# Evolution Mining (EVN.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EVN.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 12.23 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 6.31 per share, central AUD 8.76 per share, high AUD 10.19 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 8.76 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.0% at the stated quote. About 8.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.23×

- FY2019: 0.22×

- FY2020: 0.31×

- FY2021: 0.28×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.34×

- FY2026: 0.42×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -8.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 27.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 25.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.1%

- FY2018: 11.7%

- FY2019: 9.7%

- FY2020: 16.7%

- FY2021: 12.2%

- FY2022: 7.5%

- FY2023: 5.0%

- FY2024: 9.9%

- FY2025: 17.7%

- FY2026: 27.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 3.2B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 3.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 62.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.54×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.1% vs 17.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.13 to 0.46 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Market cap gain: AUD 20B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 2.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 17.3%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.33

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.46

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 2.0%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 154M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 4.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.13

- FY2018: AUD 0.15

- FY2019: AUD 0.13

- FY2020: AUD 0.18

- FY2021: AUD 0.19

- FY2022: AUD 0.18

- FY2023: AUD 0.09

- FY2024: AUD 0.21

- FY2025: AUD 0.46

- FY2026: AUD 0.73

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.36×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.79×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -14.7%

- FY2018: -14.7%

- FY2019: -12.9%

- FY2020: -18.6%

- FY2021: -10.4%

- FY2022: -6.8%

- FY2023: -8.5%

- FY2024: -9.7%

- FY2025: -10.8%

- FY2026: -11.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 26% since Feb 2026 · sales +27.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:03.075Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +27.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 1.5B 

- FY2018: AUD 1.5B 

- FY2019: AUD 1.5B 

- FY2020: AUD 1.9B 

- FY2021: AUD 1.9B 

- FY2022: AUD 2.1B 

- FY2023: AUD 2.2B 

- FY2024: AUD 3.2B 

- FY2025: AUD 4.4B 

- FY2026: AUD 5.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 44.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 22.2% 

- FY2018: 26.0% 

- FY2019: 25.0% 

- FY2020: 33.6% 

- FY2021: 30.9% 

- FY2022: 23.6% 

- FY2023: 18.7% 

- FY2024: 28.7% 

- FY2025: 35.8% 

- FY2026: 44.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are AUD 5.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2026: revenue 5558774000; grossProfit 2490751000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28.7% to 44.8% during 2024–26; it earns 10.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 28.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 44.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.10070503361197218],[2018,0.11744158307075701],[2019,0.09650420012660196],[2020,0.1673082261632438],[2021,0.1224863734057568],[2022,0.07461820112924601],[2023,0.04953621798759522],[2024,0.09916075998581428],[2025,0.17696603966793445],[2026,0.26984102747736266]]; median 0.1090733083413646. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 28.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 62% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 307928000; owner earnings 364234000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 339788000; owner earnings 255210000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2020: growth capex 32149000; upkeep 437051000; owner earnings 292925600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10975141810753311.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 437321000; owner earnings 287045600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2022: growth capex 198748000; upkeep 470355000; owner earnings 318954400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6231235562199486.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2023: growth capex 242035561.42907786; upkeep 596639438.5709221; owner earnings 88377961.42907786. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.7386415970152034.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2024: growth capex 234480000; upkeep 683789000; owner earnings 403176200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5815819485376369.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2025: growth capex 415531000; upkeep 760848000; owner earnings 926169000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4486556989059232.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); FY2026: growth capex 425601000; upkeep 778865000; owner earnings 1475055000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28853229201622993.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); Incremental return on capital 0.6196551313689437, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,52419000],[2018,109873000],[2019,127111000],[2020,221376000],[2021,273365000],[2022,146628000],[2023,91730000],[2024,76453000],[2025,160977000],[2026,515417000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EVN.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.9289999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 30.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:56.683Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.14500124968616956. Price 12.23; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.0496261418123614 → FY2026 0.7255243168730054. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 2.26 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 1.93 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 2.12 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 2.13 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 2.16 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 2.10 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 2.29 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 2.41 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 2.41 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 2.22 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 2.42 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 2.21 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 2.36 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 2.44 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 2.65 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 2.85 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 2.86 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 3.03 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 3.21 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 3.26 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 3.51 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 2.79 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 2.65 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 2.65 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 2.98 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 3.14 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 3.69 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 4.01 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 3.61 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 3.66 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 3.19 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 3.87 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 4.36 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 5.02 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 5.18 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 4.53 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 4.13 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 3.91 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 3.80 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 3.71 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 4.04 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 3.82 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 5.11 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 6.10 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 5.67 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 5.90 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 5.55 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 5.75 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 5.54 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 4.97 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 4.99 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 4.73 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 4.20 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 4.08 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 4.63 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 5.41 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 4.50 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 4.18 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 3.91 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 3.49 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 3.63 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 4.03 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 4.06 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 3.50 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 4.27 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 4.40 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 4.05 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 3.84 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 2.38 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 2.64 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 2.39 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 2.05 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 2.08 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 2.69 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 2.98 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 3.20 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 2.72 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 3.12 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 3.56 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 3.44 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 3.22 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 3.70 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 3.71 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 3.29 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 3.57 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 4.09 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 3.96 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 3.21 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 2.95 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 3.58 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 4.06 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 3.92 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 3.50 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 3.93 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 4.24 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 4.64 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 5.24 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 5.06 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 4.81 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 5.70 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 6.09 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 7.11 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 7.83 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 8.85 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 7.79 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 7.11 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 8.66 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 10.83 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 10.86 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 11.88 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 12.68 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 14.71 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 16.58 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 12.62 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 11.90 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 12.14 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 11.75 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 11.27 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 14.88 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 13.35 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 12.96 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 0.72 per share, central AUD 1.02 per share, high AUD 1.20 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 1.14 per share, central AUD 1.55 per share, high AUD 1.80 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 1.99 per share, central AUD 2.76 per share, high AUD 3.21 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 2.52 per share, central AUD 3.51 per share, high AUD 4.09 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 2.21 per share, central AUD 3.13 per share, high AUD 3.67 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 2.64 per share, central AUD 3.65 per share, high AUD 4.24 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 2.51 per share, central AUD 3.58 per share, high AUD 4.21 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 3.48 per share, central AUD 4.90 per share, high AUD 5.72 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 4.84 per share, central AUD 6.77 per share, high AUD 7.89 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 6.35 per share, central AUD 8.81 per share, high AUD 10.24 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:39.637Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations