# National Vision Holdings (EYE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EYE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:26.814Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $17.66 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $5.24 per share, central $6.44 per share, high $7.51 per share. Buy at or below the central value $6.44 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:26.814Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.5% at the stated quote. About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.84×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.06×

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: -0.02×

- FY2024: -0.01×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -1.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 54.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.4%

- FY2017: 15.6%

- FY2018: 8.0%

- FY2019: 8.1%

- FY2020: 10.2%

- FY2021: 18.4%

- FY2022: 4.1%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -1.0%

- FY2025: 5.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.22×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $129M

- Net income, five-year total: $106M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 15.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.05×

- FY2022: 0.68×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.87×

- FY2025: 1.91×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.4% vs -1.0%

- Per-share earnings: 0.26 to -0.36 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: -$981M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $219M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$0.62

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.26

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.36

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.31

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.6M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $259M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -1.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.26

- FY2017: $0.74

- FY2018: $0.30

- FY2019: $0.40

- FY2020: $0.44

- FY2021: $1.33

- FY2022: $0.52

- FY2023: -$0.84

- FY2024: -$0.36

- FY2025: $0.37

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -5.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 16.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.94×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.4%

- FY2017: -2.8%

- FY2018: -5.0%

- FY2019: -6.5%

- FY2020: -8.5%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -3.4%

- FY2023: -11.0%

- FY2024: -8.1%

- FY2025: -5.5%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 71% since Oct 2021 · "Meanwhile, a weak solvency position and escalating expenses pose concerns for National Vision’s operations." (finance.yahoo.com, Jun 2025) · sales +9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:44.213Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710155/000162828026014379/eye-20260103.htm; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: $1.2B 

- FY2017: $1.4B 

- FY2018: $1.5B 

- FY2019: $1.7B 

- FY2020: $1.7B 

- FY2021: $2.1B 

- FY2022: $1.6B 

- FY2023: $2.1B 

- FY2024: $1.8B 

- FY2025: $2.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 54.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710155/000162828026014379/eye-20260103.htm; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: 54.5% 

- FY2017: 53.7% 

- FY2018: 53.6% 

- FY2019: 53.2% 

- FY2020: 54.0% 

- FY2021: 56.5% 

- FY2022: 59.4% 

- FY2023: 52.9% 

- FY2024: 58.1% 

- FY2025: 54.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty retail; annual sales are USD 2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710155/000162828026014379/eye-20260103.htm (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: revenue 1987488000; grossProfit 1076867000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); EYE.US: National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; and provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, Vista Optical military, and DiscountContacts.com. It also offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. In addition, the company sells prescription and non-prescription eyewear, contact lenses and related accessories to retail customers. The company serves a diverse customer base, including price-driven consumers, style leaders, wellness shoppers with vision benefits, managed care customers, outside prescription customers, and progressive lens wearers. The company was formerly known as National Vision, Inc. and changed its name to National Vision Holdings, Inc. in March 2014. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 52.9% to 58.1% during 2023–25; it earns 8.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 52.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 58.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710155/000162828026014379/eye-20260103.htm (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 54.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.12433896585905622],[2017,0.15568429680879145],[2018,0.08043553818366218],[2019,0.08059657348172816],[2020,0.10204393661147709],[2021,0.18415898950901388],[2022,0.04134670171475435],[2023,-0.041793199440084146],[2024,-0.009514597534504267],[2025,0.052749607107754996]]; median 0.08051605583269517. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 6 of 10 years; bought back USD 3.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2016: growth capex 27359272.510750063; upkeep 62666727.48924994; owner earnings 4084272.5107500628. Growth capex / owner earnings = 6.698689286461354.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2017: growth capex 31245000; upkeep 61974000; owner earnings 45820000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6819074639895242.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2018: growth capex 30154000; upkeep 74339000; owner earnings 23653000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.2748488563818543.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2019: growth capex 14081000; upkeep 87244000; owner earnings 32798000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4293249588389536.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 76823000; owner earnings 51039000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 95515000; owner earnings 134532000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 113547000; owner earnings 28531000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710155/000162828026014379/eye-20260103.htm (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 72840000; owner earnings 56653000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,170983000],[2018,200000000],[2019,566550000],[2020,13105000],[2021,0],[2022,84392000],[2023,3312000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710155/000162828026014379/eye-20260103.htm (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: cash repurchases 3205000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); EYE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.685 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21223602599948455. Price 17.66; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.07421276540755557 → FY2025 0.7031001787132645. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2017-10: $28.80 per share

- 2017-11: $32.59 per share

- 2017-12: $40.61 per share

- 2018-01: $39.12 per share

- 2018-02: $34.56 per share

- 2018-03: $32.31 per share

- 2018-04: $33.28 per share

- 2018-05: $36.40 per share

- 2018-06: $36.57 per share

- 2018-07: $40.66 per share

- 2018-08: $44.25 per share

- 2018-09: $45.14 per share

- 2018-10: $41.43 per share

- 2018-11: $36.77 per share

- 2018-12: $28.17 per share

- 2019-01: $31.76 per share

- 2019-02: $33.60 per share

- 2019-03: $31.43 per share

- 2019-04: $27.00 per share

- 2019-05: $27.23 per share

- 2019-06: $30.73 per share

- 2019-07: $31.59 per share

- 2019-08: $28.36 per share

- 2019-09: $24.07 per share

- 2019-10: $23.80 per share

- 2019-11: $30.20 per share

- 2019-12: $32.43 per share

- 2020-01: $34.12 per share

- 2020-02: $34.82 per share

- 2020-03: $19.42 per share

- 2020-04: $26.50 per share

- 2020-05: $26.78 per share

- 2020-06: $30.52 per share

- 2020-07: $31.99 per share

- 2020-08: $37.57 per share

- 2020-09: $38.24 per share

- 2020-10: $40.33 per share

- 2020-11: $42.81 per share

- 2020-12: $45.29 per share

- 2021-01: $46.37 per share

- 2021-02: $47.49 per share

- 2021-03: $43.83 per share

- 2021-04: $50.41 per share

- 2021-05: $49.67 per share

- 2021-06: $51.13 per share

- 2021-07: $53.98 per share

- 2021-08: $59.98 per share

- 2021-09: $56.77 per share

- 2021-10: $61.64 per share

- 2021-11: $48.04 per share

- 2021-12: $47.99 per share

- 2022-01: $40.88 per share

- 2022-02: $36.67 per share

- 2022-03: $43.57 per share

- 2022-04: $37.65 per share

- 2022-05: $28.14 per share

- 2022-06: $27.50 per share

- 2022-07: $29.14 per share

- 2022-08: $33.23 per share

- 2022-09: $32.65 per share

- 2022-10: $37.04 per share

- 2022-11: $40.46 per share

- 2022-12: $38.76 per share

- 2023-01: $41.10 per share

- 2023-02: $37.36 per share

- 2023-03: $18.84 per share

- 2023-04: $21.04 per share

- 2023-05: $25.25 per share

- 2023-06: $24.29 per share

- 2023-07: $21.63 per share

- 2023-08: $18.31 per share

- 2023-09: $16.18 per share

- 2023-10: $15.54 per share

- 2023-11: $18.45 per share

- 2023-12: $20.93 per share

- 2024-01: $19.01 per share

- 2024-02: $23.40 per share

- 2024-03: $22.16 per share

- 2024-04: $17.42 per share

- 2024-05: $15.09 per share

- 2024-06: $13.09 per share

- 2024-07: $14.46 per share

- 2024-08: $10.56 per share

- 2024-09: $10.91 per share

- 2024-10: $10.40 per share

- 2024-11: $12.10 per share

- 2024-12: $10.42 per share

- 2025-01: $11.40 per share

- 2025-02: $12.71 per share

- 2025-03: $12.78 per share

- 2025-04: $12.35 per share

- 2025-05: $19.81 per share

- 2025-06: $23.01 per share

- 2025-07: $24.26 per share

- 2025-08: $22.94 per share

- 2025-09: $29.19 per share

- 2025-10: $25.75 per share

- 2025-11: $28.85 per share

- 2025-12: $25.82 per share

- 2026-01: $26.35 per share

- 2026-02: $26.97 per share

- 2026-03: $25.90 per share

- 2026-04: $23.22 per share

- 2026-05: $16.75 per share

- 2026-06: $19.01 per share

- 2026-07: $22.04 per share

- 2026-08: $17.08 per share

- 2026-09: $16.38 per share

- 2026-10: $17.66 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $0.73 per share, central $0.83 per share, high $0.96 per share

- FY2019: low $3.61 per share, central $4.10 per share, high $4.75 per share

- FY2020: low $8.40 per share, central $8.99 per share, high $9.78 per share

- FY2021: low $9.80 per share, central $10.77 per share, high $12.06 per share

- FY2022: low $6.71 per share, central $7.29 per share, high $8.07 per share

- FY2023: low $6.99 per share, central $7.77 per share, high $8.80 per share

- FY2024: low $4.88 per share, central $5.48 per share, high $6.29 per share

- FY2025: low $5.03 per share, central $6.17 per share, high $7.20 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710155/000162828026014379/eye-20260103.htm); period 2026-01-03, filed 2026-03-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): 429,618 EYE shares; USD 8,167,038 reported position value; 0.01% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.

# EYE — National Vision Holdings Inc.

Held by 1 investor · USD 8,167,038 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 19.01 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/EYE

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Matthew McLennan (https://gigainvestors.com/FE) | USD 8,167,038 | <0.1% | add +93.91% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2024 Q1: USD 4,594,920 · 1 holder · USD 22.16
- 2024 Q2: USD 5,802,823 · 1 holder · USD 13.09
- 2024 Q3: USD 5,911,060 · 1 holder · USD 10.91
- 2024 Q4: USD 5,723,727 · 1 holder · USD 10.42
- 2025 Q1: USD 7,160,660 · 1 holder · USD 12.78
- 2025 Q2: USD 13,072,027 · 1 holder · USD 23.01
- 2025 Q3: USD 17,121,453 · 1 holder · USD 29.19
- 2025 Q4: USD 11,659,073 · 1 holder · USD 25.82
- 2026 Q1: USD 5,738,197 · 1 holder · USD 25.90
- 2026 Q2: USD 8,167,038 · 1 holder · USD 19.01