# Goodwin (GDWN.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GDWN.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:42:27.347Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 14,240.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 973.98 per share, central GBX 1,085.23 per share, high GBX 1,233.34 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,085.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:42:27.347Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.4% at the stated quote. About 3.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.17×

- FY2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -12.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 41.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.7%

- FY2018: 9.6%

- FY2019: 10.7%

- FY2020: 7.7%

- FY2021: 11.0%

- FY2022: 9.1%

- FY2024: 12.6%

- FY2025: 20.0%

- FY2026: 6.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.86×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 109M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 126M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -13.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -8.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 30.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.79×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.41×

- FY2025: 0.97×

- FY2026: 0.93×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.6% vs 12.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.16 to 3.27 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: GBP 749M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 46M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 13.9%

- Per-share value change: GBP 2.11

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 1.16

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 3.27

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 172M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.84

- FY2018: GBP 1.16

- FY2019: GBP 1.53

- FY2020: GBP 1.05

- FY2021: GBP 1.62

- FY2022: GBP 1.69

- FY2023: GBP 2.10

- FY2024: GBP 2.25

- FY2025: GBP 3.27

- FY2026: GBP 7.38

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.51×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.11×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.12×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.5%

- FY2018: -14.3%

- FY2019: 0.2%

- FY2020: -5.9%

- FY2021: -4.3%

- FY2022: -2.3%

- FY2024: -3.6%

- FY2025: -11.8%

- FY2026: -2.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 43% since Jan 2026 · sales -68.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.352Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 37% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -68.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322/2026-04-30/ESEF/GB/1/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30/reports/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30-1-en.html; observed 2026-09-02.

- FY2017: GBP 132M 

- FY2018: GBP 125M 

- FY2019: GBP 127M 

- FY2020: GBP 145M 

- FY2021: GBP 131M 

- FY2022: GBP 144M 

- FY2023: GBP 194M 

- FY2024: GBP 191M 

- FY2025: GBP 220M 

- FY2026: GBP 69M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 47.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322/2026-04-30/ESEF/GB/1/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30/reports/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30-1-en.html; observed 2026-09-02.

- FY2017: 25.6% 

- FY2018: 28.6% 

- FY2019: 32.0% 

- FY2020: 24.1% 

- FY2021: 29.7% 

- FY2022: 29.6% 

- FY2023: 25.1% 

- FY2024: 40.7% 

- FY2025: 41.7% 

- FY2026: 47.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are GBP 68.9 million.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322/2026-04-30/ESEF/GB/1/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30/reports/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30-1-en.html (filed 2026-09-02); FY2026: revenue 68862000; grossProfit 32744000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GDWN.LSE: Goodwin PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides refractory engineering and technological solutions in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the United States, the Pacific Basin, and internationally. It designs, manufactures, and sells investment casting powders, injection moulding rubbers, and waxes for jewelry casting, tire mould, and aerospace industries. The company also produces exfoliated vermiculite that is used in insulation, brake linings, and fire protection products, including technical textiles; manufactures cristobalite and ground silica, as well as various grades of perlite and a range of biodegradable bags for use inside traditional hessian/jute bags for the placement of concrete and other materials in or around rivers; sells consumable refractories to the shell molding casting industry; and designs, patents, and sells fire extinguishers. In addition, it manufactures and sells polyimide resins; and provides internet services. The company was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Stoke-On-Trent, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 40.7% to 47.6% during 2024–26; it earns 9.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 41.7%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322/2026-04-30/ESEF/GB/1/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30/reports/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30-1-en.html (filed 2026-09-02); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 47.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06732460816483264],[2018,0.09574746885600921],[2019,0.10680737318878772],[2020,0.07662958432329371],[2021,0.10965418875260244],[2022,0.09118454045349422],[2024,0.1257360530398737],[2025,0.199583393433224],[2026,0.06362433086707833]]; median 0.09574746885600921. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2017: growth capex 1816000; upkeep 6535000; owner earnings 6082000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2985859914501809.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 12722000; owner earnings 2163000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2019: growth capex 1153797.688135665; upkeep 12112202.311864335; owner earnings 6103197.688135665. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18904806088431225.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2020: growth capex 993000; upkeep 8029000; owner earnings 7301600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13599758956940944.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 13877000; owner earnings 6176200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2022: growth capex 7526086.511974245; upkeep 10475913.488025755; cash acquisitions 430000; owner earnings 10295286.511974245. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7727892276451634.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2023: growth capex 7386000; upkeep 9034000; owner earnings 15872000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4653477822580645.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 17401000; owner earnings 6983400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: growth capex 6702000; upkeep 9589000; owner earnings 23782800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2818002926484686.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322/2026-04-30/ESEF/GB/1/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30/reports/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30-1-en.html (filed 2026-09-02); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 13307000; owner earnings 51655000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); Dividend observations: [[2017,3111000],[2018,3137000],[2019,6126000],[2020,6927000],[2021,6016000],[2022,7862000],[2023,8462000],[2024,8636000],[2025,9988000],[2026,60978000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 64.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GDWN.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 64.201 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 37% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 22.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.534530506940009. Price 14240; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.8975872654285834 → FY2026 6.87852881644828. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 2,030.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 1,895.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 1,752.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 1,710.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 1,700.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 1,600.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,609.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,630.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,575.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,600.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,620.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,671.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 2,061.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 2,000.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 2,025.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,970.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,740.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,700.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,770.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 2,060.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,915.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 2,480.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 2,550.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 2,800.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 2,540.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 2,670.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 2,520.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 2,600.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 3,000.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 2,700.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 3,100.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 3,070.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 3,440.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 3,430.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 3,470.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 3,370.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 3,270.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 3,400.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,980.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 3,500.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 2,700.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,980.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 2,240.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 2,265.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 3,100.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 3,140.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 3,060.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 2,975.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 2,980.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 3,470.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 3,050.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 3,100.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,865.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,950.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,980.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 3,190.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,900.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 2,990.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 3,085.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 3,550.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 3,670.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 3,410.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 3,230.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 3,140.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 3,115.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 3,400.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 3,350.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,900.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 2,500.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 2,415.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 2,800.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 2,765.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 3,170.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 3,255.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 3,335.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 3,570.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 3,460.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 3,745.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 3,880.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 4,540.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 4,300.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 4,700.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 4,640.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 5,140.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 5,160.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 5,160.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 5,760.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 5,440.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 5,660.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 5,400.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 6,820.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 6,080.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 8,020.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 8,500.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 7,140.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 7,320.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 6,900.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 6,860.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 7,860.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 7,340.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 6,840.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 6,400.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 6,720.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 6,900.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 7,660.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 8,520.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 9,520.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 13,700.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 21,700.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 19,700.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 21,300.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 25,100.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 24,200.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 11,200.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 11,520.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 15,060.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 16,360.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 17,320.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 18,460.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 13,280.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 14,240.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 1,131.09 per share, central GBX 1,346.24 per share, high GBX 1,561.85 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 926.52 per share, central GBX 1,044.90 per share, high GBX 1,202.49 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 945.56 per share, central GBX 1,062.95 per share, high GBX 1,219.21 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 1,100.49 per share, central GBX 1,239.49 per share, high GBX 1,424.53 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 1,095.93 per share, central GBX 1,294.67 per share, high GBX 1,481.75 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 1,121.12 per share, central GBX 1,285.44 per share, high GBX 1,476.00 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 1,551.41 per share, central GBX 1,786.44 per share, high GBX 2,060.28 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 1,779.01 per share, central GBX 1,972.47 per share, high GBX 2,230.00 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 2,819.33 per share, central GBX 3,661.06 per share, high GBX 4,252.66 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 989.85 per share, central GBX 1,102.92 per share, high GBX 1,253.43 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:48:16.570Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322/2026-04-30/ESEF/GB/1/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30/reports/213800N4T1NMSJ57B322-2026-04-30-1-en.html); period 2026-04-30, filed 2026-09-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations