# Hilton Food Group (HFG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HFG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:44:38.797Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 710.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 84.51 per share, central GBX 88.89 per share, high GBX 94.73 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 88.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:44:38.797Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.4% at the stated quote. About 3.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.03×

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 11.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 45.4%

- FY2017: 30.0%

- FY2018: 20.9%

- FY2019: 9.4%

- FY2020: 9.7%

- FY2021: 9.4%

- FY2022: 5.3%

- FY2023: 11.3%

- FY2024: 11.8%

- FY2025: 8.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.12×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 21M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 178M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.2%

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.7 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: -0.03×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 0.32 to 0.43 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Market cap gain: GBP -7.2M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 134M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.8%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.11

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.32

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.43

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.60

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 333M

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.3%

- Acquisition spending: GBP 236M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 30.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.33

- FY2017: GBP 0.32

- FY2018: GBP 0.39

- FY2019: GBP 0.40

- FY2020: GBP 0.48

- FY2021: GBP 0.44

- FY2022: GBP 0.20

- FY2023: GBP 0.40

- FY2024: GBP 0.43

- FY2025: GBP 0.53

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.46×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.32×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.8%

- FY2017: -5.0%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -4.1%

- FY2020: -4.9%

- FY2021: -4.2%

- FY2022: -3.2%

- FY2023: -10.1%

- FY2024: -6.9%

- FY2025: -1.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 43% since Mar 2022 · "Hilton Food cuts full-year profit forecast, warns of “difficult” 2026" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +5.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.107Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 39.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-11: Hilton Food cuts full-year profit forecast, warns of “difficult” 2026 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hilton-food-cuts-full-profit-134450452.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +5.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800JY7VJFS2OOX355/2025-12-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800JY7VJFS2OOX355-2025-12-28/reports/213800JY7VJFS2OOX355-2025-12-28-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-21.

- FY2016: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2017: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2020: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2021: GBP 3.3B 

- FY2022: GBP 3.8B 

- FY2023: GBP 4.0B 

- FY2024: GBP 4.0B 

- FY2025: GBP 4.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 8.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800JY7VJFS2OOX355/2025-12-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800JY7VJFS2OOX355-2025-12-28/reports/213800JY7VJFS2OOX355-2025-12-28-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-21.

- FY2016: 12.2% 

- FY2017: 11.9% 

- FY2018: 12.7% 

- FY2019: 11.2% 

- FY2020: 9.4% 

- FY2021: 8.9% 

- FY2022: 7.7% 

- FY2023: 10.8% 

- FY2024: 11.5% 

- FY2025: 8.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are GBP 4.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2025: revenue 4214600000; grossProfit 359400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HFG.LSE: Hilton Food Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the multi-protein food business. The company offers meat products; seafood products, such as smoked salmon, wet fish, shellfish, coated fish, and fish cakes; vegan and vegetarian food, including meat-free replacement burgers, meatballs, cutlets, poultry, kievs, steaks, rashers, and seafood and sticks; and straight-to-oven trays, ready meals, soups, sandwiches, and wraps. It also provides supply chain services comprising warehouse automation, logistics, and other value-adding services. The company supplies its products for international food retailers. It operates in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, the Republic of Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Central Europe, and APAC countries. The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Huntingdon, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.5% to 11.5% during 2023–25; it earns 9.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 8.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3001084867109065],[2018,0.20884538273677883],[2019,0.09424432896602637],[2020,0.09721349725275065],[2021,0.09389648885918975],[2022,0.05311034597409831],[2023,0.11345488357298505],[2024,0.11802130085082799],[2025,0.08294614652309244]]; median 0.09721349725275065. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 5.3% on new investment; paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 10456000; owner earnings 33533000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 57366000; owner earnings 2050800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 59618000; owner earnings 8863800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 74600000; owner earnings 2000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2025: growth capex 11600000; upkeep 77200000; owner earnings 8280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4009661835748792.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); Incremental return on capital 0.053039061043168696, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); Dividend observations: [[2017,12948000],[2018,15969000],[2019,17796000],[2020,18321000],[2021,22301000],[2022,25492000],[2023,28279000],[2024,29200000],[2025,31500000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 13.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HFG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 13.806 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 39.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 12.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.5724736640511525. Price 710; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.3441226344705962 → FY2025 0.09210848332480477. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 605.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 585.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 621.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 667.50 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 625.50 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 645.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 769.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 761.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 738.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 675.50 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 770.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 726.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 892.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 825.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 864.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 850.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 820.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 830.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 886.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 912.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 994.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 956.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 914.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 964.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 922.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 916.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 902.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 928.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 930.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 950.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 1,016.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 950.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 968.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 936.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 973.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 994.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 1,016.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 995.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 1,108.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,056.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 1,032.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,080.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 1,120.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 1,270.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 1,264.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,102.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,184.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 1,196.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 1,160.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 1,084.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 1,114.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 1,010.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 1,102.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 1,074.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 1,230.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 1,194.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 1,094.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 1,140.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 1,186.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 1,170.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 1,168.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 1,130.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 1,140.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 1,038.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 1,074.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 1,240.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 1,218.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 1,086.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,022.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 1,104.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 970.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 535.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 610.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 541.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 557.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 662.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 717.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 692.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 678.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 729.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 624.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 646.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 674.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 717.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 653.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 737.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 800.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 786.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 798.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 843.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 916.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 894.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 899.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 934.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 985.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 898.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 900.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 906.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 907.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 884.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 855.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 824.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 889.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 869.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 866.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 850.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 831.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 668.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 644.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 509.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 504.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 470.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 529.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 511.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 538.50 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 514.50 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 515.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 599.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 636.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 719.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 710.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2024: low GBX 59.86 per share, central GBX 63.44 per share, high GBX 67.95 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 105.48 per share, central GBX 109.87 per share, high GBX 115.71 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:50:27.787Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800JY7VJFS2OOX355/2025-12-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800JY7VJFS2OOX355-2025-12-28/reports/213800JY7VJFS2OOX355-2025-12-28-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-28, filed 2026-04-21.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations