# Dine Brands Global (DIN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DIN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:01.133Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $33.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $92.34 per share, central $104.20 per share, high $120.00 per share. Buy at or below the central value $104.20 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:01.133Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 30.2% at the stated quote. About 30.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.18×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.29×

- FY2017: 0.22×

- FY2018: 0.23×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.22×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.23×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.16×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 43.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 19.1%

- FY2017: 17.7%

- FY2018: 17.0%

- FY2019: 13.7%

- FY2020: 7.0%

- FY2021: 16.8%

- FY2022: 13.6%

- FY2023: 17.5%

- FY2024: 13.6%

- FY2025: 10.3%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.16×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $415M

- Net income, five-year total: $358M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -18.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.24×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 1.39×

- FY2025: 1.43×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.7% vs 13.6%

- Per-share earnings: 5.57 to 4.35 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Market cap gain: -$955M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$207M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -3.1%

- Per-share value change: -$1.23

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.57

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.35

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 5.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $69M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $197M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.57

- FY2017: -$19.32

- FY2018: $4.52

- FY2019: $6.05

- FY2020: -$6.41

- FY2021: $5.79

- FY2022: $5.10

- FY2023: $6.39

- FY2024: $4.35

- FY2025: $1.20

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 14.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.20×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.8%

- FY2017: -23.5%

- FY2018: -3.4%

- FY2019: -2.5%

- FY2020: -9.7%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: -0.4%

- FY2023: -2.0%

- FY2024: -2.4%

- FY2025: -4.1%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 61% since Oct 2021 · sales +8.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:38.248Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 15.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-06: Dine Brands raises Applebee’s comp sales outlook to 1%-3% while accelerating dual brand expansion ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4480199-dine-brands-raises-applebee-s-comp-sales-outlook-to-1-percentminus-3-percent-while?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +8.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49754/000162828026011393/din-20251228.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $788M 

- FY2017: $732M 

- FY2018: $781M 

- FY2019: $910M 

- FY2020: $689M 

- FY2021: $896M 

- FY2022: $909M 

- FY2023: $831M 

- FY2024: $812M 

- FY2025: $879M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 39.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49754/000162828026011393/din-20251228.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 48.8% 

- FY2017: 46.3% 

- FY2018: 45.2% 

- FY2019: 42.1% 

- FY2020: 36.1% 

- FY2021: 41.9% 

- FY2022: 41.5% 

- FY2023: 47.7% 

- FY2024: 46.2% 

- FY2025: 39.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are USD 879.3 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49754/000162828026011393/din-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 879300000; grossProfit 350800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); DIN.US: Dine Brands Global, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns, franchises, and operates restaurants in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Franchise, Company-owned restaurants, and Rental. The company franchises the restaurants operated by Applebee's franchisees, IHOP franchisees, and Fuzzy's franchisees in the United States. It owns, franchises, and operates restaurant concepts, including Applebee's Neighborhood Grill + Bar within the casual dining category; IHOP in the family dining category of the restaurant industry; and Fuzzy's Taco Shop within the fast-casual dining category. In addition, its Applebee's restaurants offer American fare with drinks and local draft beers; IHOP restaurants provided full table services and food and beverages; Fuzzy's Taco Shop offers mexican food, such as tacos, chips and queso, guacamole, and salsa made-from-scratch daily; and a full bar including margaritas, cocktails, and cold draft beer. The company was formerly known as DineEquity, Inc. and changed its name to Dine Brands Global, Inc. in February 2018. Dine Brands Global, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is based in Pasadena, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39.9% to 47.7% during 2023–25; it earns 15.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 47.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49754/000162828026011393/din-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.19057209319278223],[2017,0.1773082059387184],[2018,0.16972257852697314],[2019,0.13682550947552874],[2020,0.07043656122371714],[2021,0.168315791338644],[2022,0.13556578499931515],[2023,0.17471654489747446],[2024,0.13599333275926043],[2025,0.10275530648830239]]; median 0.15257065040708637. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 60.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 5637000; owner earnings 125971000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 14279000; owner earnings 98250000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 19424000; owner earnings 127415000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 16849000; owner earnings 120900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 35318000; owner earnings 83745000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 37172000; owner earnings 95634000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 14069000; owner earnings 89974000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49754/000162828026011393/din-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 35600000; owner earnings 24400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,67429000],[2017,69790000],[2018,51125000],[2019,46859000],[2020,23934000],[2021,25337000],[2022,30765000],[2023,31715000],[2024,31302000],[2025,31000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49754/000162828026011393/din-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 60700000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); DIN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.961 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 15.8% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 13.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.23164477710425896. Price 33; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.986413043478261 → FY2025 1.7062937062937062. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $79.10 per share

- 2016-11: $83.58 per share

- 2016-12: $77.00 per share

- 2017-01: $68.58 per share

- 2017-02: $59.82 per share

- 2017-03: $54.42 per share

- 2017-04: $56.54 per share

- 2017-05: $45.75 per share

- 2017-06: $44.05 per share

- 2017-07: $41.14 per share

- 2017-08: $39.75 per share

- 2017-09: $42.98 per share

- 2017-10: $47.61 per share

- 2017-11: $45.87 per share

- 2017-12: $50.73 per share

- 2018-01: $55.38 per share

- 2018-02: $75.98 per share

- 2018-03: $65.58 per share

- 2018-04: $79.34 per share

- 2018-05: $63.45 per share

- 2018-06: $74.80 per share

- 2018-07: $71.03 per share

- 2018-08: $83.42 per share

- 2018-09: $81.31 per share

- 2018-10: $81.04 per share

- 2018-11: $89.18 per share

- 2018-12: $67.34 per share

- 2019-01: $76.27 per share

- 2019-02: $99.20 per share

- 2019-03: $91.29 per share

- 2019-04: $88.66 per share

- 2019-05: $94.42 per share

- 2019-06: $95.47 per share

- 2019-07: $82.09 per share

- 2019-08: $70.55 per share

- 2019-09: $75.86 per share

- 2019-10: $73.15 per share

- 2019-11: $82.88 per share

- 2019-12: $83.52 per share

- 2020-01: $85.25 per share

- 2020-02: $81.85 per share

- 2020-03: $28.68 per share

- 2020-04: $44.39 per share

- 2020-05: $45.39 per share

- 2020-06: $42.10 per share

- 2020-07: $45.43 per share

- 2020-08: $59.56 per share

- 2020-09: $54.59 per share

- 2020-10: $51.45 per share

- 2020-11: $62.97 per share

- 2020-12: $58.00 per share

- 2021-01: $68.76 per share

- 2021-02: $79.11 per share

- 2021-03: $90.03 per share

- 2021-04: $96.65 per share

- 2021-05: $94.95 per share

- 2021-06: $89.25 per share

- 2021-07: $77.47 per share

- 2021-08: $82.72 per share

- 2021-09: $81.21 per share

- 2021-10: $84.51 per share

- 2021-11: $71.82 per share

- 2021-12: $75.81 per share

- 2022-01: $67.85 per share

- 2022-02: $83.84 per share

- 2022-03: $77.95 per share

- 2022-04: $71.69 per share

- 2022-05: $73.49 per share

- 2022-06: $65.08 per share

- 2022-07: $71.31 per share

- 2022-08: $66.60 per share

- 2022-09: $63.56 per share

- 2022-10: $72.09 per share

- 2022-11: $74.59 per share

- 2022-12: $64.60 per share

- 2023-01: $77.31 per share

- 2023-02: $76.67 per share

- 2023-03: $67.64 per share

- 2023-04: $64.93 per share

- 2023-05: $59.83 per share

- 2023-06: $58.03 per share

- 2023-07: $60.32 per share

- 2023-08: $54.78 per share

- 2023-09: $49.45 per share

- 2023-10: $49.29 per share

- 2023-11: $43.47 per share

- 2023-12: $49.65 per share

- 2024-01: $46.65 per share

- 2024-02: $48.51 per share

- 2024-03: $46.48 per share

- 2024-04: $44.10 per share

- 2024-05: $39.45 per share

- 2024-06: $36.20 per share

- 2024-07: $35.84 per share

- 2024-08: $31.62 per share

- 2024-09: $31.23 per share

- 2024-10: $30.44 per share

- 2024-11: $35.92 per share

- 2024-12: $30.10 per share

- 2025-01: $30.38 per share

- 2025-02: $25.08 per share

- 2025-03: $23.27 per share

- 2025-04: $19.91 per share

- 2025-05: $24.06 per share

- 2025-06: $24.33 per share

- 2025-07: $22.61 per share

- 2025-08: $23.95 per share

- 2025-09: $24.72 per share

- 2025-10: $24.72 per share

- 2025-11: $31.25 per share

- 2025-12: $32.14 per share

- 2026-01: $34.39 per share

- 2026-02: $30.96 per share

- 2026-03: $26.24 per share

- 2026-04: $27.78 per share

- 2026-05: $31.38 per share

- 2026-06: $35.90 per share

- 2026-07: $35.94 per share

- 2026-08: $33.08 per share

- 2026-09: $27.83 per share

- 2026-10: $33.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $82.85 per share, central $93.33 per share, high $107.27 per share

- FY2017: low $76.41 per share, central $86.15 per share, high $99.12 per share

- FY2018: low $67.20 per share, central $75.52 per share, high $86.61 per share

- FY2019: low $86.43 per share, central $97.57 per share, high $112.39 per share

- FY2020: low $81.17 per share, central $89.22 per share, high $99.94 per share

- FY2021: low $93.30 per share, central $103.36 per share, high $116.75 per share

- FY2022: low $94.46 per share, central $105.31 per share, high $119.74 per share

- FY2023: low $77.28 per share, central $86.77 per share, high $99.39 per share

- FY2024: low $77.28 per share, central $86.36 per share, high $98.45 per share

- FY2025: low $82.18 per share, central $92.44 per share, high $106.11 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49754/000162828026011393/din-20251228.htm); period 2025-12-28, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): 296,323 DIN shares; USD 10,638,000 reported position value; 0.02% of portfolio; new; quarter 2026 Q2.

# DIN — Dine Brands Global Inc.

Held by 1 investor · USD 10,638,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 35.90 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/DIN

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Matthew McLennan (https://gigainvestors.com/FE) | USD 10,638,000 | <0.1% | new |

## Total held by quarter

- 2019 Q4: USD 1,670,000 · 1 holder · USD 83.50
- 2020 Q1: USD 672,100 · 1 holder · USD 28.60
- 2020 Q2: USD 1,073,040 · 1 holder · USD 42.08
- 2020 Q3: USD 1,392,045 · 1 holder · USD 54.59
- 2020 Q4: USD 1,481,040 · 1 holder · USD 58.08
- 2021 Q1: USD 2,296,020 · 1 holder · USD 90.04
- 2021 Q2: USD 2,272,050 · 1 holder · USD 89.10
- 2021 Q3: USD 2,068,050 · 1 holder · USD 81.10
- 2021 Q4: USD 1,931,115 · 1 holder · USD 75.73
- 2022 Q1: USD 1,987,980 · 1 holder · USD 77.96
- 2022 Q2: USD 1,301,000 · 1 holder · USD 65.05
- 2022 Q3: USD 1,270,000 · 1 holder · USD 63.50
- 2022 Q4: USD 1,291,000 · 1 holder · USD 64.55
- 2023 Q1: USD 1,353,000 · 1 holder · USD 67.65
- 2023 Q2: USD 7,658,940 · 2 holders · USD 58.03
- 2023 Q3: USD 9,212,041 · 2 holders · USD 49.45
- 2023 Q4: USD 12,741,779 · 2 holders · USD 49.65
- 2024 Q1: USD 12,086,287 · 1 holder · USD 46.48
- 2024 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2025 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2025 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2025 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2025 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2026 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2026 Q2: USD 10,638,000 · 1 holder · USD 35.90