# Greencore Group (GNC.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GNC.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:39:25.756Z. Financial observations: FY2011–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 273.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 88.74 per share, central GBX 98.25 per share, high GBX 110.89 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 98.25 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:39:25.756Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.1% at the stated quote. About 5.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.38×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 21.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 32.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 55.4%

- FY2017: 10.0%

- FY2018: 4.3%

- FY2019: 55.1%

- FY2020: 9.0%

- FY2021: 18.3%

- FY2022: 17.3%

- FY2023: 24.8%

- FY2024: 32.4%

- FY2025: 42.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.22×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 240M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 198M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -24.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -1.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.20×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 1.38×

- FY2024: 1.45×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.0% vs 32.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.09 to 0.10 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP -205M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 324M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 1.3%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.01

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.09

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.10

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.07

- Average buyback yield: 9.4%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 628M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 324M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 32.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.09

- FY2017: GBP 0.02

- FY2018: GBP 0.05

- FY2019: GBP 0.08

- FY2020: GBP -0.02

- FY2021: GBP 0.05

- FY2022: GBP 0.06

- FY2023: GBP 0.07

- FY2024: GBP 0.10

- FY2025: GBP 0.13

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.12×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.88×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.92×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.4%

- FY2017: -5.2%

- FY2018: -4.8%

- FY2019: -3.7%

- FY2020: -0.9%

- FY2021: -6.0%

- FY2022: -4.5%

- FY2023: -4.9%

- FY2024: -5.5%

- FY2025: -8.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.8% a year for ten years · "Greencore ups profit forecast on volume growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +7.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.774Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.8% a year for ten years

- 2026-07-22: Greencore ups profit forecast on volume growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/greencore-ups-profit-forecast-volume-130931069.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +7.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400GGBEWULJXM5868/2025-09-26/ESEF/GB/0/635400GGBEWULJXM5868-2025-09-26/reports/635400GGBEWULJXM5868-2025-09-26-T01.xhtml; observed 2025-12-03.

- FY2016: GBP 1.5B 

- FY2017: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.5B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.3B 

- FY2021: GBP 1.3B 

- FY2022: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2025: GBP 1.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 32.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/635400GGBEWULJXM5868/2025-09-26/ESEF/GB/0/635400GGBEWULJXM5868-2025-09-26/reports/635400GGBEWULJXM5868-2025-09-26-T01.xhtml; observed 2025-12-03.

- FY2016: 31.9% 

- FY2017: 27.0% 

- FY2018: 31.7% 

- FY2019: 32.8% 

- FY2020: 32.0% 

- FY2021: 31.9% 

- FY2022: 30.1% 

- FY2023: 29.7% 

- FY2024: 33.2% 

- FY2025: 32.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are GBP 1.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2025: revenue 1947000000; grossProfit 632500000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GNC.LSE: Greencore Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells convenience food products in the United Kingdom and Ireland. The company offers sandwiches, salads, sushi, chilled snacking, chilled ready meals, chilled soups and sauces, chilled quiche, ambient sauces and pickles, and frozen Yorkshire Puddings. It is also involved in the finance activities; pension funding; food processor; and property business. The company supplies its products to supermarkets, convenience and travel retail outlets, discounters, coffee shops, foodservice, and other retailers. Greencore Group plc was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.7% to 33.2% during 2023–25; it earns 21.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 29.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 33.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5540044085231447],[2017,0.09983633387888707],[2018,0.042543670520466356],[2019,0.5505122143420015],[2020,0.08958420831583368],[2021,0.18275707378669812],[2022,0.17314562163808395],[2023,0.24785037343877492],[2024,0.3239656868237901],[2025,0.42936583423654584]]; median 0.21530372361273653. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 6 of 10 years; bought back GBP 19.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2016: growth capex 29910541.465572625; upkeep 73189458.53442737; owner earnings 19810541.465572625. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5098295782350066.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2017: growth capex 54500000; upkeep 68800000; owner earnings 12200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.467213114754099.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 63500000; owner earnings 42900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 44200000; owner earnings 36600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 31900000; owner earnings 1560000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 40200000; owner earnings 30480000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 50000000; owner earnings 31900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 37400000; owner earnings 49600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 32400000; owner earnings 67220000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 43400000; owner earnings 61040000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); Dividend observations: [[2016,19100000],[2017,16500000],[2018,35700000],[2019,50300000],[2020,16700000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,8900000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); FY2025: cash repurchases 19800000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 21.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GNC.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 21.664 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-03); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21511878181564448. Price 273.2; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.03446334062238101 → FY2025 0.13511614033573174. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 271.39 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 239.31 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 246.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 236.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 259.60 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 245.80 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 228.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 241.50 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 246.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 223.80 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 205.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 196.20 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 192.80 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 210.10 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 229.70 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 194.50 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 177.55 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 132.55 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 158.75 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 182.70 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 185.90 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 177.30 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 174.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 185.10 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 189.20 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 188.10 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 178.20 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 193.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 196.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 202.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 230.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 206.50 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 219.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 213.80 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 209.90 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 226.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 232.40 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 242.90 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 267.90 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 245.60 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 209.30 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 164.95 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 182.20 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 135.30 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 125.80 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 127.90 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 125.70 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 98.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 90.45 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 117.10 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 116.50 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 116.40 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 151.90 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 157.20 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 158.70 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 140.90 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 125.60 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 130.50 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 142.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 141.20 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 129.20 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 125.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 129.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 123.50 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 133.60 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 128.50 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 114.60 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 109.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 99.30 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 100.60 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 85.05 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 72.20 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 67.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 64.40 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 64.15 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 79.85 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 81.45 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 81.25 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 85.75 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 80.15 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 73.10 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 87.70 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 84.25 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 75.90 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 89.85 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 98.95 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 96.45 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 102.40 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 102.20 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 119.30 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 131.80 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 175.40 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 166.40 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 180.20 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 186.80 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 184.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 208.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 198.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 193.80 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 194.20 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 194.20 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 169.20 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 185.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 223.50 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 233.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 257.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 249.50 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 228.50 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 238.50 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 240.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 254.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 289.50 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 270.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 242.50 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 251.60 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 203.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 198.90 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 260.40 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 266.80 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 254.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 273.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 97.85 per share, central GBX 111.34 per share, high GBX 129.30 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 55.00 per share, central GBX 62.59 per share, high GBX 72.68 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 32.83 per share, central GBX 37.22 per share, high GBX 43.06 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 43.03 per share, central GBX 48.63 per share, high GBX 56.09 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 80.17 per share, central GBX 84.96 per share, high GBX 91.34 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 80.03 per share, central GBX 88.67 per share, high GBX 100.16 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 94.42 per share, central GBX 105.76 per share, high GBX 120.85 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 105.17 per share, central GBX 117.64 per share, high GBX 134.25 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 103.72 per share, central GBX 120.12 per share, high GBX 138.95 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 131.58 per share, central GBX 148.42 per share, high GBX 170.83 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/635400GGBEWULJXM5868/2025-09-26/ESEF/GB/0/635400GGBEWULJXM5868-2025-09-26/reports/635400GGBEWULJXM5868-2025-09-26-T01.xhtml); period 2025-09-26, filed 2025-12-03.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations