# Grafton Group (GFTU.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GFTU.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:40:04.338Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 979.30 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 1,188.78 per share, central GBX 1,327.18 per share, high GBX 1,511.43 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,327.18 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:40:04.338Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.2% at the stated quote. About 13.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.32×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 18.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 18.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 16.6%

- FY2017: 20.6%

- FY2018: 22.1%

- FY2019: 13.3%

- FY2020: 11.6%

- FY2021: 22.7%

- FY2022: 19.9%

- FY2023: 14.0%

- FY2024: 11.2%

- FY2025: 12.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 804M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 823M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.91×

- FY2022: 0.84×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 1.06×

- FY2025: 1.25×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.6% vs 12.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.41 to 0.71 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP 500M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 565M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.0%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.41

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.71

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.80

- Average buyback yield: 4.8%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 332M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.39

- FY2017: GBP 0.54

- FY2018: GBP 0.63

- FY2019: GBP 0.50

- FY2020: GBP 0.45

- FY2021: GBP 0.86

- FY2022: GBP 0.91

- FY2023: GBP 0.71

- FY2024: GBP 0.61

- FY2025: GBP 0.71

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.97×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.48×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.6%

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -1.2%

- FY2019: -4.0%

- FY2020: -7.0%

- FY2021: -1.1%

- FY2022: -0.3%

- FY2023: -4.4%

- FY2024: -4.5%

- FY2025: -4.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 27% since Oct 2021 · sales +10.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.189Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +10.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31/reports/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31.xhtml; observed 2026-09-02.

- FY2016: GBP 2.5B 

- FY2017: GBP 2.7B 

- FY2018: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2019: GBP 2.7B 

- FY2020: GBP 2.5B 

- FY2021: GBP 2.1B 

- FY2022: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2023: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2024: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31/reports/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31.xhtml; observed 2026-09-02.

- FY2016: 31.8% 

- FY2017: 32.8% 

- FY2018: 33.0% 

- FY2019: 34.3% 

- FY2020: 34.1% 

- FY2021: 39.4% 

- FY2022: 37.7% 

- FY2023: 16.1% 

- FY2024: 37.1% 

- FY2025: 15.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in industrial distribution; annual sales are GBP 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31/reports/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31.xhtml (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: revenue 2519603000; grossProfit 383677000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GFTU.LSE: Grafton Group plc distributes and sells building materials and construction related products in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands, Finland, and Spain. The company provides tools, ironmongery and accessories; distributes materials and plant for mechanical services, heating, plumbing and air movement; and distributes workwear and personal protective equipment (PPE), tools, spare parts and accessories; air conditioning, ventilation, heating and refrigeration products under the Selco, Leyland SDM, Chadwicks, MacBlair, Isero, Polvo, Gunters en Meuser, TG Lynes, IKH, and Salvador Escoda brands. It also offers DIY products, paints, lighting, homestyle, housewares, bathroom products, and kitchens, as well as gardening and Christmas products under the Woodie's brand. Further, it manufactures and distributes dry mortars and wooden staircases and windows under the CPI Mortar and StairBox brands. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.2% to 37.1% during 2023–25; it earns 15.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.1%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31/reports/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31.xhtml (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.16555879062549642],[2017,0.20637284427688507],[2018,0.22105519629221113],[2019,0.13311612982307106],[2020,0.11572565024587722],[2021,0.22725465924608787],[2022,0.19896953323636707],[2023,0.13998170708269497],[2024,0.11165284357008314],[2025,0.12066197817515696]]; median 0.15277024885409568. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back GBP 56.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2016: growth capex 22394000; upkeep 38050000; owner earnings 93347000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23990058598562353.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2017: growth capex 37929000; upkeep 43487000; owner earnings 127719000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2969722594132431.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2018: growth capex 24579000; upkeep 48993000; owner earnings 150403000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16342094240141486.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 52434000; owner earnings 72895600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 37075000; owner earnings 84438200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 44443000; owner earnings 187681200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 57840000; owner earnings 175525400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 48816000; owner earnings 140098400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 46846000; owner earnings 129159400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31/reports/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31.xhtml (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 36981000; owner earnings 171062400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,30048000],[2017,33708000],[2018,38598000],[2019,43986000],[2020,0],[2021,84921000],[2022,73868000],[2023,72569000],[2024,73190000],[2025,72593999]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31/reports/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31.xhtml (filed 2026-09-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 56724999 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 11.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GFTU.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 11.875 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.06435868884754908. Price 979.3; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.4128127031056851 → FY2025 0.8873644928460938. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 497.30 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 530.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 550.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 584.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 630.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 715.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 745.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 776.50 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 705.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 768.50 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 786.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 831.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 822.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 772.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 802.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 790.50 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 765.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 770.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 752.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 758.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 796.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 766.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 768.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 757.50 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 724.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 708.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 643.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 734.50 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 799.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 809.50 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 882.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 850.50 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 806.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 727.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 752.50 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 760.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 781.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 838.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 867.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 920.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 862.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 531.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 635.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 625.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 660.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 643.50 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 779.50 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 675.50 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 672.50 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 851.50 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 922.50 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 866.50 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 989.50 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 1,024.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 1,193.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 1,176.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 1,147.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 1,285.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 1,397.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 1,275.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 1,341.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 1,166.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 1,233.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 1,152.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 1,084.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 982.50 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 979.80 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 937.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 776.80 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 845.20 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 722.70 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 671.80 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 690.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 778.30 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 788.60 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 918.70 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 950.60 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 885.60 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 866.80 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 815.80 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 781.70 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 875.90 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 862.50 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 904.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 771.10 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 809.20 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 911.10 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 971.90 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 977.30 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 1,002.20 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 946.60 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 993.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 928.30 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 1,080.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 1,079.40 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 1,040.80 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 1,001.60 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 941.70 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 959.70 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 929.70 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 833.60 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 859.10 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 907.70 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 1,010.60 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 1,022.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 890.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 874.10 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 911.90 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 952.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 945.40 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 936.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 935.20 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 989.80 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 899.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 875.60 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 830.10 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 900.80 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 965.70 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 1,041.80 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 979.20 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 979.30 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 563.90 per share, central GBX 630.09 per share, high GBX 718.21 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 663.53 per share, central GBX 745.54 per share, high GBX 854.71 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 661.46 per share, central GBX 735.59 per share, high GBX 834.29 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 596.94 per share, central GBX 655.83 per share, high GBX 734.23 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 786.30 per share, central GBX 848.61 per share, high GBX 931.56 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 851.84 per share, central GBX 929.13 per share, high GBX 1,032.03 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 989.05 per share, central GBX 1,089.99 per share, high GBX 1,224.36 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 988.73 per share, central GBX 1,092.97 per share, high GBX 1,231.74 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 1,200.94 per share, central GBX 1,334.67 per share, high GBX 1,512.69 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:45:53.575Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31/reports/635400BE9SBAG61DJ963-2025-12-31.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-09-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations