY2022: 24.4%

- FY2023: 13.3%

- FY2024: 10.9%

- FY2025: 9.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.06×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CAD 19B

- Net income, five-year total: CAD 18B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -7.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 3.33×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 0.84×

- FY2025: 0.99×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -1.0% vs 10.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.74 to 2.11 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 8.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 8.7%

- Market cap gain: CAD 26B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CAD 12B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 8.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 8.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 14.0%

- Per-share value change: CAD 1.37

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CAD 0.74

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CAD 2.11

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 3.6%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CAD 3.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CAD 17B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -1.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CAD -0.65

- FY2017: CAD 1.98

- FY2018: CAD -2.35

- FY2019: CAD 1.78

- FY2020: CAD -1.94

- FY2021: CAD 0.29

- FY2022: CAD 3.25

- FY2023: CAD 2.18

- FY2024: CAD 1.61

- FY2025: CAD 2.11

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.42×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.09×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.6%

- FY2017: -1.5%

- FY2018: -14.3%

- FY2019: -3.1%

- FY2020: -8.1%

- FY2021: -9.9%

- FY2022: -8.9%

- FY2023: -6.1%

- FY2024: -10.8%

- FY2025: -6.8%

## Holders

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.5% a year for ten years · sales -8.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.001Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: Canada's Cenovus Energy second-quarter profit falls on lower production ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-cenovus-energy-posts-lower-101051194.html))

- 2026-02-23: Cenovus Energy Q4 Earnings Top Estimates on Higher Upstream Production ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cenovus-energy-q4-earnings-top-145100018.html))

- 2026-04-16: Cenovus MEG Deal Reshapes Oil Sands Scale Valuation And Earnings Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/cenovus-meg-deal-reshapes-oil-210444376.html))

- 2026-07-14: Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE) Expands Output As Higher Oil Prices Come Back Into Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/cenovus-energy-tsx-cve-expands-181414214.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -8.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1475260/000147526026000008/cve-20251231_d2.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: CAD 11B 

- FY2017: CAD 17B 

- FY2018: CAD 21B 

- FY2019: CAD 20B 

- FY2020: CAD 14B 

- FY2021: CAD 46B 

- FY2022: CAD 67B 

- FY2023: CAD 52B 

- FY2024: CAD 54B 

- FY2025: CAD 50B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 10.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1475260/000147526026000008/cve-20251231_d2.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 1.0% 

- FY2017: 3.2% 

- FY2019: 10.5% 

- FY2021: 12.4% 

- FY2022: 17.0% 

- FY2023: 11.8% 

- FY2024: 10.4% 

- FY2025: 10.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are CAD 49.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1475260/000147526026000008/cve-20251231_d2.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 49696000000; grossProfit 5196000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.4% to 11.8% during 2023–25; it earns 8.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 11.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1475260/000147526026000008/cve-20251231_d2.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 10.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.009670140595811621],[2017,0.007289944385991282],[2018,-0.04536494338182281],[2019,0.06995819859610379],[2020,-0.05802660848733744],[2021,0.09726821952190015],[2022,0.24398577956302447],[2023,0.1331979816678112],[2024,0.10858918344617532],[2025,0.09578521897872408]]; median 0.08287170878741393. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CAD 2.5 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1670000000; owner earnings 2644000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1183000000; owner earnings 2901800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2563000000; owner earnings 1953600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 3758000000; owner earnings 6662800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 4298000000; owner earnings 4073400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 5015000000; owner earnings 2637600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1475260/000147526026000008/cve-20251231_d2.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 4820000000; owner earnings 3910000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,166000000],[2017,225000000],[2018,245000000],[2019,260000000],[2020,77000000],[2021,210000000],[2022,927000000],[2023,1026000000],[2024,1551000000],[2025,1437000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1475260/000147526026000008/cve-20251231_d2.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 2500000000 CAD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 29.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); CVE.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 29.711 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08011803188686065. Price 45.42; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.3536541461658467 → FY2025 2.097639484978541. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-10: CAD 19.35 per share

- 2016-11: CAD 20.77 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 20.30 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 17.76 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 16.80 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 15.05 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 13.61 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 12.05 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 9.56 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 10.47 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 9.77 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 12.51 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 12.52 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 12.30 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 11.48 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 11.73 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 9.34 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 10.97 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 12.86 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 13.68 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 13.65 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 13.05 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 12.10 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 12.97 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 11.14 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 9.82 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 9.60 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 10.26 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 12.06 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 11.60 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 13.28 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 11.08 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 11.55 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 12.27 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 11.62 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 12.43 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 11.22 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 11.74 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 13.20 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 11.52 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 9.87 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 2.84 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 5.05 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 6.00 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 6.35 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 5.96 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 6.16 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 5.19 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 4.36 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 6.44 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 7.75 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 7.55 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 9.42 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 9.44 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 9.57 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 10.09 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 11.86 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 10.41 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 10.47 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 12.77 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 14.80 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 15.16 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 15.51 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 18.49 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 19.93 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 20.84 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 23.75 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 29.32 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 24.49 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 24.40 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 24.64 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 21.22 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 27.54 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 26.75 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 26.27 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 26.58 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 25.16 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 23.58 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 22.74 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 21.69 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 22.50 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 25.08 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 26.94 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 28.28 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 26.42 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 24.07 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 22.08 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 21.78 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 23.65 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 27.08 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 28.28 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 28.41 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 26.89 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 27.82 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 24.99 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 22.62 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 22.39 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 22.18 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 21.79 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 21.02 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 20.01 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 20.00 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 16.23 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 18.08 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 18.53 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 21.09 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 22.84 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 23.63 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 23.70 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 24.93 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 23.22 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 26.87 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 30.39 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 36.92 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 39.74 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 38.06 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 35.19 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 42.27 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 44.52 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 44.24 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 46.65 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2016: low CAD 9.32 per share, central CAD 10.03 per share, high CAD 10.97 per share

- FY2017: low CAD 5.81 per share, central CAD 6.58 per share, high CAD 7.61 per share

- FY2018: low CAD 7.14 per share, central CAD 8.08 per share, high CAD 9.34 per share

- FY2019: low CAD 15.74 per share, central CAD 18.21 per share, high CAD 21.17 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 11.58 per share, central CAD 13.04 per share, high CAD 14.99 per share

- FY2022: low CAD 17.11 per share, central CAD 19.25 per share, high CAD 22.09 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 24.29 per share, central CAD 27.55 per share, high CAD 31.89 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 15.76 per share, central CAD 17.79 per share, high CAD 20.49 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 23.68 per share, central CAD 26.81 per share, high CAD 30.98 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:36.478Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1475260/000147526026000008/cve-20251231_d2.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): 39,735 CVE shares; USD 990,000 reported position value; 0.01% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.