# Grupo Carso (GCARSOA1.MX)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GCARSOA1.MX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: MXN. Reporting currency: MXN.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: MXN 157.76 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low MXN 62.54 per share, central MXN 80.33 per share, high MXN 88.53 per share. Buy at or below the central value MXN 80.33 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.1% at the stated quote. About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 13.3%). required return 13.3% a year (MX 10-year bond 9.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.33×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.09×

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.6%

- FY2017: 7.3%

- FY2018: 5.4%

- FY2019: 4.8%

- FY2020: 2.2%

- FY2021: 9.3%

- FY2022: 13.1%

- FY2023: 12.9%

- FY2024: 10.5%

- FY2025: 9.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: MXN 62B

- Net income, five-year total: MXN 67B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 41.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -18.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 18.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.07×

- FY2022: 0.94×

- FY2023: 0.92×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 0.78×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.3% vs 10.5%

- Per-share earnings: 4.21 to 5.99 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: MXN 76B

- Cumulative retained earnings: MXN 73B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.2%

- Per-share value change: MXN 1.78

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: MXN 4.21

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: MXN 5.99

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.36

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: MXN 15B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: MXN 109B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: MXN 4.21

- FY2017: MXN 4.41

- FY2018: MXN 3.96

- FY2019: MXN 4.44

- FY2020: MXN 2.50

- FY2021: MXN 4.99

- FY2022: MXN 8.48

- FY2023: MXN 5.99

- FY2024: MXN 6.41

- FY2025: MXN 3.89

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.77×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.7%

- FY2017: -0.9%

- FY2018: -1.1%

- FY2019: -0.6%

- FY2020: -3.0%

- FY2021: 4.4%

- FY2022: 1.1%

- FY2023: -2.1%

- FY2024: -3.8%

- FY2025: -5.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 16% a year for ten years · sales -3.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:02.995Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 16% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: MXN 91B 

- FY2017: MXN 89B 

- FY2018: MXN 91B 

- FY2019: MXN 97B 

- FY2020: MXN 89B 

- FY2021: MXN 125B 

- FY2022: MXN 182B 

- FY2023: MXN 193B 

- FY2024: MXN 198B 

- FY2025: MXN 192B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 23.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 26.7% 

- FY2017: 27.3% 

- FY2018: 25.5% 

- FY2019: 24.2% 

- FY2020: 20.6% 

- FY2021: 24.6% 

- FY2022: 24.4% 

- FY2023: 26.9% 

- FY2024: 24.9% 

- FY2025: 23.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are MXN 191.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2025: revenue 191626600000; grossProfit 45115210000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GCARSOA1.MX: Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally. It operates retail stores and sells various products, including electronics, household items, furniture, clothing, pharmaceuticals, health and beauty products, books, videos, music, toys, sports items, cellphones, technology products, and other merchandise, as well as traditional Mexican food under the Sanborns Cafés, MixUp, iShop, Sears, Dax, and Saks Fifth Avenue brand names. The company also manufactures and markets products and services, such as electrical and coaxial cables, telecommunications equipment, fiber optics, automotive harnesses, and piping specialized industrial components for construction and infrastructure, energy, automotive, telecommunications, and mining industries under the Condumex brand name; and engages in the installation of pipelines, fabrication and services for petrochemical, infrastructure projects, civil construction, and housing development. In addition, it is involved in the exploration, discovery, production, exploitation, refining, transportation, purchasing, and marketing of hydrocarbons and minerals; transportation of natural gas; exploration, production, and exploitation of geothermal energy; and investment, construction, and transmission of gas pipeline. Further, the company engages in the research and development; design of automotive harnesses; development of software; testing of embedded automotive systems; and engineering services. It exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23.5% to 26.9% during 2023–25; it earns 9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 23.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08632624274583525],[2017,0.0730181934920393],[2018,0.05397558740488055],[2019,0.04793290840933895],[2020,0.02210956899347072],[2021,0.0933641500861225],[2022,0.1314180643378431],[2023,0.12919334930911477],[2024,0.10465654836283837],[2025,0.09460822491105574]]; median 0.08984519641597888. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back MXN 224.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 5831354000; owner earnings 6464272000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 4340943000; owner earnings 6236185000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2019: growth capex 401915000; upkeep 3280935000; owner earnings 6201320200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06481119939589637.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4628626000; owner earnings 3357544800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1431770000; owner earnings 12017987600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2022: growth capex 202581000; upkeep 5033539000; owner earnings 17844422455.4687. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.011352622955746931.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2023: growth capex 1276676000; upkeep 5434798000; owner earnings 12373531200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10317798366241643.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2024: growth capex 120475000; upkeep 6810363000; owner earnings 13322828036.118368. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009042749758038657.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 8187393000; owner earnings 6867521600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,3246915000],[2017,519965000],[2018,2099025000],[2019,2143741000],[2020,782222000],[2021,2371302000],[2022,2511761000],[2023,1878840000],[2024,4028448000],[2025,5072997000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 224854000 MXN.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 76% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GCARSOA1.MX SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 76.044 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 16% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.491Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21798219361734528. Price 157.76; FX 1; discount 0.13252; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (MXN per share)

- 2016-10: MXN 82.50 per share

- 2016-11: MXN 76.09 per share

- 2016-12: MXN 83.63 per share

- 2017-01: MXN 83.80 per share

- 2017-02: MXN 85.25 per share

- 2017-03: MXN 85.96 per share

- 2017-04: MXN 86.53 per share

- 2017-05: MXN 78.47 per share

- 2017-06: MXN 76.43 per share

- 2017-07: MXN 74.24 per share

- 2017-08: MXN 72.82 per share

- 2017-09: MXN 71.78 per share

- 2017-10: MXN 62.18 per share

- 2017-11: MXN 59.35 per share

- 2017-12: MXN 64.93 per share

- 2018-01: MXN 69.82 per share

- 2018-02: MXN 66.19 per share

- 2018-03: MXN 64.03 per share

- 2018-04: MXN 67.20 per share

- 2018-05: MXN 62.17 per share

- 2018-06: MXN 67.05 per share

- 2018-07: MXN 77.51 per share

- 2018-08: MXN 70.70 per share

- 2018-09: MXN 62.07 per share

- 2018-10: MXN 59.78 per share

- 2018-11: MXN 65.32 per share

- 2018-12: MXN 70.41 per share

- 2019-01: MXN 74.96 per share

- 2019-02: MXN 71.37 per share

- 2019-03: MXN 76.29 per share

- 2019-04: MXN 73.51 per share

- 2019-05: MXN 72.13 per share

- 2019-06: MXN 71.56 per share

- 2019-07: MXN 61.81 per share

- 2019-08: MXN 57.65 per share

- 2019-09: MXN 57.93 per share

- 2019-10: MXN 64.40 per share

- 2019-11: MXN 65.36 per share

- 2019-12: MXN 69.82 per share

- 2020-01: MXN 68.13 per share

- 2020-02: MXN 54.03 per share

- 2020-03: MXN 46.57 per share

- 2020-04: MXN 48.25 per share

- 2020-05: MXN 49.99 per share

- 2020-06: MXN 44.82 per share

- 2020-07: MXN 43.94 per share

- 2020-08: MXN 43.21 per share

- 2020-09: MXN 45.43 per share

- 2020-10: MXN 39.28 per share

- 2020-11: MXN 45.90 per share

- 2020-12: MXN 66.38 per share

- 2021-01: MXN 51.59 per share

- 2021-02: MXN 51.84 per share

- 2021-03: MXN 55.88 per share

- 2021-04: MXN 57.75 per share

- 2021-05: MXN 60.28 per share

- 2021-06: MXN 62.29 per share

- 2021-07: MXN 65.05 per share

- 2021-08: MXN 68.27 per share

- 2021-09: MXN 70.71 per share

- 2021-10: MXN 69.25 per share

- 2021-11: MXN 62.37 per share

- 2021-12: MXN 66.19 per share

- 2022-01: MXN 57.69 per share

- 2022-02: MXN 62.37 per share

- 2022-03: MXN 74.41 per share

- 2022-04: MXN 66.66 per share

- 2022-05: MXN 81.09 per share

- 2022-06: MXN 74.95 per share

- 2022-07: MXN 79.51 per share

- 2022-08: MXN 69.33 per share

- 2022-09: MXN 73.76 per share

- 2022-10: MXN 79.84 per share

- 2022-11: MXN 83.33 per share

- 2022-12: MXN 81.77 per share

- 2023-01: MXN 95.32 per share

- 2023-02: MXN 87.42 per share

- 2023-03: MXN 89.56 per share

- 2023-04: MXN 101.49 per share

- 2023-05: MXN 105.23 per share

- 2023-06: MXN 124.34 per share

- 2023-07: MXN 133.15 per share

- 2023-08: MXN 135.91 per share

- 2023-09: MXN 127.66 per share

- 2023-10: MXN 114.96 per share

- 2023-11: MXN 159.57 per share

- 2023-12: MXN 189.59 per share

- 2024-01: MXN 161.36 per share

- 2024-02: MXN 147.46 per share

- 2024-03: MXN 148.12 per share

- 2024-04: MXN 134.73 per share

- 2024-05: MXN 131.06 per share

- 2024-06: MXN 125.76 per share

- 2024-07: MXN 119.80 per share

- 2024-08: MXN 118.26 per share

- 2024-09: MXN 121.90 per share

- 2024-10: MXN 120.31 per share

- 2024-11: MXN 121.72 per share

- 2024-12: MXN 115.28 per share

- 2025-01: MXN 118.80 per share

- 2025-02: MXN 119.07 per share

- 2025-03: MXN 120.27 per share

- 2025-04: MXN 136.34 per share

- 2025-05: MXN 123.62 per share

- 2025-06: MXN 133.78 per share

- 2025-07: MXN 134.53 per share

- 2025-08: MXN 123.66 per share

- 2025-09: MXN 130.77 per share

- 2025-10: MXN 132.78 per share

- 2025-11: MXN 124.84 per share

- 2025-12: MXN 117.94 per share

- 2026-01: MXN 118.97 per share

- 2026-02: MXN 134.95 per share

- 2026-03: MXN 134.62 per share

- 2026-04: MXN 132.81 per share

- 2026-05: MXN 137.49 per share

- 2026-06: MXN 130.51 per share

- 2026-07: MXN 147.68 per share

- 2026-08: MXN 139.42 per share

- 2026-09: MXN 136.92 per share

- 2026-10: MXN 155.39 per share

## Annual estimated value (MXN per share)

- FY2016: low MXN 14.19 per share, central MXN 15.33 per share, high MXN 16.72 per share

- FY2017: low MXN 13.30 per share, central MXN 14.41 per share, high MXN 15.75 per share

- FY2018: low MXN 19.43 per share, central MXN 20.96 per share, high MXN 22.81 per share

- FY2019: low MXN 33.39 per share, central MXN 36.08 per share, high MXN 39.34 per share

- FY2020: low MXN 25.31 per share, central MXN 27.16 per share, high MXN 29.40 per share

- FY2021: low MXN 33.48 per share, central MXN 36.25 per share, high MXN 39.61 per share

- FY2022: low MXN 56.69 per share, central MXN 75.27 per share, high MXN 83.49 per share

- FY2023: low MXN 57.82 per share, central MXN 76.32 per share, high MXN 84.50 per share

- FY2024: low MXN 61.59 per share, central MXN 81.48 per share, high MXN 90.28 per share

- FY2025: low MXN 61.85 per share, central MXN 79.64 per share, high MXN 87.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:35.129Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations