# Experian (EXPN.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EXPN.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:13.908Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 2,855.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 1,637.37 per share, central GBX 1,860.87 per share, high GBX 2,158.41 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,860.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:13.908Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.03×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.25×

- FY2018: 0.25×

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.23×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.23×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.25×

- FY2026: 0.24×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 50.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 46.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 39.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 59.3%

- FY2018: 67.4%

- FY2019: 66.2%

- FY2020: 46.1%

- FY2021: 50.4%

- FY2022: 52.0%

- FY2023: 48.3%

- FY2024: 51.4%

- FY2025: 47.6%

- FY2026: 45.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.28×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -11.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.58×

- FY2026: 1.52×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 66.2% vs 47.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.90 to 1.30 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: $12B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 4.7%

- Per-share value change: $0.40

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.90

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.30

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.58

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $5.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 66.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 47.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.90

- FY2018: $0.92

- FY2019: $0.76

- FY2020: $0.73

- FY2021: $0.92

- FY2022: $1.21

- FY2023: $0.86

- FY2024: $1.30

- FY2025: $1.29

- FY2026: $1.64

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.28×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.47×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.86×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -6.8%

- FY2018: -4.3%

- FY2019: -6.8%

- FY2020: -6.5%

- FY2021: -6.3%

- FY2022: -6.2%

- FY2023: -8.5%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: -6.4%

- FY2026: -4.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 29% since Jan 2025 · sales +10.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:59.707Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: $4.2B 

- FY2018: $4.9B 

- FY2019: $4.9B 

- FY2020: $5.2B 

- FY2021: $5.7B 

- FY2022: $6.0B 

- FY2023: $6.8B 

- FY2024: $7.1B 

- FY2025: $7.6B 

- FY2026: $8.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 55.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: 41.0% 

- FY2018: 40.5% 

- FY2019: 40.8% 

- FY2020: 49.3% 

- FY2021: 36.4% 

- FY2022: 36.8% 

- FY2023: 38.3% 

- FY2024: 38.3% 

- FY2025: 38.6% 

- FY2026: 55.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in consulting services; annual sales are USD 8.4 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: revenue 8445000000; grossProfit 4685000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXPN.LSE: Experian plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a data and technology company in North America, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments: Business-to-Business and Consumer Services. The company provides data, software, and AI-enabled analytics integrate directly into client workflows to support decisioning, risk management, fraud prevention and customer engagement at scale; credit information, affordability insights, identity protection and personalized offers. It serves its customers in financial service, health, automotive, and marketing services. The company was formerly known as Experian Group Limited and changed its name to Experian plc in July 2008. Experian plc was founded in 1826 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.3% to 55.5% during 2024–26; it earns 50.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.6%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 55.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.5934465959735479],[2018,0.67443698781713],[2019,0.6622367153067908],[2020,0.4612073709262494],[2021,0.5036188347305844],[2022,0.5195599634055295],[2023,0.4825355490436792],[2024,0.5136571576021549],[2025,0.4755758946674495],[2026,0.4529340929450895]]; median 0.5086379961663696. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 37% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3639240505950489],[2022,0.3684796436839388],[2023,0.3828372864174599]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 722.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 399000000; owner earnings 856448624. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 431000000; owner earnings 845110977. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 439000000; owner earnings 689351764. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 487000000; owner earnings 684800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 422000000; owner earnings 978156680. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 508000000; owner earnings 1232902800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 627000000; owner earnings 808533848. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 640000000; owner earnings 1241596391. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 48000000; owner earnings 1865289521. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 48215691; owner earnings 2289162879. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Dividend observations: [[2017,383000000],[2018,392000000],[2019,411000000],[2020,426000000],[2021,428000000],[2022,446000000],[2023,483000000],[2024,510000000],[2025,546000000],[2026,582524330]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: cash repurchases 722251450 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); EXPN.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.22399999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 10.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07736311639121163. Price 2855; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.8874252976694915 → FY2026 2.493804474148637. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 1,573.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 1,510.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 1,574.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 1,529.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 1,597.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 1,628.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,659.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,618.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,575.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,507.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,554.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,499.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 1,586.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,538.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,636.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,623.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,556.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,537.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,667.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,841.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,874.50 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,874.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 1,920.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,970.50 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 1,802.50 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,906.50 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,905.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,912.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 1,963.50 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 2,079.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 2,225.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 2,387.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 2,384.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 2,500.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 2,518.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 2,599.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 2,428.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 2,563.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,552.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 2,637.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 2,591.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 2,251.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 2,376.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 2,813.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 2,819.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 2,677.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 2,790.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 2,920.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 2,817.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 2,646.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 2,777.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,556.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,273.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,497.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,792.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 2,703.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,786.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 3,168.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 3,204.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 3,109.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 3,347.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 3,380.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 3,632.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 3,081.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 2,933.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 2,951.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 2,792.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,656.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 2,406.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 2,863.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 2,623.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 2,661.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 2,774.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 2,905.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 2,813.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 2,953.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 2,805.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 2,660.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 2,810.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 2,832.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 3,018.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 3,009.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 2,762.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 2,691.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 2,491.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 2,903.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 3,202.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 3,296.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 3,385.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 3,454.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 3,244.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 3,607.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 3,686.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 3,672.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 3,684.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 3,931.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 3,777.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 3,751.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 3,445.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 4,007.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 3,764.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 3,568.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 3,715.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 3,693.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 3,752.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 4,004.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 3,832.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 3,722.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 3,547.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 3,323.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 3,363.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 2,758.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 2,786.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 2,598.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 2,689.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 2,573.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 2,543.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 2,790.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 3,044.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 2,465.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 2,728.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 698.36 per share, central GBX 794.43 per share, high GBX 922.31 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 827.51 per share, central GBX 940.89 per share, high GBX 1,091.82 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 827.56 per share, central GBX 940.97 per share, high GBX 1,091.94 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 820.38 per share, central GBX 931.35 per share, high GBX 1,079.07 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 880.81 per share, central GBX 1,001.28 per share, high GBX 1,161.65 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 932.59 per share, central GBX 1,060.44 per share, high GBX 1,230.64 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 867.59 per share, central GBX 986.39 per share, high GBX 1,144.54 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 1,106.99 per share, central GBX 1,257.60 per share, high GBX 1,458.10 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 1,216.65 per share, central GBX 1,381.56 per share, high GBX 1,601.10 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 1,562.72 per share, central GBX 1,776.03 per share, high GBX 2,060.00 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31/reports/635400RXXHHYT1JTSZ26-2026-03-31-T01.html); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations