# Ferrovial SE (FER.AS) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FER.AS Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:06.969Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025. Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: EUR 48.03 per share; derived reference as of 2026-10-16. Estimated value: low EUR 22.07 per share, central EUR 24.56 per share, high EUR 27.89 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 24.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:06.969Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; NL 10-year bond 3.5% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: fail - 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational) - operating margin variation exceeds 0.35 - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 1 - Years with a net loss: 2 - Operating margin variation: 0.58× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 0.13× - FY2017: 0.08× - FY2018: 0.06× - FY2019: -0.01× - FY2020: 0.03× - FY2021: 0.05× - FY2022: 0.05× - FY2023: 0.08× - FY2024: 0.09× - FY2025: 0.10× ### moat: fail - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: 4.4% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.2% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.6 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.3% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.9% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 2.2% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.8% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 11.1% - FY2017: 4.8% - FY2018: 4.0% - FY2019: -0.7% - FY2020: 2.2% - FY2021: 3.8% - FY2022: 3.1% - FY2023: 6.0% - FY2024: 6.7% - FY2025: 8.1% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.22× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 6.6B - Net income, five-year total: EUR 5.5B - Return on incremental invested capital: >100% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.5 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.0% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: 1.20× - FY2022: 2.61× - FY2023: 1.68× - FY2024: 1.07× - FY2025: 1.34× ### management: pass - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.8% vs 6.7% - Per-share earnings: 0.62 to 1.24 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4% - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4% - Per-share value growth: 9.1% - Per-share value change: EUR 0.62 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 0.62 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 1.24 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00 - Average buyback yield: 1.7% - Buyback history: 3 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Acquisition spending: EUR 1.4B - Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 5.7B - ROIC, first three-year median: 4.8% - ROIC, last three-year median: 6.7% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: EUR 0.51 - FY2017: EUR 0.62 - FY2018: EUR -0.65 - FY2019: EUR 0.37 - FY2020: EUR -0.58 - FY2021: EUR 1.02 - FY2022: EUR 0.18 - FY2023: EUR 0.63 - FY2024: EUR 4.47 - FY2025: EUR 1.24 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -2.7% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.94× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.9% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 1.82× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -3.4% - FY2017: -3.6% - FY2018: -5.8% - FY2019: -3.8% - FY2020: -6.7% - FY2021: -0.1% - FY2022: -3.3% - FY2023: -3.1% - FY2024: 6.7% - FY2025: -2.7% ## Holders - [Chris Hohn](https://gigainvestors.com/tci): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Down 24% since Feb 2026 · "J.P. Morgan flags Ferrovial downside risk from costly I24 project bid" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales +5.2% Story as of 2026-10-12T14:39:46.173Z; price observation 2026-09. Price needs cash profits to grow 10.5% a year for ten years - 2025-05-14: Ferrovial's quarterly core profit rises 19% led by US highways business ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ferrovials-quarterly-core-profit-rises-061203744.html)) - 2026-02-19: Ferrovial shares slip as 407 ETR results trail expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ferrovial-shares-slip-407-etr-091140342.html)) ### Sales · FY2024–2025 sales +5.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1468522/000162828026011789/fer-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25. - FY2016: EUR 11B - FY2017: EUR 5.2B - FY2018: EUR 5.7B - FY2019: EUR 6.1B - FY2020: EUR 6.5B - FY2021: EUR 6.9B - FY2022: EUR 7.6B - FY2023: EUR 8.5B - FY2024: EUR 9.1B - FY2025: EUR 9.6B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 24.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1468522/000162828026011789/fer-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25. - FY2016: 21.1% - FY2017: 24.1% - FY2018: 23.0% - FY2019: 21.1% - FY2020: 18.0% - FY2021: 20.8% - FY2022: 21.6% - FY2023: 25.0% - FY2024: 24.9% - FY2025: 24.9% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are EUR 9.6 billion. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 9627000000; grossProfit 2394000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 24.9% to 25% during 2023–25; it earns 4.4% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 25%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.9%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.9%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.11130083262941957],[2017,0.04833475710624584],[2018,0.03966788771534343],[2019,-0.006824368653486482],[2020,0.02152724968314322],[2021,0.038128444494432576],[2022,0.030634518385300367],[2023,0.059506470733156534],[2024,0.06744749310408323],[2025,0.0806774570332054]]; median 0.04400132241079463. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Reinvests 40.1% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 177000000; owner earnings 541000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 135000000; owner earnings 434000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 22000000; upkeep 180000000; owner earnings 268000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08208955223880597. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 124000000; owner earnings 894000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 95000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 331000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 86000000; cash acquisitions 214000000; owner earnings 775000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2761290322580645. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 226000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 3454000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 187000000; cash acquisitions 478000000; owner earnings 1191000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.40134340890008396. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,226000000],[2017,218000000],[2018,240000000],[2019,238000000],[2020,122000000],[2021,31000000],[2022,132000000],[2023,136000000],[2024,130000000],[2025,156000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/FER.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 501000000 EUR. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 35% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FER.AS SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 34.994 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What could break it US import tariffs could raise product costs. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1468522/000162828026011789/fer-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); rials (including cement, concrete, steel rebars and bitumen (asphalt)), increased labor costs, supply problems and difficulties in the distribution chain of certain materials, especially in the construction sector, any of which could worsen if these conflicts were to expand or intensify. For further details, see “—1. Inflationary pressures and energy and commodity prices.” The above factors also impact interest rates, which affect the banking and financing market and hence our financing options. As a further example of macroeconomic factors, the United States proposed new and increased tariffs on foreign imports, and the development and application of new tariffs continues to rapidly evolve. The tariffs, or potential risk of their imposition, have introduced significant uncertainty into the market, leading to volatility in material prices and potential delays in project timelines. These tariffs, whether imposed or proposed and at the rates or levels announced or at other rates or levels, and related uncertainty, can and have led to increased costs and could affect our strategic planning and financial forecasting, particularly in our Construction Business Division. Management continues to evaluate the potential impact of these evolving developments. 5.A.2.5Seasonality Revenue and cash flow in the Highways, Construction and Airports Business Divisions is also partially impacted by seasonal factors, including weather conditions and holiday seasons, which drive demand for transport infrastructure. The Highways Business Division revenue is affected by seasonal changes in traffic volumes, with typically lower traffic in the winter months due to adverse climate conditions. We believe that this trend has been exacerbated in the Highways Business Division as a result of the increase in hybrid work models and work flexibility, although we have observed a gradual return to the office approach during 2025. The Construction Business Division is also affected by weather conditions, typically experiencing lower revenues in the first quarter of the year. For example, in the first quarter of the year ended December 31, 2025, Construction Business Division revenues amounted to EUR 1,584 million, compared to EUR 1,869 million, EUR 1,967 million and EUR 2,233 million in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2025, respectively. The Airports Business Division is also affected by seasonal trends, including holiday seasons. For example, in the third quarter of the year ended December 31, 2025, Dalaman airport’s revenues amounted to EUR 41 million, in contrast with EUR 3 million and EUR 16 million in the first and fourth quarters, respectively, as the airport is much busier during the summer holidays. 5.A.2.6Liquidity management and investments Our infrastructure assets must be able to secure significant levels of financing to be able to ca ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 10.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.2%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13760438750502757. Price 48.029996274693715; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.0929395285723666 → FY2025 1.657121867330072. Closing-price date 2026-10-16. ## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share) - 2023-06: EUR 29.03 per share - 2023-07: EUR 30.29 per share - 2023-08: EUR 29.07 per share - 2023-09: EUR 28.11 per share - 2023-10: EUR 27.00 per share - 2023-11: EUR 31.60 per share - 2023-12: EUR 32.93 per share - 2024-01: EUR 34.43 per share - 2024-02: EUR 34.75 per share - 2024-03: EUR 36.68 per share - 2024-04: EUR 33.74 per share - 2024-05: EUR 36.40 per share - 2024-06: EUR 37.40 per share - 2024-07: EUR 36.76 per share - 2024-08: EUR 37.92 per share - 2024-09: EUR 39.98 per share - 2024-10: EUR 36.92 per share - 2024-11: EUR 38.14 per share - 2024-12: EUR 40.00 per share - 2025-01: EUR 41.40 per share - 2025-02: EUR 42.58 per share - 2025-03: EUR 42.20 per share - 2025-04: EUR 43.70 per share - 2025-05: EUR 45.24 per share - 2025-06: EUR 46.25 per share - 2025-07: EUR 46.06 per share - 2025-08: EUR 46.65 per share - 2025-09: EUR 48.84 per share - 2025-10: EUR 51.00 per share - 2025-11: EUR 56.38 per share - 2025-12: EUR 55.36 per share - 2026-01: EUR 57.00 per share - 2026-02: EUR 63.12 per share - 2026-03: EUR 55.36 per share - 2026-04: EUR 58.56 per share - 2026-05: EUR 58.82 per share - 2026-06: EUR 60.08 per share - 2026-07: EUR 56.70 per share - 2026-08: EUR 50.44 per share - 2026-09: EUR 48.03 per share ## Annual estimated value (EUR per share) - FY2016: low EUR 17.79 per share, central EUR 19.62 per share, high EUR 22.05 per share - FY2017: low EUR 12.31 per share, central EUR 13.18 per share, high EUR 14.34 per share - FY2018: low EUR 10.49 per share, central EUR 11.20 per share, high EUR 12.15 per share - FY2019: low EUR 10.88 per share, central EUR 11.51 per share, high EUR 12.34 per share - FY2020: low EUR 12.92 per share, central EUR 13.52 per share, high EUR 14.31 per share - FY2021: low EUR 11.90 per share, central EUR 12.53 per share, high EUR 13.37 per share - FY2022: low EUR 9.40 per share, central EUR 10.09 per share, high EUR 11.00 per share - FY2023: low EUR 9.69 per share, central EUR 10.47 per share, high EUR 11.51 per share - FY2024: low EUR 17.35 per share, central EUR 19.08 per share, high EUR 21.39 per share - FY2025: low EUR 22.46 per share, central EUR 24.95 per share, high EUR 28.28 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1468522/000162828026011789/fer-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights. ## Reported holder observations - [Chris Hohn](https://gigainvestors.com/tci): 20,940,441 FER shares; USD 1,434,612,000 reported position value; 2.72% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.