# Grainger (GRI.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GRI.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:37.900Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 176.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 183.75 per share, central GBX 206.38 per share, high GBX 236.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 206.38 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:41:37.900Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.4% at the stated quote. About 11.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.36×

- FY2017: 0.32×

- FY2018: 0.38×

- FY2019: 0.47×

- FY2020: 0.48×

- FY2021: 0.44×

- FY2022: 0.43×

- FY2023: 0.47×

- FY2024: 0.42×

- FY2025: 0.49×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 58.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 59.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.9%

- FY2017: 4.6%

- FY2018: 5.3%

- FY2019: 4.0%

- FY2020: 3.5%

- FY2021: 3.0%

- FY2022: 2.9%

- FY2023: 3.6%

- FY2024: 2.7%

- FY2025: 3.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 587M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 598M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -34.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -241.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 137.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.75×

- FY2024: 0.87×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.9% vs 3.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.10 to 0.04 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Market cap gain: GBP -545M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 555M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -10.3%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.06

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.10

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.04

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.03

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 12M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.10

- FY2017: GBP 0.10

- FY2018: GBP 0.12

- FY2019: GBP 0.19

- FY2020: GBP 0.12

- FY2021: GBP 0.16

- FY2022: GBP 0.34

- FY2023: GBP 0.03

- FY2024: GBP 0.04

- FY2025: GBP 0.27

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 2.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.76×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.60×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.3%

- FY2017: 1.7%

- FY2018: -2.1%

- FY2019: -2.6%

- FY2020: -0.3%

- FY2021: -1.2%

- FY2022: 3.6%

- FY2023: -4.3%

- FY2024: -2.8%

- FY2025: 2.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 44% since Dec 2021 · sales -9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.021Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30/reports/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-07-21.

- FY2016: GBP 220M 

- FY2017: GBP 265M 

- FY2018: GBP 271M 

- FY2019: GBP 223M 

- FY2020: GBP 219M 

- FY2021: GBP 256M 

- FY2022: GBP 285M 

- FY2023: GBP 272M 

- FY2024: GBP 285M 

- FY2025: GBP 259M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 63.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30/reports/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-07-21.

- FY2016: 52.1% 

- FY2017: 45.0% 

- FY2018: 48.8% 

- FY2019: 60.4% 

- FY2020: 67.5% 

- FY2021: 59.2% 

- FY2022: 56.5% 

- FY2023: 59.2% 

- FY2024: 57.0% 

- FY2025: 63.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in real estate services; annual sales are GBP 258.9 million.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30/reports/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-07-21); FY2025: revenue 258900000; grossProfit 164800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 57% to 63.7% during 2023–25; it earns 3.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 59.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 57%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30/reports/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-07-21); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 63.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0489660594614607],[2017,0.046026582296744945],[2018,0.053402732595966174],[2019,0.03994917515916955],[2020,0.0354474449897052],[2021,0.02953645936616409],[2022,0.029195485665417655],[2023,0.035829688639761555],[2024,0.0269159872817049],[2025,0.03605227579990987]]; median 0.035940982219835715. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 100000 of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 600000; owner earnings 74800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 800000; owner earnings 74800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2018: growth capex 2000000; upkeep 900000; owner earnings 87400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02288329519450801.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 7900000; owner earnings 108500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 12300000; owner earnings 71260000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 300000; owner earnings 110140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2022: growth capex 2800000; upkeep 900000; owner earnings 228800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.012237762237762238.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 6100000; owner earnings 19180000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); FY2024: growth capex 253394.76289393753; upkeep 4046605.2371060625; owner earnings 27253394.762893938. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009297732084332473.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30/reports/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-07-21); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1400000; owner earnings 201640000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); Dividend observations: [[2016,14700000],[2017,19300000],[2018,20800000],[2019,25200000],[2020,33500000],[2021,36800000],[2022,40000000],[2023,45700000],[2024,51000000],[2025,58100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30/reports/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-07-21); FY2025: cash repurchases 100000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GRI.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.614 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 16.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-21); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03129223487545735. Price 176.2; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.05764695653770489 → FY2025 0.271344164223237. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 221.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 225.30 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 237.80 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 238.40 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 253.30 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 246.10 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 249.90 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 270.30 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 263.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 262.70 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 255.40 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 268.20 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 278.40 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 281.20 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 289.50 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 288.60 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 273.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 289.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 313.40 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 305.60 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 308.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 306.40 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 307.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 300.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 271.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 253.20 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 209.80 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 228.40 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 247.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 236.60 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 252.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 251.20 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 245.60 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 227.40 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 244.20 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 246.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 256.80 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 283.60 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 313.20 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 296.20 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 296.40 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 259.20 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 267.20 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 287.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 286.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 290.20 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 313.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 297.20 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 279.60 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 282.40 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 283.60 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 266.80 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 268.80 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 266.80 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 285.60 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 285.40 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 285.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 303.40 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 319.40 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 305.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 308.80 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 298.20 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 315.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 299.80 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 281.80 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 292.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 296.60 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 309.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 281.20 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 296.20 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 268.20 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 229.40 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 227.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 242.60 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 252.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 259.60 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 254.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 233.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 258.60 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 248.40 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 227.20 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 251.80 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 236.20 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 233.60 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 227.40 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 254.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 264.40 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 263.20 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 249.20 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 257.80 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 256.50 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 250.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 243.50 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 241.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 239.50 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 245.50 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 227.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 234.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 225.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 213.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 207.50 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 203.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 215.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 222.50 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 220.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 205.50 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 194.20 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 194.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 187.40 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 185.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 182.20 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 194.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 192.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 162.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 160.30 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 158.10 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 169.70 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 174.50 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 173.70 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 167.20 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 176.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 83.41 per share, central GBX 93.30 per share, high GBX 106.47 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 121.66 per share, central GBX 136.88 per share, high GBX 157.14 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 143.00 per share, central GBX 160.78 per share, high GBX 184.45 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 158.89 per share, central GBX 176.62 per share, high GBX 200.24 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 169.98 per share, central GBX 185.94 per share, high GBX 207.19 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 178.95 per share, central GBX 197.32 per share, high GBX 221.77 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 197.04 per share, central GBX 224.21 per share, high GBX 260.37 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 187.44 per share, central GBX 211.14 per share, high GBX 242.69 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 147.86 per share, central GBX 166.63 per share, high GBX 191.60 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 174.62 per share, central GBX 197.20 per share, high GBX 227.26 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:47:29.188Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30/reports/2138007CEIRKZMNI2979-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml); period 2025-09-30, filed 2026-07-21.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations