# Grifols (GRF.MC) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GRF.MC Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:27.051Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025. Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: EUR 10.09 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low EUR 2.76 per share, central EUR 3.08 per share, high EUR 3.51 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 3.08 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:27.051Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 4.9% at the stated quote. About 4.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; ES 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 1 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.25× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 0.23× - FY2017: 0.23× - FY2018: 0.22× - FY2019: 0.22× - FY2020: 0.19× - FY2021: 0.12× - FY2022: 0.13× - FY2023: 0.11× - FY2024: 0.17× - FY2025: 0.16× ### moat: fail - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - Recent gross margin fell 5.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp) - ROIC, median of available years: 13.3% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.0% - Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.3 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.0% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.7% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 6.6% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.9% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 17.6% - FY2017: 22.9% - FY2018: 20.3% - FY2019: 22.7% - FY2020: 12.6% - FY2021: 6.7% - FY2022: 7.3% - FY2023: 7.0% - FY2024: 10.2% - FY2025: 14.0% ### economics: fail - owner earnings cash conversion below threshold - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.54× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 590M - Net income, five-year total: EUR 1.1B - Return on incremental invested capital: 14.6% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.4 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 48.1% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: 0.51× - FY2022: 0.37× - FY2023: -0.21× - FY2024: 0.89× - FY2025: 0.62× ### management: fail - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years) - potential debt-funded buybacks (informational) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.3% vs 10.2% - Per-share earnings: 0.81 to 0.23 (three-year endpoint medians) - per-share value declined or ends nonpositive - acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1% - Market cap gain: EUR -5.4B - Cumulative retained earnings: EUR -123M - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025 - Per-share value growth: -14.5% - Per-share value change: EUR -0.58 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 0.81 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.23 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40 - Average buyback yield: 0.7% - Buyback history: 4 years - Debt-funded buybacks: Yes - Acquisition spending: EUR 6.0B - Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 4.1B - ROIC, first three-year median: 20.3% - ROIC, last three-year median: 10.2% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: EUR 0.81 - FY2017: EUR 0.97 - FY2018: EUR 0.87 - FY2019: EUR 0.91 - FY2020: EUR 0.91 - FY2021: EUR 0.39 - FY2022: EUR 0.31 - FY2023: EUR 0.09 - FY2024: EUR 0.23 - FY2025: EUR 0.58 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -3.3% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 2.61× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.81× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -0.1% - FY2017: -1.6% - FY2018: -1.1% - FY2019: 0.4% - FY2020: -3.2% - FY2021: -1.7% - FY2022: 1.0% - FY2023: -0.7% - FY2024: -3.5% - FY2025: -3.3% ## Holders ## Price story Down 49% since Oct 2021 · "A continued increase in demand for plasma products could lead to industry supply constraints." (SEC filing, Apr 2026) · sales +4.3% Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.492Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 17.4% a year for ten years - 2025-07-30: Grifols tops earnings, revenue estimates despite foreign-exchange headwinds ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/grifols-tops-earnings-revenue-estimates-105703389.html)) ### Sales · FY2024–2025 sales +4.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es/reports/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08. - FY2016: EUR 4.0B - FY2017: EUR 4.3B - FY2018: EUR 4.5B - FY2019: EUR 5.1B - FY2020: EUR 5.3B - FY2021: EUR 4.9B - FY2022: EUR 6.1B - FY2023: EUR 6.6B - FY2024: EUR 7.2B - FY2025: EUR 7.5B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 35.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es/reports/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08. - FY2016: 47.2% - FY2017: 49.8% - FY2018: 45.7% - FY2019: 45.9% - FY2020: 42.2% - FY2021: 39.8% - FY2022: 36.8% - FY2023: 37.8% - FY2024: 39.5% - FY2025: 35.7% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in drug manufacturers general; annual sales are EUR 7.5 billion. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: revenue 7524204000; grossProfit 2686000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 35.7% to 39.5% during 2023–25; it earns 13.3% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 37.8%. - Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es/reports/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39.5%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.7%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.17644876077876803],[2017,0.22907789148299268],[2018,0.202843900126141],[2019,0.22722532065433435],[2020,0.12578683278157732],[2021,0.06667665861063093],[2022,0.07306019193370913],[2023,0.07004133305870375],[2024,0.10245647142395645],[2025,0.14008108678452458]]; median 0.13293395978305095. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back EUR 129 million of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2016: growth capex 42013840.15865061; upkeep 250676159.8413494; owner earnings 496648840.15865064. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08459466077728. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2017: growth capex 103057305.33080935; upkeep 219915694.66919065; owner earnings 658274305.3308094. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15655677959208647. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2018: growth capex 69132209.64157557; upkeep 238589790.35842443; owner earnings 586661209.6415756. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11784008982597016. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2019: growth capex 109850000; upkeep 302455000; owner earnings 477008000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2302896387481971. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2020: growth capex 41027000; upkeep 321533000; owner earnings 471846200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0869499425872244. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 315088000; owner earnings 135261200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 375560000; owner earnings 76861346.56163101. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es/reports/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 232538000; owner earnings 140097440.97440863. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 423000000; owner earnings 249654068. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Dividend observations: [[2016,216151000],[2017,218260000],[2018,278841000],[2019,238740000],[2020,113230000],[2021,258946000],[2022,592000],[2023,0],[2024,962000],[2025,128000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: cash repurchases 129000000 EUR. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 31.2% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GRF.MC SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 31.194 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What could break it Risks Relating to the Healthcare Industry: ● United States Healthcare Reform may adversely affect our business. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1438569/000110465926044901/grfs-20251231x20f.htm (filed 2026-04-17); Moreover, we may not be able to commercialize products in development; ● Our ability to continue manufacturing and distributing our products depends on our continued adherence to cGMP regulations at our facilities; ● A significant disruption in our supply of plasma, including as a result of macroeconomic conditions, pandemics or changes in immigration policies and enforcement could have a material adverse effect on our business and our growth plans; ● Disruption of the operations of our plasma collection centers would cause us to become supply-constrained and our financial performance would suffer; ● A significant portion of our net revenue has historically been derived from sales of our immunoglobulin (“IG”) products and we expect that they will continue to comprise a significant portion of our sales. Risks Relating to the Healthcare Industry: ● United States Healthcare Reform may adversely affect our business; ● Government pressures and constraints on reimbursement may adversely affect our business; ● Impact of government regulations relating to product development and regulatory approvals, as well as government pressures and constraints on reimbursement may adversely affect our business; ● Failure to comply with laws and regulations governing the sales and marketing of our products or an adverse decision in lawsuits may result in adverse consequences for us; ● We could be adversely affected if other government or private third-party payors decrease or otherwise limit the amount, price, scope or other eligibility requirements for reimbursement for the purchasers of our products; ● We are subject to extensive government regulatory compliance and ethics oversight; ● Failure to comply with changing regulatory requirements could materially adversely affect our business; ● We are subject to extensive environmental, health and safety laws and regulations; and ● Unsuccessful management of sustainability (environmental, social and governance) matters could adversely affect our reputation, and we may experience difficulties meeting the expectations of our stakeholders. 4 Table of Contents Risks Relating to Our Shares and American Depositary Shares: ● If we discover material weaknesses or significant deficiencies in our internal control over financial reporting, it may adversely affect our ability to provide timely and reliable financial information and satisfy our reporting obligations under U.S. federal securities laws, which also could affect the market price of our American Depositary Shares or our ability to remain listed on NASDAQ; ● The Grifols Family may exercise significant influence over the conduct of our business; ● The market price of our Class B ADSs on NASDAQ, as well as the market price of our Class A ADSs traded in over the counter markets, may be volatile; ● Techniques employed by short sellers or other market disruptors may drive down the market price of our shares, negatively impact our business operations and/or generate non-meritorious litigation; ● Fluctuations in the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro may increase the risk of holding our ADSs or shares; ● Subscription (or preemptive) rights may be unavailable to U.S. holders of our shares or ADSs; and ● ADS holders may be subject to limitations on the transfer of their ADSs. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 17.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 3.8%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.23899081965342417. Price 10.09; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.533000903907294 → FY2025 0.3630080510427678. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share) - 2016-10: EUR 18.01 per share - 2016-11: EUR 18.50 per share - 2016-12: EUR 18.88 per share - 2017-01: EUR 19.82 per share - 2017-02: EUR 20.65 per share - 2017-03: EUR 22.99 per share - 2017-04: EUR 24.66 per share - 2017-05: EUR 25.19 per share - 2017-06: EUR 24.39 per share - 2017-07: EUR 23.76 per share - 2017-08: EUR 23.75 per share - 2017-09: EUR 24.65 per share - 2017-10: EUR 26.88 per share - 2017-11: EUR 24.51 per share - 2017-12: EUR 24.43 per share - 2018-01: EUR 25.91 per share - 2018-02: EUR 22.58 per share - 2018-03: EUR 23.01 per share - 2018-04: EUR 23.35 per share - 2018-05: EUR 25.20 per share - 2018-06: EUR 25.78 per share - 2018-07: EUR 24.85 per share - 2018-08: EUR 25.33 per share - 2018-09: EUR 24.26 per share - 2018-10: EUR 25.19 per share - 2018-11: EUR 24.76 per share - 2018-12: EUR 22.90 per share - 2019-01: EUR 22.75 per share - 2019-02: EUR 22.86 per share - 2019-03: EUR 24.96 per share - 2019-04: EUR 24.74 per share - 2019-05: EUR 22.98 per share - 2019-06: EUR 26.00 per share - 2019-07: EUR 29.30 per share - 2019-08: EUR 28.80 per share - 2019-09: EUR 27.04 per share - 2019-10: EUR 28.88 per share - 2019-11: EUR 31.01 per share - 2019-12: EUR 31.43 per share - 2020-01: EUR 30.30 per share - 2020-02: EUR 29.00 per share - 2020-03: EUR 31.00 per share - 2020-04: EUR 31.06 per share - 2020-05: EUR 28.12 per share - 2020-06: EUR 27.03 per share - 2020-07: EUR 24.70 per share - 2020-08: EUR 22.71 per share - 2020-09: EUR 24.59 per share - 2020-10: EUR 23.19 per share - 2020-11: EUR 23.75 per share - 2020-12: EUR 23.88 per share - 2021-01: EUR 24.30 per share - 2021-02: EUR 20.82 per share - 2021-03: EUR 22.33 per share - 2021-04: EUR 22.55 per share - 2021-05: EUR 22.83 per share - 2021-06: EUR 22.84 per share - 2021-07: EUR 21.44 per share - 2021-08: EUR 20.69 per share - 2021-09: EUR 21.08 per share - 2021-10: EUR 19.80 per share - 2021-11: EUR 15.83 per share - 2021-12: EUR 16.88 per share - 2022-01: EUR 15.61 per share - 2022-02: EUR 17.02 per share - 2022-03: EUR 16.48 per share - 2022-04: EUR 16.00 per share - 2022-05: EUR 19.59 per share - 2022-06: EUR 18.04 per share - 2022-07: EUR 14.22 per share - 2022-08: EUR 12.05 per share - 2022-09: EUR 8.88 per share - 2022-10: EUR 8.61 per share - 2022-11: EUR 10.16 per share - 2022-12: EUR 10.77 per share - 2023-01: EUR 12.13 per share - 2023-02: EUR 11.54 per share - 2023-03: EUR 9.11 per share - 2023-04: EUR 9.32 per share - 2023-05: EUR 10.85 per share - 2023-06: EUR 11.74 per share - 2023-07: EUR 13.35 per share - 2023-08: EUR 12.65 per share - 2023-09: EUR 12.30 per share - 2023-10: EUR 10.59 per share - 2023-11: EUR 12.97 per share - 2023-12: EUR 15.46 per share - 2024-01: EUR 10.15 per share - 2024-02: EUR 7.58 per share - 2024-03: EUR 8.34 per share - 2024-04: EUR 8.65 per share - 2024-05: EUR 9.33 per share - 2024-06: EUR 7.86 per share - 2024-07: EUR 9.30 per share - 2024-08: EUR 10.02 per share - 2024-09: EUR 10.23 per share - 2024-10: EUR 10.25 per share - 2024-11: EUR 8.62 per share - 2024-12: EUR 9.15 per share - 2025-01: EUR 8.30 per share - 2025-02: EUR 10.62 per share - 2025-03: EUR 8.20 per share - 2025-04: EUR 8.29 per share - 2025-05: EUR 9.47 per share - 2025-06: EUR 10.35 per share - 2025-07: EUR 13.12 per share - 2025-08: EUR 12.07 per share - 2025-09: EUR 12.33 per share - 2025-10: EUR 11.24 per share - 2025-11: EUR 10.53 per share - 2025-12: EUR 10.70 per share - 2026-01: EUR 10.79 per share - 2026-02: EUR 10.63 per share - 2026-03: EUR 8.96 per share - 2026-04: EUR 8.96 per share - 2026-05: EUR 9.28 per share - 2026-06: EUR 8.96 per share - 2026-07: EUR 9.96 per share - 2026-08: EUR 9.83 per share - 2026-09: EUR 9.55 per share - 2026-10: EUR 10.09 per share ## Annual estimated value (EUR per share) - FY2016: low EUR 11.03 per share, central EUR 14.97 per share, high EUR 17.36 per share - FY2017: low EUR 11.67 per share, central EUR 15.71 per share, high EUR 18.22 per share - FY2018: low EUR 12.52 per share, central EUR 16.57 per share, high EUR 19.19 per share - FY2019: low EUR 15.59 per share, central EUR 20.57 per share, high EUR 23.55 per share - FY2020: low EUR 13.30 per share, central EUR 18.09 per share, high EUR 21.09 per share - FY2021: low EUR 12.06 per share, central EUR 14.29 per share, high EUR 16.05 per share - FY2022: low EUR 9.16 per share, central EUR 10.35 per share, high EUR 11.94 per share - FY2023: low EUR 3.56 per share, central EUR 4.10 per share, high EUR 4.68 per share - FY2024: low EUR 3.18 per share, central EUR 3.49 per share, high EUR 3.91 per share - FY2025: low EUR 3.11 per share, central EUR 3.43 per share, high EUR 3.86 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:15.666Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es/reports/959800HSSNXWRKBK4N60-20241231-es.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-05-08. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights. ## Reported holder observations