# Harworth Group (HWG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HWG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 187.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 34.14 per share, central GBX 37.84 per share, high GBX 42.75 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 37.84 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.2% at the stated quote. About 4.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 1.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.09×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.40×

- FY2021: 1.11×

- FY2022: 0.27×

- FY2023: 0.75×

- FY2024: 0.41×

- FY2025: -0.18×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 21.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 21.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.7%

- FY2017: 1.1%

- FY2018: 1.9%

- FY2019: 2.1%

- FY2020: 3.8%

- FY2021: 14.9%

- FY2022: 6.2%

- FY2023: 6.1%

- FY2024: 8.3%

- FY2025: -1.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.52×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 118M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 226M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -4.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -8.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -54.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 227.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: -0.89×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: -0.02×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1.1% vs 6.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.15 to 0.12 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Market cap gain: GBP 211M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 185M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -3.5%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.12

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 65M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 401M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 1.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.10

- FY2017: GBP 0.15

- FY2018: GBP 0.11

- FY2019: GBP 0.08

- FY2020: GBP 0.08

- FY2021: GBP 0.29

- FY2022: GBP 0.09

- FY2023: GBP 0.12

- FY2024: GBP 0.17

- FY2025: GBP 0.03

### accounting: fail

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 5.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.62×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -5.39×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.3%

- FY2017: 5.2%

- FY2018: 7.5%

- FY2019: -0.3%

- FY2020: 0.8%

- FY2021: 5.8%

- FY2022: -1.2%

- FY2023: 4.3%

- FY2024: 2.2%

- FY2025: 5.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 23.7% a year for ten years · sales -28%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.212Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 23.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -28%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: GBP 34M 

- FY2017: GBP 54M 

- FY2018: GBP 78M 

- FY2019: GBP 85M 

- FY2020: GBP 70M 

- FY2021: GBP 110M 

- FY2022: GBP 167M 

- FY2023: GBP 72M 

- FY2024: GBP 182M 

- FY2025: GBP 131M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 38.0% 

- FY2017: 29.8% 

- FY2018: 31.3% 

- FY2019: 32.5% 

- FY2020: 16.2% 

- FY2021: 44.1% 

- FY2022: 51.2% 

- FY2023: 17.1% 

- FY2024: 17.1% 

- FY2025: 9.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in real estate development; annual sales are GBP 130.7 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2025: revenue 130721000; grossProfit 12308000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9.4% to 17.1% during 2023–25; it earns 3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0070466385699904386],[2017,0.0105506062239292],[2018,0.01885544226755059],[2019,0.02144773820438533],[2020,0.038375675920264724],[2021,0.1491658559860121],[2022,0.06161547387618337],[2023,0.06125349794901197],[2024,0.08321030561812713],[2025,-0.017682496569380077]]; median 0.029911707062325026. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2016: growth capex 23000; upkeep 2000; owner earnings 39901000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0005764266559735345.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2017: growth capex 1000; upkeep 8000; owner earnings 49683000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.000020127609041321982.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1000; owner earnings 34110000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2019: growth capex 115156.57648201159; upkeep 235843.4235179884; owner earnings 25357556.576482013. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.004541312020134231.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 115000; owner earnings 25930200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 32000; owner earnings 94173200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 396000; owner earnings 37731000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); FY2024: growth capex 1647941.9768411443; upkeep 45961058.023158856; owner earnings 11388541.976841144. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14470175200585564.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,2163000],[2017,2492000],[2018,2740000],[2019,3012000],[2020,1077000],[2021,5913000],[2022,4032000],[2023,4438000],[2024,4899000],[2025,5403000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 75.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HWG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 75.896 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 23.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:50.782Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3327304230979925. Price 187; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.02836792894865856 → FY2025 -0.0006322961562734606. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 86.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 91.50 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 90.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 88.88 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 95.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 97.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 104.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 100.50 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 95.50 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 94.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 95.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 106.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 107.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 106.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 108.50 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 111.50 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 105.50 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 110.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 110.50 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 119.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 126.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 126.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 128.50 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 129.50 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 116.50 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 120.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 114.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 116.50 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 116.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 130.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 136.50 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 125.50 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 121.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 132.50 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 128.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 122.50 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 123.50 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 120.50 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 141.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 124.50 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 104.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 96.60 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 94.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 103.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 102.50 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 101.50 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 88.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 90.80 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 104.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 105.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 117.50 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 117.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 127.50 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 128.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 145.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 157.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 154.50 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 175.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 169.50 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 175.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 180.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 185.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 173.50 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 178.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 168.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 161.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 147.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 159.50 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 141.50 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 121.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 103.50 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 106.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 106.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 116.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 123.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 108.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 117.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 118.50 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 105.50 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 113.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 108.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 105.50 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 99.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 109.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 121.50 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 134.50 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 129.50 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 138.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 139.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 138.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 159.50 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 166.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 165.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 193.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 178.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 174.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 170.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 175.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 161.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 172.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 175.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 167.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 180.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 189.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 176.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 170.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 164.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 162.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 167.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 164.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 176.50 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 146.50 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 133.20 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 122.40 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 120.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 130.40 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 176.80 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 187.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 187.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 228.11 per share, central GBX 259.12 per share, high GBX 300.40 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 216.29 per share, central GBX 245.80 per share, high GBX 285.08 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 246.08 per share, central GBX 279.71 per share, high GBX 324.48 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 129.77 per share, central GBX 147.22 per share, high GBX 170.47 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 107.03 per share, central GBX 121.30 per share, high GBX 140.30 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 164.39 per share, central GBX 186.64 per share, high GBX 216.25 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 259.87 per share, central GBX 370.15 per share, high GBX 434.36 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 102.29 per share, central GBX 122.21 per share, high GBX 141.11 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 256.13 per share, central GBX 286.71 per share, high GBX 327.42 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 34.14 per share, central GBX 37.84 per share, high GBX 42.75 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations