# Howden Joinery Group (HWDN.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HWDN.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:13.377Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 776.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 358.44 per share, central GBX 400.35 per share, high GBX 456.14 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 400.35 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:13.377Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.3% at the stated quote. About 6.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.18×

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.15×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 30.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 17.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 61.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 61.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 71.8%

- FY2017: 68.9%

- FY2018: 56.5%

- FY2019: 60.8%

- FY2020: 15.9%

- FY2021: 30.2%

- FY2022: 31.5%

- FY2023: 19.3%

- FY2024: 17.7%

- FY2025: 18.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.61×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 890M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 1.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 1084.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 16.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.72×

- FY2022: 0.64×

- FY2023: 0.55×

- FY2024: 0.58×

- FY2025: 0.52×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 68.9% vs 18.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.31 to 0.46 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Market cap gain: GBP 2.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 727M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.1%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.15

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.31

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.46

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.92

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 65M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 2.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 68.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.31

- FY2017: GBP 0.31

- FY2018: GBP 0.31

- FY2019: GBP 0.35

- FY2020: GBP 0.25

- FY2021: GBP 0.53

- FY2022: GBP 0.66

- FY2023: GBP 0.46

- FY2024: GBP 0.45

- FY2025: GBP 0.50

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.83×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.86×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.9%

- FY2017: 1.0%

- FY2018: 3.1%

- FY2019: -1.3%

- FY2020: -10.8%

- FY2021: -6.0%

- FY2022: -1.0%

- FY2023: -5.7%

- FY2024: -6.7%

- FY2025: -9.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.2% a year for ten years · sales +4.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.855Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45/2025-12-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27/reports/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2016: GBP 1.3B 

- FY2017: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.5B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.5B 

- FY2021: GBP 2.1B 

- FY2022: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2023: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2024: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 62.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45/2025-12-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27/reports/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2016: 64.2% 

- FY2017: 63.3% 

- FY2018: 61.7% 

- FY2019: 61.9% 

- FY2020: 60.1% 

- FY2021: 61.6% 

- FY2022: 60.9% 

- FY2023: 60.8% 

- FY2024: 61.6% 

- FY2025: 62.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in furnishings, fixtures & appliances; annual sales are GBP 2.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: revenue 2418000000; grossProfit 1515400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 60.8% to 62.7% during 2023–25; it earns 30.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 60.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 61.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 62.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.7177861936736696],[2017,0.6894466788813743],[2018,0.5653400059684123],[2019,0.6082961496373831],[2020,0.15901644770731463],[2021,0.30173733363846555],[2022,0.3147790783434706],[2023,0.19331162366915822],[2024,0.17729525036503663],[2025,0.18142002188118053]]; median 0.3082582059909681. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 61% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45/2025-12-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27/reports/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.615656493289392],[2022,0.6085381630012937],[2023,0.6075122246743693]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 100.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2016: growth capex 9432207.84691225; upkeep 54067792.15308775; owner earnings 155532207.84691226. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.060644724185978334.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2017: growth capex 11114994.022628069; upkeep 37385005.97737193; owner earnings 175614994.02262807. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0632918281521901.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2018: growth capex 12567305.60767065; upkeep 31732694.39232935; owner earnings 188867305.60767066. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06654039759415216.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2019: growth capex 8971935.507330962; upkeep 52128064.49266904; owner earnings 191371935.50733095. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.046882190345967786.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 69700000; owner earnings 75800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 85900000; owner earnings 225760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2022: growth capex 15100000; upkeep 125700000; owner earnings 241140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06261922534627187.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 118900000; owner earnings 140100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 122000000; owner earnings 145200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 156500000; owner earnings 138020000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,65400000],[2017,68400000],[2018,68300000],[2019,70600000],[2020,10400000],[2021,133600000],[2022,115000000],[2023,114100000],[2024,115900000],[2025,116600000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 100200000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HWDN.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.40499999999999997 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Foreign currency risk The most significant currencies for the Group are the US Dollar and the Euro.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45/2025-12-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27/reports/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); The Treasury function does not operate as a profit centre and transacts only in relation to theunderlying business requirements. Foreign currency risk The most significant currencies for the Group are the US Dollar and the Euro. It is the Group’s current policy that routine transactional conversion between currencies is completed at the relevant spot exchange rate.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13313418299863156. Price 776.5; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.27407444834508726 → FY2025 0.25604588864730893. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 374.90 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 360.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 383.80 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 377.40 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 427.90 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 433.70 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 463.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 453.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 407.10 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 424.90 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 426.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 431.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 410.10 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 450.30 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 466.80 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 464.30 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 444.10 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 460.80 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 476.70 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 501.20 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 536.20 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 477.10 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 492.70 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 468.90 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 469.10 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 445.30 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 435.60 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 505.40 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 492.70 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 485.30 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 508.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 502.40 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 507.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 555.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 538.20 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 560.40 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 577.40 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 630.60 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 672.60 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 688.40 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 636.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 512.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 525.20 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 589.60 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 552.80 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 490.30 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 562.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 590.60 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 636.80 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 630.80 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 689.60 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 672.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 696.20 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 733.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 808.80 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 797.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 816.60 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 897.20 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 945.60 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 895.80 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 919.80 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 865.60 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 901.20 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 812.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 853.20 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 767.80 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 761.40 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 682.20 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 602.60 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 676.40 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 571.20 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 505.20 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 514.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 585.40 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 561.60 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 690.40 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 716.80 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 698.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 684.60 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 656.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 642.40 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 737.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 739.80 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 736.40 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 637.60 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 732.20 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 813.60 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 802.80 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 827.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 906.80 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 876.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 907.50 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 878.50 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 940.50 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 952.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 907.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 842.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 816.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 793.50 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 820.50 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 773.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 719.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 769.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 860.50 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 856.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 880.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 837.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 843.50 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 863.50 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 841.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 832.50 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 837.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 970.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 791.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 777.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 768.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 837.50 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 788.50 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 794.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 762.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 776.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 370.20 per share, central GBX 485.45 per share, high GBX 562.80 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 393.21 per share, central GBX 486.00 per share, high GBX 561.42 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 433.25 per share, central GBX 573.06 per share, high GBX 665.70 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 511.13 per share, central GBX 715.72 per share, high GBX 833.83 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 420.42 per share, central GBX 482.94 per share, high GBX 550.94 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 700.56 per share, central GBX 985.27 per share, high GBX 1,144.07 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 648.60 per share, central GBX 906.67 per share, high GBX 1,056.95 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 580.32 per share, central GBX 733.28 per share, high GBX 849.75 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 342.74 per share, central GBX 382.55 per share, high GBX 435.54 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 361.52 per share, central GBX 403.79 per share, high GBX 460.06 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:57.527Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45/2025-12-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27/reports/213800KC1LJOJTY3JP45-2025-12-27-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-27, filed 2026-03-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations