# Expand Energy (EXE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:24.964Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $90.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $176.62 per share, central $200.32 per share, high $231.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value $200.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:24.964Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 19.5% at the stated quote. About 19.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 4.97×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.56×

- FY2017: -0.01×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: -0.00×

- FY2020: -1.67×

- FY2021: 0.32×

- FY2022: 0.33×

- FY2023: 0.40×

- FY2024: -0.19×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -26.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 23.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -42.4%

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: 4.0%

- FY2019: -0.2%

- FY2020: 0.0%

- FY2021: 32.8%

- FY2022: 31.0%

- FY2023: 20.7%

- FY2024: -2.7%

- FY2025: 7.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $15B

- Net income, five-year total: $15B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 683.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.04×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.88×

- FY2024: 0.76×

- FY2025: 1.13×

### management: fail

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -1.2% vs 7.2%

- Per-share earnings: -1149.21 to 7.57 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Common shareholder capital was cancelled in a financial restructuring within the assessment period

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 53.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 89.7%

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 53.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 89.7%

- Per-share value change: $1K

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1K

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.57

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $77M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -1.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1K

- FY2017: -$111.48

- FY2018: $49.71

- FY2019: -$37.00

- FY2020: -$996.01

- FY2021: $53.66

- FY2022: $33.82

- FY2023: $16.92

- FY2024: -$4.55

- FY2025: $7.57

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -9.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.48×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.52×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -32.1%

- FY2017: -10.1%

- FY2018: -11.8%

- FY2019: -11.9%

- FY2020: -165.5%

- FY2021: 41.2%

- FY2022: 5.2%

- FY2023: 0.3%

- FY2024: -8.2%

- FY2025: -9.7%

## Holders

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 26% since Nov 2025 · "Gas producers Antero, EQT, Range, Expand Energy cut at Roth as gas oversupply returns" (seekingalpha.com, Aug 2025) · sales +176%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:43.708Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 9.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: Expand: 2%-Plus Gas OFS Deflation if Permian Cuts Rigs, Frac Crews ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expand-2-plus-gas-ofs-141200318.html))

- 2025-08-18: Gas producers Antero, EQT, Range, Expand Energy cut at Roth as gas oversupply returns ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4486703-gas-producers-antero-eqt-range-expand-energy-cut-at-roth-as-gas-oversupply-returns?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-28: Expand Energy Soars 21% After New Project Partnerships: What Does the Valuation Say? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expand-energy-soars-21-project-223001971.html))

- 2026-06-01: Expand Energy Weighs New 20 Year LNG Deal Against Earnings Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/expand-energy-weighs-20-lng-020342594.html))

- 2026-07-30: Expand Energy Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Production ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/expand-energy-q2-earnings-beat-163000503.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +176%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000011/exe-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: $7.9B 

- FY2017: $9.5B 

- FY2018: $10B 

- FY2019: $8.5B 

- FY2020: $5.2B 

- FY2021: $7.3B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $7.8B 

- FY2024: $4.2B 

- FY2025: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 46.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000011/exe-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2017: 11.4% 

- FY2018: 12.5% 

- FY2019: 4.7% 

- FY2020: 11.9% 

- FY2021: 33.1% 

- FY2022: 71.3% 

- FY2023: 64.8% 

- FY2024: 27.0% 

- FY2025: 46.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 11.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 11648000000; grossProfit 5418000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27% to 64.8% during 2023–25; it earns 2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 64.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.42351604278074867],[2017,-0.011542615140285865],[2018,0.03978752213311113],[2019,-0.001784335154826958],[2020,0],[2021,0.32829709121717027],[2022,0.3096837620842209],[2023,0.2070477768761801],[2024,-0.027494040653577776],[2025,0.07159840325236154]]; median 0.019893761066555566. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back USD 100 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 260000000; upkeep 1737000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 226000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.1504424778761062.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 735000000; owner earnings 6588000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 70000000; upkeep 1753000000; cash acquisitions 1967000000; owner earnings 4936000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.41268233387358183.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1829000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2117000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2736000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2063000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,183000000],[2018,92000000],[2019,91000000],[2020,22000000],[2021,119000000],[2022,1212000000],[2023,487000000],[2024,388000000],[2025,765000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EXE.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 100000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.36 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"If commodity prices fall or drilling efforts are unsuccessful" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000011/exe-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); If commodity prices fall or drilling efforts are unsuccessful

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 9.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.145417052350236. Price 90.8; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -4866.767371601209 → FY2025 8.582601822190789. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-02: $44.18 per share

- 2021-03: $43.39 per share

- 2021-04: $45.57 per share

- 2021-05: $52.80 per share

- 2021-06: $51.92 per share

- 2021-07: $54.05 per share

- 2021-08: $55.81 per share

- 2021-09: $61.59 per share

- 2021-10: $63.74 per share

- 2021-11: $59.54 per share

- 2021-12: $64.52 per share

- 2022-01: $68.17 per share

- 2022-02: $77.25 per share

- 2022-03: $87.00 per share

- 2022-04: $82.02 per share

- 2022-05: $97.38 per share

- 2022-06: $81.10 per share

- 2022-07: $94.17 per share

- 2022-08: $100.49 per share

- 2022-09: $94.21 per share

- 2022-10: $102.27 per share

- 2022-11: $103.50 per share

- 2022-12: $94.37 per share

- 2023-01: $86.72 per share

- 2023-02: $80.81 per share

- 2023-03: $76.04 per share

- 2023-04: $82.68 per share

- 2023-05: $75.25 per share

- 2023-06: $83.68 per share

- 2023-07: $84.34 per share

- 2023-08: $88.21 per share

- 2023-09: $86.23 per share

- 2023-10: $86.08 per share

- 2023-11: $80.31 per share

- 2023-12: $76.94 per share

- 2024-01: $77.11 per share

- 2024-02: $82.78 per share

- 2024-03: $88.83 per share

- 2024-04: $89.88 per share

- 2024-05: $90.93 per share

- 2024-06: $82.19 per share

- 2024-07: $76.33 per share

- 2024-08: $74.49 per share

- 2024-09: $82.25 per share

- 2024-10: $84.72 per share

- 2024-11: $98.96 per share

- 2024-12: $99.55 per share

- 2025-01: $101.60 per share

- 2025-02: $98.88 per share

- 2025-03: $111.32 per share

- 2025-04: $103.90 per share

- 2025-05: $116.13 per share

- 2025-06: $116.94 per share

- 2025-07: $104.78 per share

- 2025-08: $96.78 per share

- 2025-09: $106.24 per share

- 2025-10: $103.31 per share

- 2025-11: $121.93 per share

- 2025-12: $110.36 per share

- 2026-01: $112.41 per share

- 2026-02: $107.92 per share

- 2026-03: $109.78 per share

- 2026-04: $102.15 per share

- 2026-05: $92.98 per share

- 2026-06: $91.19 per share

- 2026-07: $94.03 per share

- 2026-08: $98.16 per share

- 2026-09: $84.09 per share

- 2026-10: $90.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2022: low $18.93 per share, central $21.54 per share, high $25.01 per share

- FY2023: low $168.30 per share, central $190.61 per share, high $220.32 per share

- FY2024: low $81.50 per share, central $92.53 per share, high $107.22 per share

- FY2025: low $147.24 per share, central $167.13 per share, high $193.60 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000011/exe-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): 5,237,477 EXE shares; USD 477,606,000 reported position value; 12.64% of portfolio; hold; quarter 2026 Q2.

# EXE — Expand Energy Corp.

Held by 1 investor · USD 477,606,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 91.19 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXE

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Howard Marks (https://gigainvestors.com/oc) | USD 477,606,000 | 13% | hold |

## Total held by quarter

- 2008 Q2: USD 125,324,000 · 1 holder · USD 13192.00
- 2008 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2008 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2009 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2009 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2009 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2009 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2010 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2010 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2010 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2010 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2011 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2011 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2011 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2011 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2012 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2012 Q2: USD 18,693,000 · 1 holder · USD 3720.00
- 2012 Q3: USD 56,305,052 · 1 holder · USD 3774.05
- 2012 Q4: USD 52,452,078 · 1 holder · USD 3324.17
- 2013 Q1: USD 65,602,947 · 1 holder · USD 4082.07
- 2013 Q2: USD 1,353,026,407 · 3 holders · USD 4076.19
- 2013 Q3: USD 1,804,305,925 · 2 holders · USD 5176.25
- 2013 Q4: USD 1,892,149,951 · 2 holders · USD 5428.21
- 2014 Q1: USD 1,786,034,950 · 2 holders · USD 5124.20
- 2014 Q2: USD 2,086,027,006 · 2 holders · USD 6216.00
- 2014 Q3: USD 1,527,685,500 · 1 holder · USD 4598.00
- 2014 Q4: USD 1,300,426,500 · 1 holder · USD 3914.00
- 2015 Q1: USD 1,034,388,000 · 1 holder · USD 2832.00
- 2015 Q2: USD 815,968,500 · 1 holder · USD 2234.00
- 2015 Q3: USD 535,456,500 · 1 holder · USD 1466.00
- 2015 Q4: USD 328,725,000 · 1 holder · USD 900.00
- 2016 Q1: USD 300,966,000 · 1 holder · USD 824.00
- 2016 Q2: USD 312,654,000 · 1 holder · USD 856.00
- 2016 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2016 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q2: USD 17,723,020 · 1 holder · USD 994.00
- 2017 Q3: USD 3,364,992 · 2 holders · USD 865.85
- 2017 Q4: USD 153,999 · 1 holder · USD 793.81
- 2018 Q1: USD 131,001 · 1 holder · USD 603.69
- 2018 Q2: USD 238,000 · 1 holder · USD 1048.46
- 2018 Q3: USD 131,000 · 1 holder · USD 903.45
- 2018 Q4: USD 43,000 · 1 holder · USD 425.74
- 2019 Q1: USD 58,000 · 1 holder · USD 623.66
- 2019 Q2: USD 47,000 · 1 holder · USD 391.67
- 2019 Q3: USD 21,000 · 1 holder · USD 276.32
- 2019 Q4: USD 33,000 · 1 holder · USD 165.00
- 2020 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q1: USD 679,825,929 · 2 holders · USD 43.39
- 2021 Q2: USD 647,183,839 · 2 holders · USD 51.92
- 2021 Q3: USD 761,444,376 · 2 holders · USD 61.59
- 2021 Q4: USD 800,122,392 · 2 holders · USD 64.52
- 2022 Q1: USD 967,714,311 · 2 holders · USD 87.00
- 2022 Q2: USD 862,997,508 · 3 holders · USD 81.10
- 2022 Q3: USD 940,002,983 · 5 holders · USD 94.21
- 2022 Q4: USD 878,031,125 · 4 holders · USD 94.37
- 2023 Q1: USD 712,527,610 · 4 holders · USD 76.04
- 2023 Q2: USD 676,387,785 · 4 holders · USD 83.68
- 2023 Q3: USD 651,123,764 · 4 holders · USD 86.23
- 2023 Q4: USD 575,263,299 · 3 holders · USD 76.94
- 2024 Q1: USD 662,713,462 · 3 holders · USD 88.83
- 2024 Q2: USD 600,161,325 · 3 holders · USD 82.19
- 2024 Q3: USD 598,168,718 · 3 holders · USD 82.25
- 2024 Q4: USD 743,566,326 · 3 holders · USD 99.55
- 2025 Q1: USD 619,202,360 · 1 holder · USD 111.32
- 2025 Q2: USD 591,992,846 · 1 holder · USD 116.94
- 2025 Q3: USD 537,825,445 · 1 holder · USD 106.24
- 2025 Q4: USD 558,682,381 · 1 holder · USD 110.36
- 2026 Q1: USD 574,970,225 · 1 holder · USD 109.78
- 2026 Q2: USD 477,606,000 · 1 holder · USD 91.19