# Deutsche Post AG (DHL.XETRA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DHL.XETRA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 57.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 27.81 per share, central EUR 31.32 per share, high EUR 36.00 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 31.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; DE 10-year bond 3.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.06×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 10.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: 81.1%

- FY2018: 12.0%

- FY2019: 12.4%

- FY2020: 17.9%

- FY2021: 21.7%

- FY2022: 17.1%

- FY2023: 12.1%

- FY2024: 8.9%

- FY2025: 9.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.59×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 12B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 21B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 980.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.54×

- FY2022: 0.54×

- FY2023: 0.52×

- FY2024: 0.64×

- FY2025: 0.74×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 81.1% vs 9.6%

- Per-share earnings: 2.19 to 2.99 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: EUR 17B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 13B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.0%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.80

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 2.19

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 2.99

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.58

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 3.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 34B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 81.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 2.19

- FY2017: EUR 2.24

- FY2018: EUR 1.69

- FY2019: EUR 2.13

- FY2020: EUR 2.41

- FY2021: EUR 4.10

- FY2022: EUR 4.37

- FY2023: EUR 3.05

- FY2024: EUR 2.82

- FY2025: EUR 2.99

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.40×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.66×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.5%

- FY2017: -1.5%

- FY2018: -7.4%

- FY2019: -6.6%

- FY2020: -8.5%

- FY2021: -7.8%

- FY2022: -8.2%

- FY2023: -8.4%

- FY2024: -7.7%

- FY2025: -6.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9% a year for ten years · "DHL Group raises earnings forecast after pre-tax income jumps 29%" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales -1.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.738Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-05: New US de minimis policy could trim DHL profit by 3% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-minimis-policy-could-trim-212846947.html))

- 2026-03-05: DHL's cautious profit outlook sends shares lower ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/dhls-cautious-profit-outlook-sends-113641237.html))

- 2026-07-07: DHL Group raises earnings forecast after pre-tax income jumps 29% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dhl-group-raises-earnings-forecast-161700693.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 57B 

- FY2017: EUR 60B 

- FY2018: EUR 62B 

- FY2019: EUR 63B 

- FY2020: EUR 67B 

- FY2021: EUR 82B 

- FY2022: EUR 94B 

- FY2023: EUR 82B 

- FY2024: EUR 84B 

- FY2025: EUR 83B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 10.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 10.3% 

- FY2017: 10.6% 

- FY2018: 9.4% 

- FY2019: 9.8% 

- FY2020: 11.0% 

- FY2021: 12.9% 

- FY2022: 12.0% 

- FY2023: 10.8% 

- FY2024: 10.2% 

- FY2025: 10.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are EUR 82.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2025: revenue 82855000000; grossProfit 8992000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DHL.XETRA: DHL AG provides logistics and mail communication services in Germany and Internationally. The company operates through five segments: Express, Global Forwarding, Supply Chain, eCommerce, and Post and Parcel Germany. Its Express segment offers time-definite courier and express delivery services for business and private customers, including Time Definite International cross-border transport with standardized transit times, medical express temperature-controlled shipment solutions, general cargo air freight, door-to-door courier services, and customs clearance, operating a global air freight network with dedicated aircraft and service points across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Americas, and Asia Pacific. The Global Forwarding segment provides international air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services through its Global Forwarding and Freight business units. The Supply Chain segment delivers contract logistics services and supply chain solutions built on modular components, including warehousing, transport, e-fulfillment, and value-added services. The eCommerce segment provides international and domestic parcel delivery services in selected countries across Europe, Asia, and the United States, along with non-TDI cross-border parcel services. The Post and Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers documents and goods within Germany and provides export services through its Post Germany, Parcel Germany, and International business units, offering physical and hybrid letter delivery, registered mail, insured items, redirection and storage services, dialogue marketing, national and international parcel and goods shipments, Packstation automated parcel lockers, Poststation combined parcel and postal services, and electronic communications services. DHL AG was formerly known as Deutsche Post AG and changed its name to DHL AG in September, 2026. DHL AG was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Bonn, Germany.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.2% to 10.9% during 2023–25; it earns 14.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 10.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,1.8270777929246655],[2017,0.8114231597203734],[2018,0.11971019226325989],[2019,0.12356117751180094],[2020,0.1785437552333977],[2021,0.21656596121426785],[2022,0.17121680911433085],[2023,0.12133704614878858],[2024,0.0889925168027717],[2025,0.0962753263638374]]; median 0.1473889933130659. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 1.4 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1966000000; owner earnings 2019000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2017: growth capex 419252618.2555995; upkeep 1783747381.7444005; owner earnings 2372252618.2555995. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1767318602703833.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2649000000; owner earnings 2702000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3612000000; owner earnings 590800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2922000000; owner earnings 1687200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 3736000000; owner earnings 2724000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 3912000000; owner earnings 2874200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3381000000; owner earnings 1927000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2936000000; owner earnings 2126000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2795000000; owner earnings 2608200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,1027000000],[2017,1270000000],[2018,1409000000],[2019,1419000000],[2020,1422000000],[2021,1673000000],[2022,2205000000],[2023,2205000000],[2024,2169000000],[2025,2123000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 1446000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 17.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); DHL.XETRA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 17.733999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:47.126Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11675500878861877. Price 57.7; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.057465776728373 → FY2025 2.2282478643394996. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 28.23 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 29.49 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 31.24 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 30.96 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 32.38 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 32.11 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 33.00 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 32.52 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 32.82 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 32.80 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 34.85 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 37.67 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 39.32 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 39.89 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 39.75 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 38.07 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 37.64 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 35.52 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 36.10 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 32.47 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 27.97 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 30.19 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 31.41 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 30.71 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 27.95 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 28.12 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 23.91 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 25.76 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 27.32 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 29.00 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 30.90 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 26.38 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 28.90 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 29.51 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 29.90 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 30.65 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 31.75 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 33.84 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 34.01 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 31.58 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 27.12 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 24.78 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 27.15 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 27.98 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 32.55 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 34.26 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 38.12 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 38.90 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 38.04 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 40.50 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 40.50 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 40.81 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 41.06 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 46.72 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 48.96 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 55.80 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 57.36 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 57.11 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 59.58 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 54.48 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 53.52 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 52.17 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 56.54 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 52.99 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 45.16 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 43.55 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 40.92 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 38.51 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 35.74 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 38.90 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 36.40 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 31.12 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 35.91 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 37.83 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 35.18 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 39.38 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 40.12 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 43.09 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 43.52 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 42.05 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 44.73 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 46.72 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 43.09 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 38.54 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 36.76 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 43.04 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 44.86 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 44.52 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 42.91 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 39.92 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 39.26 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 38.66 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 37.79 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 41.25 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 39.20 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 40.03 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 36.93 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 34.77 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 33.98 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 34.81 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 37.69 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 39.48 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 37.51 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 39.37 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 39.21 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 39.45 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 38.88 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 37.94 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 39.80 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 44.83 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 46.73 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 47.32 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 50.10 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 44.75 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 50.38 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 51.20 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 53.10 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 57.76 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 56.14 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 57.00 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 56.42 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 16.49 per share, central EUR 18.76 per share, high EUR 21.79 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 19.23 per share, central EUR 21.88 per share, high EUR 25.41 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 19.47 per share, central EUR 22.13 per share, high EUR 25.66 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 19.76 per share, central EUR 22.48 per share, high EUR 26.11 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 22.62 per share, central EUR 25.48 per share, high EUR 29.29 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 29.31 per share, central EUR 36.83 per share, high EUR 42.64 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 29.75 per share, central EUR 38.63 per share, high EUR 45.09 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 19.16 per share, central EUR 21.74 per share, high EUR 25.19 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 21.21 per share, central EUR 25.45 per share, high EUR 29.57 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 25.21 per share, central EUR 28.46 per share, high EUR 32.78 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:33.127Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations