# Fossil Group (FOSL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FOSL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:36.977Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $6.88 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 9 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 9

- Years with a net loss: 8

- Operating margin variation: 2.22×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: -0.15×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: -0.01×

- FY2020: -0.08×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: -0.00×

- FY2023: -0.10×

- FY2024: -0.09×

- FY2025: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -1.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -27.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 50.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 52.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -7.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.6%

- FY2017: -42.1%

- FY2018: 7.0%

- FY2019: -2.9%

- FY2020: -20.7%

- FY2021: 11.5%

- FY2022: -0.2%

- FY2023: -21.5%

- FY2024: -27.8%

- FY2025: 6.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$298M

- Net income, five-year total: -$357M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.8%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: $45M

- FY2022: -$34M

- FY2023: -$148M

- FY2024: -$93M

- FY2025: -$68M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.0% vs -21.5%

- Per-share earnings: 1.63 to -1.94 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Market cap gain: -$1.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$3.57

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.94

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.36

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $99M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$908M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -21.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.63

- FY2017: -$9.87

- FY2018: -$0.07

- FY2019: -$1.04

- FY2020: -$1.88

- FY2021: $0.48

- FY2022: -$0.85

- FY2023: -$3.00

- FY2024: -$1.94

- FY2025: -$1.45

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.67×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.0%

- FY2017: -39.7%

- FY2018: -16.0%

- FY2019: -2.4%

- FY2020: -13.3%

- FY2021: -1.8%

- FY2022: 5.4%

- FY2023: -10.0%

- FY2024: -19.6%

- FY2025: -3.0%

## Holders

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 49% since Feb 2022 · sales -12.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:46.859Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -12.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883569/000088356926000017/fosl-20260103.htm; observed 2026-03-12.

- FY2016: $3.0B 

- FY2017: $2.8B 

- FY2018: $2.5B 

- FY2019: $2.2B 

- FY2020: $1.6B 

- FY2021: $1.9B 

- FY2022: $1.7B 

- FY2023: $1.4B 

- FY2024: $1.1B 

- FY2025: $1.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 56.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883569/000088356926000017/fosl-20260103.htm; observed 2026-03-12.

- FY2016: 51.9% 

- FY2017: 48.7% 

- FY2018: 52.7% 

- FY2019: 49.6% 

- FY2020: 47.7% 

- FY2021: 51.7% 

- FY2022: 49.4% 

- FY2023: 48.5% 

- FY2024: 52.2% 

- FY2025: 56.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in footwear & accessories; annual sales are USD 1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: revenue 1004406000; grossProfit 563148000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-04); FOSL.US: Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, SKECHERS, and TORY BURCH. It sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department and specialty retail stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, retail concessions, and airlines, as well as operate stores under the WATCH STATION and WSI brands. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 48.5% to 56.1% during 2023–25; it lost 1.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 48.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 52.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 56.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09617182191946712],[2017,-0.4212144639845578],[2018,0.07011033711730306],[2019,-0.028503291104483987],[2020,-0.20699111445870613],[2021,0.1150809774631521],[2022,-0.002008114115316385],[2023,-0.21516010046863782],[2024,-0.2776127531685153],[2025,0.06297111345445745]]; median -0.015255702609900185. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 5 of 10 years; bought back USD 164000 of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 65674000; owner earnings 107786000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 17961000; owner earnings 46145000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 10293000; owner earnings 44747000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,8688000],[2017,4022000],[2018,4224000],[2019,3861000],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,5686000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 164000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-04); FOSL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.17 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-04.

### What the price says

The price is 0.4 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); Closing price 6.88 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 18.57019246769094; price multiple 0.3704861978124384. FY2025 cash earnings/share -1.2537208571375746. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $27.27 per share

- 2016-11: $33.42 per share

- 2016-12: $25.86 per share

- 2017-01: $25.57 per share

- 2017-02: $18.91 per share

- 2017-03: $17.45 per share

- 2017-04: $17.25 per share

- 2017-05: $10.77 per share

- 2017-06: $10.35 per share

- 2017-07: $11.25 per share

- 2017-08: $8.29 per share

- 2017-09: $9.33 per share

- 2017-10: $7.88 per share

- 2017-11: $7.08 per share

- 2017-12: $7.77 per share

- 2018-01: $7.96 per share

- 2018-02: $13.38 per share

- 2018-03: $12.70 per share

- 2018-04: $14.95 per share

- 2018-05: $21.88 per share

- 2018-06: $26.87 per share

- 2018-07: $26.20 per share

- 2018-08: $22.67 per share

- 2018-09: $23.28 per share

- 2018-10: $21.71 per share

- 2018-11: $19.33 per share

- 2018-12: $15.73 per share

- 2019-01: $16.96 per share

- 2019-02: $15.64 per share

- 2019-03: $13.72 per share

- 2019-04: $13.07 per share

- 2019-05: $9.79 per share

- 2019-06: $11.50 per share

- 2019-07: $11.04 per share

- 2019-08: $12.80 per share

- 2019-09: $12.51 per share

- 2019-10: $10.88 per share

- 2019-11: $7.49 per share

- 2019-12: $7.88 per share

- 2020-01: $6.73 per share

- 2020-02: $4.59 per share

- 2020-03: $3.29 per share

- 2020-04: $3.96 per share

- 2020-05: $3.05 per share

- 2020-06: $4.65 per share

- 2020-07: $3.31 per share

- 2020-08: $6.44 per share

- 2020-09: $5.74 per share

- 2020-10: $5.71 per share

- 2020-11: $10.60 per share

- 2020-12: $8.67 per share

- 2021-01: $14.50 per share

- 2021-02: $15.14 per share

- 2021-03: $12.40 per share

- 2021-04: $12.90 per share

- 2021-05: $14.12 per share

- 2021-06: $14.28 per share

- 2021-07: $12.62 per share

- 2021-08: $13.40 per share

- 2021-09: $11.85 per share

- 2021-10: $11.82 per share

- 2021-11: $11.95 per share

- 2021-12: $10.29 per share

- 2022-01: $11.09 per share

- 2022-02: $13.52 per share

- 2022-03: $9.64 per share

- 2022-04: $9.88 per share

- 2022-05: $7.34 per share

- 2022-06: $5.17 per share

- 2022-07: $6.03 per share

- 2022-08: $4.23 per share

- 2022-09: $3.42 per share

- 2022-10: $4.25 per share

- 2022-11: $4.77 per share

- 2022-12: $4.31 per share

- 2023-01: $5.68 per share

- 2023-02: $4.33 per share

- 2023-03: $3.20 per share

- 2023-04: $3.36 per share

- 2023-05: $2.03 per share

- 2023-06: $2.57 per share

- 2023-07: $2.78 per share

- 2023-08: $2.12 per share

- 2023-09: $2.06 per share

- 2023-10: $1.56 per share

- 2023-11: $1.10 per share

- 2023-12: $1.46 per share

- 2024-01: $1.16 per share

- 2024-02: $1.06 per share

- 2024-03: $1.02 per share

- 2024-04: $0.78 per share

- 2024-05: $1.20 per share

- 2024-06: $1.44 per share

- 2024-07: $1.21 per share

- 2024-08: $1.13 per share

- 2024-09: $1.17 per share

- 2024-10: $1.27 per share

- 2024-11: $1.46 per share

- 2024-12: $1.67 per share

- 2025-01: $1.67 per share

- 2025-02: $1.52 per share

- 2025-03: $1.15 per share

- 2025-04: $1.01 per share

- 2025-05: $1.48 per share

- 2025-06: $1.48 per share

- 2025-07: $1.69 per share

- 2025-08: $3.06 per share

- 2025-09: $2.57 per share

- 2025-10: $2.08 per share

- 2025-11: $3.01 per share

- 2025-12: $3.76 per share

- 2026-01: $3.47 per share

- 2026-02: $4.68 per share

- 2026-03: $4.31 per share

- 2026-04: $4.43 per share

- 2026-05: $4.38 per share

- 2026-06: $4.14 per share

- 2026-07: $4.95 per share

- 2026-08: $4.97 per share

- 2026-09: $6.57 per share

- 2026-10: $6.88 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $78.76 per share, central $88.94 per share, high $102.50 per share

- FY2017: low $47.40 per share, central $53.43 per share, high $61.47 per share

- FY2018: low $27.17 per share, central $29.93 per share, high $33.60 per share

- FY2019: low $11.87 per share, central $13.07 per share, high $14.68 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883569/000088356926000017/fosl-20260103.htm); period 2026-01-03, filed 2026-03-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): 2,143,445 FOSL shares; USD 8,874,000 reported position value; 2.1% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# FOSL — Fossil Inc.

Held by 1 investor · USD 8,874,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 4.14 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/FOSL

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Bill Miller (https://gigainvestors.com/LMM) | USD 8,874,000 | 2.1% | reduce -11.62% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2017 Q3: USD 302,896 · 1 holder · USD 9.34
- 2017 Q4: USD 397,933 · 1 holder · USD 7.76
- 2018 Q1: USD 308,928 · 1 holder · USD 12.70
- 2018 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2018 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2018 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2019 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2019 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2019 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2019 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q3: USD 1,142,867 · 1 holder · USD 2.06
- 2023 Q4: USD 1,456,825 · 1 holder · USD 1.46
- 2024 Q1: USD 1,113,585 · 1 holder · USD 1.02
- 2024 Q2: USD 1,567,620 · 1 holder · USD 1.44
- 2024 Q3: USD 1,559,844 · 1 holder · USD 1.17
- 2024 Q4: USD 4,293,704 · 1 holder · USD 1.67
- 2025 Q1: USD 3,409,934 · 1 holder · USD 1.15
- 2025 Q2: USD 5,135,196 · 1 holder · USD 1.48
- 2025 Q3: USD 8,548,835 · 1 holder · USD 2.57
- 2025 Q4: USD 11,973,400 · 1 holder · USD 3.76
- 2026 Q1: USD 10,452,547 · 1 holder · USD 4.31
- 2026 Q2: USD 8,874,000 · 1 holder · USD 4.14