# Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HGV

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:01.308Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $36.03 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $99.96 per share, central $127.63 per share, high $148.86 per share. Buy at or below the central value $127.63 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:01.308Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 28.2% at the stated quote. About 28.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.45×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.20×

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.22×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: -0.03×

- FY2021: 0.21×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -23.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 56.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 14.4%

- FY2017: 21.3%

- FY2018: 15.4%

- FY2019: 8.8%

- FY2020: -1.2%

- FY2021: 7.2%

- FY2022: 11.7%

- FY2023: 10.1%

- FY2024: 7.0%

- FY2025: 6.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.72×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $969M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 11.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 107.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.61×

- FY2022: 1.42×

- FY2023: 1.44×

- FY2024: 4.02×

- FY2025: 3.05×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.4% vs 7.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1.76 to 0.89 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.5%

- Market cap gain: $1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $6.0M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -8.2%

- Per-share value change: -$0.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.76

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.89

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.12

- Average buyback yield: 7.5%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.70

- FY2017: $3.28

- FY2018: $3.04

- FY2019: $2.42

- FY2020: -$2.36

- FY2021: $1.74

- FY2022: $2.94

- FY2023: $2.80

- FY2024: $0.46

- FY2025: $0.89

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -1.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 21.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.70×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.84×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.5%

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: 16.6%

- FY2019: 2.3%

- FY2020: -8.9%

- FY2021: 0.1%

- FY2022: -4.9%

- FY2023: 0.0%

- FY2024: -2.3%

- FY2025: -1.9%

## Holders

- [Clifford Sosin](https://gigainvestors.com/CAS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 31% since Jun 2026 · "Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE:HGV) Misses Q2 CY2026 Revenue Estimates, Stock Drops" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +1.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:52.551Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 12.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-13: HGV Q2 Deep Dive: Soft Sales Weigh on Results, Integration and Membership Initiatives Continue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hgv-q2-deep-dive-soft-031112667.html))

- 2025-10-31: HGV Q3 Deep Dive: Investment in Growth Dampens Margins Amid Flat Membership ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hgv-q3-deep-dive-investment-134554151.html))

- 2026-07-30: Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE:HGV) Misses Q2 CY2026 Revenue Estimates, Stock Drops ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hilton-grand-vacations-nyse-hgv-131547561.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674168/000167416826000017/hgv-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $1.6B 

- FY2017: $1.7B 

- FY2018: $2.0B 

- FY2019: $1.8B 

- FY2020: $894M 

- FY2021: $2.3B 

- FY2022: $3.8B 

- FY2023: $4.0B 

- FY2024: $5.0B 

- FY2025: $5.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 56.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674168/000167416826000017/hgv-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 32.8% 

- FY2017: 32.6% 

- FY2018: 34.3% 

- FY2019: 28.7% 

- FY2020: 17.0% 

- FY2021: 36.6% 

- FY2022: 33.2% 

- FY2023: 30.9% 

- FY2024: 56.9% 

- FY2025: 56.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in resorts & casinos; annual sales are USD 5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674168/000167416826000017/hgv-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 5047000000; grossProfit 2861000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.9% to 56.9% during 2023–25; it earns 9.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 30.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 56.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674168/000167416826000017/hgv-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 56.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1440974605353466],[2017,0.21342621912602913],[2018,0.1536987916298261],[2019,0.08822328114363512],[2020,-0.012021739130434783],[2021,0.0722939863063075],[2022,0.11667975879951105],[2023,0.10142939781091927],[2024,0.0701532982347476],[2025,0.05994575045207957]]; median 0.0948263394772772. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 6 of 10 years; bought back USD 600 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 8351341.036815848; upkeep 25648658.96318415; owner earnings 166351341.03681585. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.050203028029498005.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 11874612.384696104; upkeep 35125387.6153039; owner earnings 320874612.3846961. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03700701746531336.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 27000000; upkeep 36000000; owner earnings 298000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09060402684563758.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 63000000; owner earnings 204000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 18000000; owner earnings 284000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 97000000; owner earnings 499000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 75000000; owner earnings 451000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 126000000; owner earnings 189000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674168/000167416826000017/hgv-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 70000000; owner earnings 247090909.0909091. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,1190000000],[2019,3000000],[2020,3000000],[2021,8000000],[2022,7000000],[2023,1104000000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674168/000167416826000017/hgv-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 600000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HGV.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.0580000000000003 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 12.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.18955371163866297. Price 36.03; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.797979797979798 → FY2025 2.700447093889717. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-12: $26.00 per share

- 2017-01: $29.33 per share

- 2017-02: $29.94 per share

- 2017-03: $28.66 per share

- 2017-04: $33.47 per share

- 2017-05: $35.77 per share

- 2017-06: $36.06 per share

- 2017-07: $36.76 per share

- 2017-08: $36.25 per share

- 2017-09: $38.63 per share

- 2017-10: $40.96 per share

- 2017-11: $39.97 per share

- 2017-12: $41.95 per share

- 2018-01: $44.97 per share

- 2018-02: $43.16 per share

- 2018-03: $43.02 per share

- 2018-04: $43.00 per share

- 2018-05: $39.76 per share

- 2018-06: $34.70 per share

- 2018-07: $34.59 per share

- 2018-08: $32.66 per share

- 2018-09: $33.10 per share

- 2018-10: $26.87 per share

- 2018-11: $32.06 per share

- 2018-12: $26.39 per share

- 2019-01: $30.34 per share

- 2019-02: $31.79 per share

- 2019-03: $30.85 per share

- 2019-04: $32.04 per share

- 2019-05: $25.42 per share

- 2019-06: $31.82 per share

- 2019-07: $32.70 per share

- 2019-08: $33.77 per share

- 2019-09: $32.00 per share

- 2019-10: $34.73 per share

- 2019-11: $34.63 per share

- 2019-12: $34.39 per share

- 2020-01: $31.91 per share

- 2020-02: $26.66 per share

- 2020-03: $15.77 per share

- 2020-04: $20.60 per share

- 2020-05: $21.54 per share

- 2020-06: $19.55 per share

- 2020-07: $20.30 per share

- 2020-08: $21.91 per share

- 2020-09: $20.98 per share

- 2020-10: $20.60 per share

- 2020-11: $27.74 per share

- 2020-12: $31.35 per share

- 2021-01: $29.72 per share

- 2021-02: $39.51 per share

- 2021-03: $37.49 per share

- 2021-04: $44.56 per share

- 2021-05: $45.73 per share

- 2021-06: $41.39 per share

- 2021-07: $40.67 per share

- 2021-08: $43.69 per share

- 2021-09: $47.57 per share

- 2021-10: $50.28 per share

- 2021-11: $47.50 per share

- 2021-12: $52.11 per share

- 2022-01: $48.86 per share

- 2022-02: $51.86 per share

- 2022-03: $52.01 per share

- 2022-04: $46.83 per share

- 2022-05: $45.75 per share

- 2022-06: $35.73 per share

- 2022-07: $40.77 per share

- 2022-08: $40.78 per share

- 2022-09: $32.89 per share

- 2022-10: $39.24 per share

- 2022-11: $44.02 per share

- 2022-12: $38.54 per share

- 2023-01: $47.36 per share

- 2023-02: $47.74 per share

- 2023-03: $44.43 per share

- 2023-04: $42.80 per share

- 2023-05: $42.75 per share

- 2023-06: $45.44 per share

- 2023-07: $46.50 per share

- 2023-08: $43.72 per share

- 2023-09: $40.70 per share

- 2023-10: $35.95 per share

- 2023-11: $34.26 per share

- 2023-12: $40.18 per share

- 2024-01: $41.70 per share

- 2024-02: $44.88 per share

- 2024-03: $47.21 per share

- 2024-04: $41.64 per share

- 2024-05: $41.33 per share

- 2024-06: $40.43 per share

- 2024-07: $43.21 per share

- 2024-08: $38.58 per share

- 2024-09: $36.32 per share

- 2024-10: $36.88 per share

- 2024-11: $42.39 per share

- 2024-12: $38.95 per share

- 2025-01: $41.20 per share

- 2025-02: $42.90 per share

- 2025-03: $37.41 per share

- 2025-04: $33.63 per share

- 2025-05: $38.17 per share

- 2025-06: $41.53 per share

- 2025-07: $44.82 per share

- 2025-08: $47.52 per share

- 2025-09: $41.81 per share

- 2025-10: $41.45 per share

- 2025-11: $42.83 per share

- 2025-12: $44.75 per share

- 2026-01: $45.11 per share

- 2026-02: $44.96 per share

- 2026-03: $39.12 per share

- 2026-04: $46.97 per share

- 2026-05: $52.02 per share

- 2026-06: $52.37 per share

- 2026-07: $46.14 per share

- 2026-08: $42.41 per share

- 2026-09: $34.66 per share

- 2026-10: $36.03 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $24.78 per share, central $27.90 per share, high $32.06 per share

- FY2018: low $29.17 per share, central $33.09 per share, high $38.32 per share

- FY2019: low $27.49 per share, central $31.23 per share, high $36.22 per share

- FY2020: low $18.74 per share, central $20.50 per share, high $22.84 per share

- FY2021: low $34.52 per share, central $38.75 per share, high $44.38 per share

- FY2022: low $43.85 per share, central $49.73 per share, high $57.55 per share

- FY2023: low $59.51 per share, central $83.05 per share, high $96.76 per share

- FY2024: low $63.37 per share, central $73.37 per share, high $84.95 per share

- FY2025: low $80.76 per share, central $102.32 per share, high $118.87 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1674168/000167416826000017/hgv-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Clifford Sosin](https://gigainvestors.com/CAS): 5,206,856 HGV shares; USD 272,683,000 reported position value; 14.48% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): 4,189 HGV shares; USD 219,000 reported position value; 0% of portfolio; new; quarter 2026 Q2.

# HGV — Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Held by 2 investors · USD 272,902,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 52.37 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HGV

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Clifford Sosin (https://gigainvestors.com/CAS) | USD 272,683,000 | 15% | reduce -0.63% |
| Bill Ruane (https://gigainvestors.com/RC) | USD 219,000 | 0.0% | new |

## Total held by quarter

- 2018 Q4: USD 29,556,800 · 1 holder · USD 26.39
- 2019 Q1: USD 34,552,000 · 1 holder · USD 30.85
- 2019 Q2: USD 27,622,942 · 1 holder · USD 31.82
- 2019 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2019 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q3: USD 285,420,000 · 1 holder · USD 47.57
- 2021 Q4: USD 402,662,568 · 1 holder · USD 52.11
- 2022 Q1: USD 401,889,852 · 1 holder · USD 52.01
- 2022 Q2: USD 276,091,605 · 1 holder · USD 35.73
- 2022 Q3: USD 254,146,457 · 1 holder · USD 32.89
- 2022 Q4: USD 283,960,022 · 1 holder · USD 38.54
- 2023 Q1: USD 305,210,330 · 1 holder · USD 44.43
- 2023 Q2: USD 307,579,725 · 1 holder · USD 45.44
- 2023 Q3: USD 275,495,044 · 1 holder · USD 40.70
- 2023 Q4: USD 271,975,206 · 1 holder · USD 40.18
- 2024 Q1: USD 304,346,866 · 1 holder · USD 47.21
- 2024 Q2: USD 260,638,504 · 1 holder · USD 40.43
- 2024 Q3: USD 231,104,560 · 1 holder · USD 36.32
- 2024 Q4: USD 252,876,799 · 1 holder · USD 38.95
- 2025 Q1: USD 213,859,540 · 1 holder · USD 37.41
- 2025 Q2: USD 235,051,619 · 1 holder · USD 41.53
- 2025 Q3: USD 235,966,275 · 1 holder · USD 41.81
- 2025 Q4: USD 237,952,755 · 1 holder · USD 44.75
- 2026 Q1: USD 204,984,536 · 1 holder · USD 39.12
- 2026 Q2: USD 272,902,000 · 2 holders · USD 52.37