# Ford Motor (F.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/F

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:57.082Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $12.31 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $19.67 per share, central $21.43 per share, high $23.76 per share. Buy at or below the central value $21.43 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:57.082Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 22.7% at the stated quote. About 22.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.00×

- FY2020: -0.04×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 12.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.8%

- FY2017: 2.8%

- FY2018: 1.7%

- FY2019: 0.3%

- FY2020: -2.5%

- FY2021: 3.7%

- FY2022: 3.6%

- FY2023: 3.6%

- FY2024: 2.5%

- FY2025: 1.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.89×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $16B

- Net income, five-year total: $18B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -31.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 29.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.24×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1.8% vs 2.5%

- Per-share earnings: 1.84 to 1.08 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: $3.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $6.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -6.5%

- Per-share value change: -$0.77

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.84

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.08

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.39

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $33B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 1.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.15

- FY2017: $1.93

- FY2018: $0.92

- FY2019: $0.01

- FY2020: -$0.32

- FY2021: $4.45

- FY2022: -$0.49

- FY2023: $1.08

- FY2024: $1.46

- FY2025: -$2.06

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.4%

- FY2017: -4.0%

- FY2018: -4.4%

- FY2019: -6.8%

- FY2020: -9.6%

- FY2021: 0.8%

- FY2022: -3.5%

- FY2023: -3.9%

- FY2024: -3.3%

- FY2025: -10.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 41% since Dec 2021 · "Ford Motor's Third-Quarter US Vehicle Sales Fall Amid Model Phase-Outs" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales +1.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.400Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 11.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-13: F Q2 Deep Dive: Cost Controls and Product Strategy Offset Margin Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/f-q2-deep-dive-cost-033630239.html))

- 2025-10-24: Ford Stock Soars as Strong Results Outweigh Outlook Cut ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-stock-soars-strong-results-154336740.html))

- 2026-03-07: Ford Reports 5.5% Decline In February US Sales Amid EV Pullback ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-reports-5-5-decline-203051872.html))

- 2026-05-13: Stock Market Today, May 13: Ford Jumps After Launching Ford Energy Battery Storage Subsidiary ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-today-may-13-214236271.html))

- 2026-07-29: Ford Stock Jumps Nearly 6% After Second Profit Forecast Raise ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ford-stock-jumps-nearly-6-182121192.html))

- 2026-09-27: Ford (F) Halts F-150 Production at Dearborn Over a Supplier Problem ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ford-f-halts-f-150-191444049.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/37996/000003799626000015/f-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: $152B 

- FY2017: $157B 

- FY2018: $160B 

- FY2019: $156B 

- FY2020: $127B 

- FY2021: $136B 

- FY2022: $158B 

- FY2023: $176B 

- FY2024: $185B 

- FY2025: $187B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 12.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/37996/000003799626000015/f-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 15.2% 

- FY2017: 15.3% 

- FY2018: 14.2% 

- FY2019: 12.3% 

- FY2020: 10.0% 

- FY2021: 18.0% 

- FY2022: 15.9% 

- FY2023: 14.6% 

- FY2024: 12.7% 

- FY2025: 12.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto manufacturers; annual sales are USD 187.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/37996/000003799626000015/f-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 187267000000; grossProfit 22813000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); F.US: Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 12.2% to 14.6% during 2023–25; it earns 2.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 14.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/37996/000003799626000015/f-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 12.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.01820610129053199],[2017,0.02788607516727451],[2018,0.01719566413095723],[2019,0.002798544300121954],[2020,-0.02520286612438924],[2021,0.03652606827682304],[2022,0.03641398703998044],[2023,0.03566714153150445],[2024,0.024907130875358393],[2025,0.01215569262556592]]; median 0.021556616082945193. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 6992000000; owner earnings 6321000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 7049000000; owner earnings 9135000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 7785000000; owner earnings 4200000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 7632000000; owner earnings 905000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 5742000000; owner earnings 436000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 267000000; upkeep 5960000000; owner earnings 17937000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.014885432346546245.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 1713000000; upkeep 6523000000; owner earnings 4347000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3940648723257419.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 2817000000; upkeep 5867000000; owner earnings 5879000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.47916312298009867.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,3376000000],[2017,2584000000],[2018,2905000000],[2019,2389000000],[2020,596000000],[2021,403000000],[2022,2009000000],[2023,4995000000],[2024,3118000000],[2025,2989000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); F.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.395 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Pension and other postretirement liabilities could adversely affect Ford’s liquidity and financial condition." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/37996/000003799626000015/f-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Pension and other postretirement liabilities could adversely affect Ford’s liquidity and financial condition.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 11.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.17583508033924639. Price 12.31; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.0347326336831584 → FY2025 -2.547653190861628. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $11.74 per share

- 2016-11: $11.96 per share

- 2016-12: $12.13 per share

- 2017-01: $12.36 per share

- 2017-02: $12.53 per share

- 2017-03: $11.64 per share

- 2017-04: $11.47 per share

- 2017-05: $11.12 per share

- 2017-06: $11.19 per share

- 2017-07: $11.22 per share

- 2017-08: $11.03 per share

- 2017-09: $11.97 per share

- 2017-10: $12.27 per share

- 2017-11: $12.52 per share

- 2017-12: $12.49 per share

- 2018-01: $10.97 per share

- 2018-02: $10.61 per share

- 2018-03: $11.08 per share

- 2018-04: $11.24 per share

- 2018-05: $11.55 per share

- 2018-06: $11.07 per share

- 2018-07: $10.04 per share

- 2018-08: $9.48 per share

- 2018-09: $9.25 per share

- 2018-10: $9.55 per share

- 2018-11: $9.41 per share

- 2018-12: $7.65 per share

- 2019-01: $8.80 per share

- 2019-02: $8.77 per share

- 2019-03: $8.78 per share

- 2019-04: $10.45 per share

- 2019-05: $9.52 per share

- 2019-06: $10.23 per share

- 2019-07: $9.53 per share

- 2019-08: $9.17 per share

- 2019-09: $9.16 per share

- 2019-10: $8.59 per share

- 2019-11: $9.06 per share

- 2019-12: $9.30 per share

- 2020-01: $8.82 per share

- 2020-02: $6.96 per share

- 2020-03: $4.83 per share

- 2020-04: $5.09 per share

- 2020-05: $5.71 per share

- 2020-06: $6.08 per share

- 2020-07: $6.61 per share

- 2020-08: $6.82 per share

- 2020-09: $6.66 per share

- 2020-10: $7.73 per share

- 2020-11: $9.08 per share

- 2020-12: $8.79 per share

- 2021-01: $10.53 per share

- 2021-02: $11.70 per share

- 2021-03: $12.25 per share

- 2021-04: $11.54 per share

- 2021-05: $14.53 per share

- 2021-06: $14.86 per share

- 2021-07: $13.95 per share

- 2021-08: $13.03 per share

- 2021-09: $14.16 per share

- 2021-10: $17.08 per share

- 2021-11: $19.19 per share

- 2021-12: $20.77 per share

- 2022-01: $20.30 per share

- 2022-02: $17.56 per share

- 2022-03: $16.91 per share

- 2022-04: $14.16 per share

- 2022-05: $13.68 per share

- 2022-06: $11.13 per share

- 2022-07: $14.69 per share

- 2022-08: $15.24 per share

- 2022-09: $11.20 per share

- 2022-10: $13.37 per share

- 2022-11: $13.90 per share

- 2022-12: $11.63 per share

- 2023-01: $13.51 per share

- 2023-02: $12.07 per share

- 2023-03: $12.60 per share

- 2023-04: $11.88 per share

- 2023-05: $12.00 per share

- 2023-06: $15.13 per share

- 2023-07: $13.21 per share

- 2023-08: $12.13 per share

- 2023-09: $12.42 per share

- 2023-10: $9.75 per share

- 2023-11: $10.26 per share

- 2023-12: $12.19 per share

- 2024-01: $11.72 per share

- 2024-02: $12.44 per share

- 2024-03: $13.28 per share

- 2024-04: $12.15 per share

- 2024-05: $12.13 per share

- 2024-06: $12.54 per share

- 2024-07: $10.82 per share

- 2024-08: $11.19 per share

- 2024-09: $10.56 per share

- 2024-10: $10.29 per share

- 2024-11: $11.13 per share

- 2024-12: $9.90 per share

- 2025-01: $10.08 per share

- 2025-02: $9.55 per share

- 2025-03: $10.03 per share

- 2025-04: $10.01 per share

- 2025-05: $10.38 per share

- 2025-06: $10.85 per share

- 2025-07: $11.07 per share

- 2025-08: $11.77 per share

- 2025-09: $11.96 per share

- 2025-10: $13.13 per share

- 2025-11: $13.28 per share

- 2025-12: $13.12 per share

- 2026-01: $13.88 per share

- 2026-02: $14.09 per share

- 2026-03: $11.54 per share

- 2026-04: $12.08 per share

- 2026-05: $17.44 per share

- 2026-06: $13.90 per share

- 2026-07: $14.68 per share

- 2026-08: $13.94 per share

- 2026-09: $12.06 per share

- 2026-10: $12.10 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $26.57 per share, central $29.00 per share, high $32.24 per share

- FY2017: low $29.83 per share, central $32.70 per share, high $36.54 per share

- FY2018: low $25.94 per share, central $28.46 per share, high $31.81 per share

- FY2019: low $25.60 per share, central $28.04 per share, high $31.29 per share

- FY2020: low $21.10 per share, central $22.36 per share, high $24.04 per share

- FY2021: low $21.29 per share, central $22.63 per share, high $24.40 per share

- FY2022: low $12.69 per share, central $13.03 per share, high $13.49 per share

- FY2023: low $11.84 per share, central $12.22 per share, high $12.72 per share

- FY2024: low $21.02 per share, central $22.73 per share, high $25.01 per share

- FY2025: low $21.42 per share, central $23.17 per share, high $25.50 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/37996/000003799626000015/f-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations



# F — Ford Motor

Held by 1 investor · USD 235,622,061 total · 2024 Q2 · reported price USD 12.54 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/F

## Holders (2024 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Andreas Halvorsen (https://gigainvestors.com/vg) | USD 235,622,061 | 0.9% | new |

## Total held by quarter

- 2019 Q1: USD 284,803,427 · 1 holder · USD 8.78
- 2019 Q2: USD 331,933,322 · 1 holder · USD 10.23
- 2019 Q3: USD 317,480,287 · 1 holder · USD 9.16
- 2019 Q4: USD 317,973,752 · 1 holder · USD 9.30
- 2020 Q1: USD 165,404,925 · 1 holder · USD 4.83
- 2020 Q2: USD 159,931,293 · 1 holder · USD 6.08
- 2020 Q3: USD 127,618,321 · 1 holder · USD 6.66
- 2020 Q4: USD 171,040,654 · 1 holder · USD 8.79
- 2021 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q4: USD 143,013 · 1 holder · USD 11.58
- 2023 Q1: USD 70,459,838 · 2 holders · USD 12.60
- 2023 Q2: USD 235,938 · 1 holder · USD 15.10
- 2023 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q2: USD 235,622,061 · 1 holder · USD 12.54
- 2024 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders