# FirstGroup (FGP.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FGP.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:42:41.014Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 202.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 658.59 per share, central GBX 740.42 per share, high GBX 849.35 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 740.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:42:41.014Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 40.0% at the stated quote. About 40.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.49×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: -0.02×

- FY2021: -0.00×

- FY2022: -0.01×

- FY2023: 0.00×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- FY2026: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 36.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 36.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 2.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 13.0%

- FY2018: 14.8%

- FY2019: 17.6%

- FY2020: -2.9%

- FY2021: -0.5%

- FY2022: -3.2%

- FY2023: 0.2%

- FY2024: 2.3%

- FY2025: 10.5%

- FY2026: 8.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 1.9B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 953M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.42×

- FY2023: 3.23×

- FY2024: -3.92×

- FY2025: 2.77×

- FY2026: 2.30×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.8% vs 8.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.07 to 0.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -7.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -14.7%

- Market cap gain: GBP -707M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -622M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -7.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -14.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 14.4%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.53

- Average buyback yield: 10.5%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 2.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 454M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.09

- FY2018: GBP -0.24

- FY2019: GBP -0.06

- FY2020: GBP -0.27

- FY2021: GBP 0.07

- FY2022: GBP 0.83

- FY2023: GBP 0.11

- FY2024: GBP -0.03

- FY2025: GBP 0.22

- FY2026: GBP 0.22

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -16.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.73×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.25×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.25×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -7.1%

- FY2018: -17.5%

- FY2019: -10.6%

- FY2020: -15.2%

- FY2021: -13.6%

- FY2022: 14.9%

- FY2023: -11.0%

- FY2024: -14.7%

- FY2025: -17.1%

- FY2026: -16.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 19.9% a year for ten years · sales +2.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.429Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 19.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93/2026-03-28/ESEF/GB/0/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93-2026-03-28/reports/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93-2026-03-28-T01.html; observed 2026-07-07.

- FY2017: GBP 5.7B 

- FY2018: GBP 6.4B 

- FY2019: GBP 7.1B 

- FY2020: GBP 4.6B 

- FY2021: GBP 4.3B 

- FY2022: GBP 4.6B 

- FY2023: GBP 4.8B 

- FY2024: GBP 4.7B 

- FY2025: GBP 4.7B 

- FY2026: GBP 4.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 2.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93/2026-03-28/ESEF/GB/0/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93-2026-03-28/reports/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93-2026-03-28-T01.html; observed 2026-07-07.

- FY2017: 29.8% 

- FY2018: 29.7% 

- FY2019: 27.0% 

- FY2020: 38.8% 

- FY2021: 47.3% 

- FY2022: 46.2% 

- FY2023: 47.0% 

- FY2024: 42.9% 

- FY2025: 39.0% 

- FY2026: 2.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in railroads; annual sales are GBP 4.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2026: revenue 4751900000; grossProfit 135700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FGP.LSE: FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. It operates a fleet of approximately 6,000 buses and coaches, as well as 320 trains. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 2.9% to 42.9% during 2024–26; it earns 5.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 42.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 2.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.13033739226600088],[2018,0.1479926746471324],[2019,0.17557479452054794],[2020,-0.028533230672313024],[2021,-0.004732247154679957],[2022,-0.03223460119216577],[2023,0.002361486856768568],[2024,0.022606153846153845],[2025,0.10462832695951103],[2026,0.08088768182415212]]; median 0.051746917835152985. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 46% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93/2026-03-28/ESEF/GB/0/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93-2026-03-28/reports/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93-2026-03-28-T01.html (filed 2026-07-07); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.4732333055478374],[2022,0.4619372263727647],[2023,0.47005257623554153]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back GBP 50.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 374100000; owner earnings 151300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 389600000; owner earnings 16420000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 251600000; owner earnings 900760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 177900000; owner earnings 281140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 216900000; owner earnings 62300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 156400000; owner earnings 353280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 241800000; owner earnings 271600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); Dividend observations: [[2017,115500000],[2018,447700000],[2019,0],[2020,115500000],[2021,76200000],[2022,900300000],[2023,14700000],[2024,29500000],[2025,34200000],[2026,38900000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); FY2026: cash repurchases 50400000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); FGP.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 5.4399999999999995 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 19.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 23.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-07); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.2866465933338175. Price 202.4; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.06128845995215706 → FY2026 0.5003841314116323. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 109.60 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 101.80 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 103.60 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 103.90 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 120.20 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 132.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 136.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 149.80 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 125.70 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 115.50 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 117.40 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 117.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 110.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 109.40 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 110.50 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 103.80 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 81.95 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 82.10 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 112.90 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 89.80 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 83.50 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 88.30 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 88.65 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 91.05 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 85.50 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 89.20 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 83.40 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 92.50 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 89.35 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 90.95 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 110.40 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 115.30 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 97.75 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 114.80 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 130.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 137.50 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 129.10 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 120.40 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 125.40 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 123.80 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 117.80 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 50.45 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 66.85 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 55.55 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 50.35 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 35.30 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 43.66 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 38.08 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 41.02 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 60.50 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 74.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 71.75 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 90.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 92.05 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 74.30 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 81.50 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 81.90 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 82.90 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 90.25 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 88.95 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 100.80 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 93.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 102.20 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 101.10 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 100.20 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 112.30 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 112.80 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 136.50 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 127.50 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 133.50 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 115.10 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 105.20 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 105.20 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 102.10 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 101.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 108.40 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 105.50 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 103.90 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 112.40 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 114.80 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 145.90 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 146.30 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 145.10 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 150.90 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 157.90 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 160.20 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 175.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 168.70 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 158.20 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 180.40 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 162.20 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 170.70 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 158.30 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 175.40 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 157.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 146.10 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 133.30 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 151.40 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 160.70 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 163.10 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 159.70 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 156.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 172.70 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 191.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 230.60 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 224.40 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 221.60 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 225.60 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 210.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 176.70 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 190.60 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 186.40 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 183.80 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 166.20 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 162.60 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 171.20 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 187.80 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 184.40 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 179.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 182.70 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 202.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 155.53 per share, central GBX 173.71 per share, high GBX 197.92 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 116.93 per share, central GBX 128.21 per share, high GBX 143.23 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 102.72 per share, central GBX 110.62 per share, high GBX 121.14 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 116.96 per share, central GBX 120.52 per share, high GBX 125.27 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 180.95 per share, central GBX 196.63 per share, high GBX 217.51 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 529.64 per share, central GBX 600.81 per share, high GBX 695.55 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 627.85 per share, central GBX 705.86 per share, high GBX 809.71 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:48:41.600Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93/2026-03-28/ESEF/GB/0/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93-2026-03-28/reports/549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93-2026-03-28-T01.html); period 2026-03-28, filed 2026-07-07.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations