# Ecopetrol (EC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:09.753Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: COP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $17.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $35.74 per share, central $40.53 per share, high $46.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value $40.53 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:09.753Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 20.2% at the stated quote. About 20.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.18×

- FY2017: 0.29×

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.29×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.32×

- FY2022: 0.38×

- FY2023: 0.29×

- FY2024: 0.29×

- FY2025: 0.22×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.0%

- FY2017: 12.9%

- FY2018: 17.3%

- FY2019: 18.0%

- FY2020: 5.0%

- FY2021: 11.9%

- FY2022: 18.5%

- FY2023: 15.1%

- FY2024: 13.6%

- FY2025: 9.7%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.16×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: COP 104.75T

- Net income, five-year total: COP 90.55T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 65.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 11.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 18.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.25×

- FY2024: 1.27×

- FY2025: 1.64×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.9% vs 13.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1190.70 to 6732.62 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: COP 5.66T

- Cumulative retained earnings: COP 10.85T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 24.2%

- Per-share value change: COP 6K

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: COP 1K

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: COP 7K

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.02

- Average buyback yield: 6.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: COP 25.27T

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: COP 126.89T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: COP 1K

- FY2017: COP 3K

- FY2018: COP 6K

- FY2019: COP 7K

- FY2020: COP 771.79

- FY2021: COP 8K

- FY2022: COP 15K

- FY2023: COP 10K

- FY2024: COP 7K

- FY2025: COP 4K

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -6.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.82×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.01×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.22×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.2%

- FY2017: -6.6%

- FY2018: -8.7%

- FY2019: -10.3%

- FY2020: -5.5%

- FY2021: -2.8%

- FY2022: -1.5%

- FY2023: 2.4%

- FY2024: -9.6%

- FY2025: -6.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 10% a year for ten years · sales -16.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:40.219Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 10% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-14: Ecopetrol Warns of Significant Hit to Profits Amid Lower Oil Price ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecopetrol-warns-significant-hit-profits-135400455.html))

- 2025-08-13: Ecopetrol ADR earnings missed by $286.18, revenue fell short of estimates ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/ecopetrol-adr-earnings-missed-by-28618-revenue-fell-short-of-estimates-4187040))

- 2025-12-31: Ecopetrol (EC) Gets Complete Control of Southern Caribbean Offshore Assets ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecopetrol-ec-gets-complete-control-101836646.html))

- 2026-03-05: Ecopetrol Eyes Oil Output Boost As Iran Crisis Pushes Up Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecopetrol-eyes-oil-output-boost-210000922.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -16.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444406/000110465926053172/ec-20251231x20f.htm; observed 2026-04-30.

- FY2016: COP 48.49T 

- FY2017: COP 55.95T 

- FY2018: COP 68.60T 

- FY2019: COP 71.49T 

- FY2020: COP 50.22T 

- FY2021: COP 91.88T 

- FY2022: COP 159.61T 

- FY2023: COP 143.19T 

- FY2024: COP 133.33T 

- FY2025: COP 111.48T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 31.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444406/000110465926053172/ec-20251231x20f.htm; observed 2026-04-30.

- FY2016: 29.4% 

- FY2017: 34.0% 

- FY2018: 40.0% 

- FY2019: 37.1% 

- FY2020: 25.2% 

- FY2021: 39.5% 

- FY2022: 44.0% 

- FY2023: 38.4% 

- FY2024: 35.1% 

- FY2025: 31.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are COP 111.5 trillion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444406/000110465926053172/ec-20251231x20f.htm (filed 2026-04-30); FY2025: revenue 111481569764000; grossProfit 35054654712000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 31.4% to 38.4% during 2023–25; it earns 13.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 38.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444406/000110465926053172/ec-20251231x20f.htm (filed 2026-04-30); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07006949789449735],[2017,0.12936622779167847],[2018,0.17260571377437894],[2019,0.18030135154822877],[2020,0.049831240958698494],[2021,0.11855760802590198],[2022,0.1854566358119727],[2023,0.15110284042113398],[2024,0.1359851294586181],[2025,0.0969333163035132]]; median 0.13267567862514829. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back COP 16.8 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3589274712000; owner earnings 6465606288000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 5842591196000; owner earnings 9617294804000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2018: growth capex 1526808643000; upkeep 7704850000000; owner earnings 11381386000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13414962316540358.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2019: growth capex 4319988360494.1836; upkeep 9659011639505.816; owner earnings 12667782360494.184. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.34102167510917486.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2021: growth capex 3135078000000; upkeep 10159922000000; owner earnings 15649143000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20033544328913092.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2022: growth capex 9750009000000; upkeep 12128991000000; owner earnings 31604781000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.30849791365426643.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 8651377261000; owner earnings 26221420739000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 10283102970000; owner earnings 17518020791407.562. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444406/000110465926053172/ec-20251231x20f.htm (filed 2026-04-30); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 9102456100000; owner earnings 13752877000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); Dividend observations: [[2016,1685228286000],[2017,1518395693000],[2018,4892425267000],[2019,13867000000000],[2020,8734000000000],[2021,2771000000000],[2022,13357000000000],[2023,5154689070000],[2024,16810888203000],[2025,10913074612000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444406/000110465926053172/ec-20251231x20f.htm (filed 2026-04-30); FY2025: cash repurchases 16764985000 COP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.004 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 10% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-30); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.15247907431780938. Price 17.7; FX 0.00031; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -8138.818463371593 → FY2025 6768.797694660659. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $8.69 per share

- 2016-11: $8.56 per share

- 2016-12: $9.05 per share

- 2017-01: $9.40 per share

- 2017-02: $9.02 per share

- 2017-03: $9.32 per share

- 2017-04: $9.14 per share

- 2017-05: $9.13 per share

- 2017-06: $9.09 per share

- 2017-07: $9.34 per share

- 2017-08: $9.21 per share

- 2017-09: $9.49 per share

- 2017-10: $11.09 per share

- 2017-11: $11.60 per share

- 2017-12: $14.63 per share

- 2018-01: $18.87 per share

- 2018-02: $17.51 per share

- 2018-03: $19.33 per share

- 2018-04: $22.08 per share

- 2018-05: $21.49 per share

- 2018-06: $20.55 per share

- 2018-07: $21.37 per share

- 2018-08: $22.60 per share

- 2018-09: $26.93 per share

- 2018-10: $23.26 per share

- 2018-11: $19.21 per share

- 2018-12: $15.88 per share

- 2019-01: $18.85 per share

- 2019-02: $20.24 per share

- 2019-03: $21.44 per share

- 2019-04: $18.49 per share

- 2019-05: $16.39 per share

- 2019-06: $18.29 per share

- 2019-07: $17.93 per share

- 2019-08: $15.79 per share

- 2019-09: $17.03 per share

- 2019-10: $18.25 per share

- 2019-11: $18.31 per share

- 2019-12: $19.96 per share

- 2020-01: $18.50 per share

- 2020-02: $17.65 per share

- 2020-03: $9.51 per share

- 2020-04: $10.45 per share

- 2020-05: $10.41 per share

- 2020-06: $11.13 per share

- 2020-07: $11.64 per share

- 2020-08: $11.39 per share

- 2020-09: $9.84 per share

- 2020-10: $9.25 per share

- 2020-11: $11.52 per share

- 2020-12: $12.91 per share

- 2021-01: $11.38 per share

- 2021-02: $12.25 per share

- 2021-03: $12.82 per share

- 2021-04: $11.83 per share

- 2021-05: $11.94 per share

- 2021-06: $14.62 per share

- 2021-07: $13.51 per share

- 2021-08: $13.96 per share

- 2021-09: $14.35 per share

- 2021-10: $15.15 per share

- 2021-11: $12.85 per share

- 2021-12: $12.89 per share

- 2022-01: $14.74 per share

- 2022-02: $16.17 per share

- 2022-03: $18.60 per share

- 2022-04: $16.23 per share

- 2022-05: $16.90 per share

- 2022-06: $10.86 per share

- 2022-07: $10.74 per share

- 2022-08: $10.31 per share

- 2022-09: $8.93 per share

- 2022-10: $9.86 per share

- 2022-11: $9.87 per share

- 2022-12: $10.47 per share

- 2023-01: $11.39 per share

- 2023-02: $11.09 per share

- 2023-03: $10.56 per share

- 2023-04: $9.72 per share

- 2023-05: $9.08 per share

- 2023-06: $10.25 per share

- 2023-07: $11.72 per share

- 2023-08: $11.68 per share

- 2023-09: $11.58 per share

- 2023-10: $11.81 per share

- 2023-11: $12.61 per share

- 2023-12: $11.92 per share

- 2024-01: $12.03 per share

- 2024-02: $11.70 per share

- 2024-03: $11.84 per share

- 2024-04: $11.61 per share

- 2024-05: $12.30 per share

- 2024-06: $11.19 per share

- 2024-07: $10.72 per share

- 2024-08: $9.84 per share

- 2024-09: $8.93 per share

- 2024-10: $7.70 per share

- 2024-11: $8.03 per share

- 2024-12: $7.92 per share

- 2025-01: $9.28 per share

- 2025-02: $9.88 per share

- 2025-03: $10.44 per share

- 2025-04: $8.11 per share

- 2025-05: $8.47 per share

- 2025-06: $8.85 per share

- 2025-07: $8.40 per share

- 2025-08: $9.40 per share

- 2025-09: $9.21 per share

- 2025-10: $9.32 per share

- 2025-11: $9.82 per share

- 2025-12: $10.02 per share

- 2026-01: $12.57 per share

- 2026-02: $11.89 per share

- 2026-03: $14.99 per share

- 2026-04: $14.16 per share

- 2026-05: $14.61 per share

- 2026-06: $14.24 per share

- 2026-07: $16.77 per share

- 2026-08: $16.67 per share

- 2026-09: $16.48 per share

- 2026-10: $17.52 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $12.59 per share, central $14.06 per share, high $16.01 per share

- FY2017: low $13.77 per share, central $15.47 per share, high $17.73 per share

- FY2018: low $16.63 per share, central $18.70 per share, high $21.47 per share

- FY2019: low $25.41 per share, central $35.83 per share, high $41.89 per share

- FY2020: low $14.68 per share, central $16.57 per share, high $19.09 per share

- FY2021: low $27.95 per share, central $31.51 per share, high $36.25 per share

- FY2022: low $57.11 per share, central $80.50 per share, high $94.26 per share

- FY2023: low $51.30 per share, central $69.74 per share, high $81.52 per share

- FY2024: low $45.98 per share, central $62.33 per share, high $72.83 per share

- FY2025: low $32.87 per share, central $37.24 per share, high $43.05 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:33:51.141Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444406/000110465926053172/ec-20251231x20f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-30.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations



# EC — Ecopetrol SA Sponsored ADR

Held by 1 investor · USD 31,415,925 total · 2025 Q2 · reported price USD 8.85 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EC

## Holders (2025 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Howard Marks (https://gigainvestors.com/oc) | USD 31,415,925 | 0.8% | add +12.26% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2025 Q1: USD 33,012,554 · 1 holder · USD 10.44
- 2025 Q2: USD 31,415,925 · 1 holder · USD 8.85
- 2025 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders