# Games Workshop Group (GAW.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GAW.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:31.161Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 17,090.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 8,971.01 per share, central GBX 12,851.08 per share, high GBX 15,015.13 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 12,851.08 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:31.161Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.3% at the stated quote. About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.16×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.25×

- FY2018: 0.34×

- FY2019: 0.32×

- FY2020: 0.28×

- FY2021: 0.42×

- FY2022: 0.38×

- FY2023: 0.37×

- FY2024: 0.38×

- FY2025: 0.42×

- FY2026: 0.42×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 79.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 62.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 71.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 72.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 76.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 77.3%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 88.9%

- FY2020: 50.9%

- FY2021: 79.1%

- FY2022: 62.0%

- FY2023: 71.6%

- FY2024: 79.2%

- FY2025: >100%

- FY2026: 99.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 790M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 816M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 321.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.94×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 0.98×

- FY2025: 0.97×

- FY2026: 0.95×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 88.9% vs 99.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.93 to 5.93 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP 6.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 260M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 26.1%

- Per-share value change: GBP 5.00

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.93

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 5.93

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 24M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 88.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 99.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.93

- FY2018: GBP 1.82

- FY2019: GBP 2.01

- FY2020: GBP 2.16

- FY2021: GBP 3.71

- FY2022: GBP 3.91

- FY2023: GBP 4.08

- FY2024: GBP 4.58

- FY2025: GBP 5.93

- FY2026: GBP 6.22

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.30×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -15.4%

- FY2018: -8.8%

- FY2019: -4.8%

- FY2020: -16.0%

- FY2021: -3.8%

- FY2022: 2.1%

- FY2023: -17.7%

- FY2024: -12.8%

- FY2025: -13.4%

- FY2026: -13.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Jun 2026 · "Tariff costs are likely to reduce our reported gross margin next year." (GAW filing, Sep 2025) · sales +6.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.616Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41/2025-06-01/ESEF/GB/0/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41-2025-06-01/reports/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41-2025-06-01.xhtml; observed 2025-09-24.

- FY2017: GBP 158M 

- FY2018: GBP 221M 

- FY2019: GBP 257M 

- FY2020: GBP 270M 

- FY2021: GBP 370M 

- FY2022: GBP 415M 

- FY2023: GBP 471M 

- FY2024: GBP 526M 

- FY2025: GBP 618M 

- FY2026: GBP 660M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 72.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41/2025-06-01/ESEF/GB/0/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41-2025-06-01/reports/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41-2025-06-01.xhtml; observed 2025-09-24.

- FY2017: 72.4% 

- FY2018: 71.0% 

- FY2019: 67.5% 

- FY2020: 65.6% 

- FY2021: 72.9% 

- FY2022: 68.2% 

- FY2023: 67.9% 

- FY2024: 71.2% 

- FY2025: 72.1% 

- FY2026: 72.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in leisure; annual sales are GBP 659.7 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2026: revenue 659700000; grossProfit 478400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GAW.LSE: Games Workshop Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, distribution, and sale of fantasy miniature figures and games in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Core and Licensing. It offers games under the Warhammer 40,000; Warhammer: The Horus Heresy; Warhammer: The Old World; Warhammer: Age of Sigmar; and Necromunda and Blood Bowl brand names, as well as has a licensed property for the Lord of the Rings. The company also publishes short stories, audio dramas, full length novels, and audio books under the Black Library name. In addition, it engages in the magazine newsstand business; and grants licences to third parties for the development of video games, PC games, media, and other products. The company sells its products through its own retail stores, third party independent retailers, and online stores. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Nottingham, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 71.2% to 72.5% during 2024–26; it earns 79.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 71.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 72.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 72.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.7726873692896432],[2018,1.0357547275267107],[2019,0.8890008358501652],[2020,0.509082120590112],[2021,0.7914563248037831],[2022,0.6200059411582833],[2023,0.7156719819700771],[2024,0.7922299474132736],[2025,1.0155245195966514],[2026,0.9926423561281867]]; median 0.7918431361085283. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 1.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 5409000; owner earnings 35362000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2018: growth capex 2534000; upkeep 12163000; owner earnings 59679000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.042460496992241824.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 13600000; owner earnings 68121000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 24600000; owner earnings 65280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2021: growth capex 3800000; upkeep 26200000; owner earnings 112600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03374777975133215.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 32300000; owner earnings 121020000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 28300000; owner earnings 135920000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 32600000; owner earnings 148060000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 40900000; owner earnings 190060000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); FY2026: growth capex 2900000; upkeep 46500000; owner earnings 194800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.014887063655030801.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); Incremental return on capital 3.2102167709972367, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,23801000],[2018,38701000],[2019,50200000],[2020,47300000],[2021,60500000],[2022,93500000],[2023,136500000],[2024,138300000],[2025,171400000],[2026,160100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GAW.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.44600000000000006 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

The award does not vest until 31 December 2027 and is dependent on his continued employment.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41/2025-06-01/ESEF/GB/0/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41-2025-06-01/reports/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41-2025-06-01.xhtml (filed 2025-09-24); 41 Games Workshop Group PLC REMUNERATION REPORT continued Evolving the remuneration policy continued 300% of base salary - in recognition of his continuing performance. The award does not vest until 31 December 2027 and is dependent on his continued employment. This Restrictive Share Award further aligns with shareholder interests providing appropriate reward and retentive elements to CEO compensation before the first potential award under the Triennial Share Award plan in 2026/27.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 30.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-09-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.19526655536199267. Price 17090; FX 100; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.41125382933498994 → FY2026 5.877560872582446. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 568.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 584.50 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 713.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 826.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 889.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 975.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 975.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 934.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,200.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,602.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,640.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,969.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 2,270.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,958.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 2,633.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 2,345.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 2,390.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 2,305.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 2,435.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 2,900.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 3,000.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 2,995.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 3,560.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 3,785.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 3,070.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 3,035.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 3,040.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 3,025.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 3,130.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 3,145.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 4,156.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 4,462.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 4,966.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 4,536.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 4,380.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 4,720.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 4,470.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 5,730.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 6,105.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 6,635.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 6,300.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 4,330.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 6,020.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 7,960.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 8,015.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 8,780.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 9,220.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 10,190.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 10,370.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 9,840.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 11,200.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 10,330.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 9,555.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 9,965.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 10,850.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 11,940.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 11,400.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 11,370.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 11,570.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 10,270.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 9,645.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 9,360.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 9,970.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 7,940.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 7,475.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 7,265.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 7,410.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 7,340.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 6,680.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 7,745.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 7,105.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 5,795.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 6,400.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 7,365.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 8,565.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 9,380.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 9,245.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 9,640.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 9,920.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 9,460.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 10,920.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 11,650.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 10,820.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 10,570.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 9,875.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 10,710.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 9,870.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 9,905.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 9,405.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 10,040.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 9,910.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 9,985.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 10,670.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 10,300.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 10,460.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 10,750.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 11,960.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 14,130.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 13,310.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 14,560.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 14,300.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 13,990.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 15,410.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 15,330.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 16,220.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 16,290.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 15,450.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 14,530.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 15,930.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 19,410.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 18,920.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 17,050.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 17,890.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 17,700.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 19,490.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 19,860.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 21,600.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 19,120.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 18,420.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 17,990.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 17,090.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 707.63 per share, central GBX 991.63 per share, high GBX 1,157.00 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 1,121.40 per share, central GBX 1,570.48 per share, high GBX 1,831.97 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 2,451.88 per share, central GBX 3,470.88 per share, high GBX 4,064.24 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 2,834.33 per share, central GBX 3,987.20 per share, high GBX 4,658.51 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 4,294.50 per share, central GBX 6,033.35 per share, high GBX 7,045.88 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 4,819.34 per share, central GBX 6,802.27 per share, high GBX 7,956.93 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 5,842.17 per share, central GBX 8,240.82 per share, high GBX 9,637.56 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 6,969.82 per share, central GBX 10,032.47 per share, high GBX 11,740.63 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 8,280.93 per share, central GBX 11,913.06 per share, high GBX 13,938.83 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 8,944.58 per share, central GBX 12,813.22 per share, high GBX 14,970.90 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41/2025-06-01/ESEF/GB/0/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41-2025-06-01/reports/213800RP9QJQYGWHNT41-2025-06-01.xhtml); period 2025-06-01, filed 2025-09-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations