# ICF International (ICFI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ICFI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:15.038Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $88.77 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $68.41 per share, central $77.85 per share, high $90.40 per share. Buy at or below the central value $77.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:15.038Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.1% at the stated quote. About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.07×

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 27.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 19.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 34.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 24.5%

- FY2017: 30.7%

- FY2018: 49.7%

- FY2019: 7.5%

- FY2020: 22.0%

- FY2021: 19.9%

- FY2022: 20.5%

- FY2023: 34.2%

- FY2024: 40.0%

- FY2025: 36.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.34×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $564M

- Net income, five-year total: $420M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.17×

- FY2022: 1.40×

- FY2023: 1.46×

- FY2024: 1.29×

- FY2025: 1.40×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 30.7% vs 36.2%

- Per-share earnings: 2.40 to 4.95 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: $507M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $584M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.5%

- Per-share value change: $2.55

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.40

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.95

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.87

- Average buyback yield: 1.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $767M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $715M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 30.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 36.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.40

- FY2017: $3.27

- FY2018: $3.18

- FY2019: $3.59

- FY2020: $2.87

- FY2021: $3.72

- FY2022: $3.38

- FY2023: $4.35

- FY2024: $5.82

- FY2025: $4.95

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 12.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.55×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.0%

- FY2017: -4.9%

- FY2018: -1.1%

- FY2019: -1.6%

- FY2020: -7.1%

- FY2021: -2.1%

- FY2022: -4.7%

- FY2023: -3.5%

- FY2024: -3.0%

- FY2025: -2.5%

## Holders

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 47% since Oct 2024 · "Federal Government Revenue: Declined 25.2% year-on-year." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales -7.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:55.923Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.5% a year for ten years

- 2026-01-13: ICF Secures $300 Million in New European Contracts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/icf-secures-300-million-european-210500923.html))

- 2026-04-08: Defense Counterintelligence Security Agency Awards ICF Position on New $800 Million Digital Modernization BPA ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/defense-counterintelligence-security-agency-awards-200500351.html))

- 2026-05-18: ICF International (ICFI) Is Down 9.1% After Reaffirming 2026 Outlook Despite Softer Q1 Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/icf-international-icfi-down-9-131437139.html))

- 2026-06-30: California Department of Transportation Awards ICF $14 Million to Advance Statewide Infrastructure Projects ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/california-department-transportation-awards-icf-200500190.html))

- 2026-07-21: ICF Awarded New $25 Million Agreement to Deliver Cyber Services to Army Research Lab ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/icf-awarded-25-million-agreement-200500538.html))

- 2026-08-12: ICF International (ICFI) Is Up 5.1% After Reaffirming 2026 Guidance Backed By Robust Backlog ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/icf-international-icfi-5-1-131229876.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -7.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362004/000119312526082536/icfi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $1.2B 

- FY2017: $1.2B 

- FY2018: $1.3B 

- FY2019: $1.5B 

- FY2020: $1.5B 

- FY2021: $1.6B 

- FY2022: $1.8B 

- FY2023: $2.0B 

- FY2024: $2.0B 

- FY2025: $1.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 34.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362004/000119312526082536/icfi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 37.1% 

- FY2017: 37.2% 

- FY2018: 35.9% 

- FY2019: 35.5% 

- FY2020: 35.5% 

- FY2021: 36.9% 

- FY2022: 36.3% 

- FY2023: 35.6% 

- FY2024: 36.5% 

- FY2025: 34.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in consulting services; annual sales are USD 1.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362004/000119312526082536/icfi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 1872851000; grossProfit 637869000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); ICFI.US: ICF International, Inc. provides management, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. The Company provides consulting and technology services across several key domains, such as strategy and public policy; energy and environmental sustainability; and climate resilience; digital transformation including information technology; modernization, cloud, cybersecurity, and data analytics; health and social programs including public health and education; international development and capacity building; disaster management and recovery planning; transportation, aviation, and infrastructure; and marketing and strategic communications. The company serves energy, environment, infrastructure, and disaster recovery; health and social programs; and security and other civilian and commercial markets; U.S. federal government departments and agencies, local government departments and agencies, international governments, and commercial clients. The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc. in 2006. ICF International, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 34.1% to 36.5% during 2023–25; it earns 27.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 35.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 36.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362004/000119312526082536/icfi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 34.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.2445945577427404],[2017,0.30659987215048073],[2018,0.49687728605314924],[2019,0.07521700029982027],[2020,0.2195384959582667],[2021,0.19870614109657303],[2022,0.20520943348406798],[2023,0.34171690408401456],[2024,0.39992498049461145],[2025,0.3623708678119179]]; median 0.27559721494661055. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 36% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362004/000119312526082536/icfi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.36925967516779906],[2022,0.3626713798706041],[2023,0.35564715026909627]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 55.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 13791000; owner earnings 61912000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 14513000; owner earnings 76942000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 21812000; owner earnings 66794000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 26901000; owner earnings 70219000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 17683000; owner earnings 71024000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 19932000; owner earnings 83170000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 24475000; owner earnings 89685000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 22337000; owner earnings 121013000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 21430000; owner earnings 142216000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362004/000119312526082536/icfi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 21659000; owner earnings 128079000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,7915000],[2017,7915000],[2018,7915000],[2019,10540000],[2020,10551000],[2021,10565000],[2022,10547000],[2023,10537000],[2024,10507000],[2025,10356000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362004/000119312526082536/icfi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 55286000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); ICFI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.9 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.02341597207604018. Price 88.77; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.056146061130041 → FY2025 6.917206740116656. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $46.40 per share

- 2016-11: $55.35 per share

- 2016-12: $55.20 per share

- 2017-01: $52.00 per share

- 2017-02: $42.95 per share

- 2017-03: $41.30 per share

- 2017-04: $44.15 per share

- 2017-05: $47.05 per share

- 2017-06: $47.10 per share

- 2017-07: $45.25 per share

- 2017-08: $48.05 per share

- 2017-09: $53.95 per share

- 2017-10: $53.70 per share

- 2017-11: $54.05 per share

- 2017-12: $52.50 per share

- 2018-01: $53.10 per share

- 2018-02: $57.00 per share

- 2018-03: $58.45 per share

- 2018-04: $67.10 per share

- 2018-05: $70.65 per share

- 2018-06: $71.05 per share

- 2018-07: $73.65 per share

- 2018-08: $81.65 per share

- 2018-09: $75.45 per share

- 2018-10: $73.64 per share

- 2018-11: $70.03 per share

- 2018-12: $64.78 per share

- 2019-01: $65.92 per share

- 2019-02: $75.52 per share

- 2019-03: $76.08 per share

- 2019-04: $77.87 per share

- 2019-05: $72.89 per share

- 2019-06: $72.80 per share

- 2019-07: $85.19 per share

- 2019-08: $84.66 per share

- 2019-09: $84.47 per share

- 2019-10: $85.69 per share

- 2019-11: $89.73 per share

- 2019-12: $91.62 per share

- 2020-01: $87.59 per share

- 2020-02: $75.98 per share

- 2020-03: $68.70 per share

- 2020-04: $73.54 per share

- 2020-05: $65.58 per share

- 2020-06: $64.83 per share

- 2020-07: $67.61 per share

- 2020-08: $68.31 per share

- 2020-09: $61.53 per share

- 2020-10: $65.39 per share

- 2020-11: $72.43 per share

- 2020-12: $74.33 per share

- 2021-01: $77.13 per share

- 2021-02: $83.45 per share

- 2021-03: $87.40 per share

- 2021-04: $91.06 per share

- 2021-05: $87.90 per share

- 2021-06: $87.86 per share

- 2021-07: $91.57 per share

- 2021-08: $93.66 per share

- 2021-09: $89.29 per share

- 2021-10: $100.49 per share

- 2021-11: $96.74 per share

- 2021-12: $102.55 per share

- 2022-01: $94.39 per share

- 2022-02: $88.62 per share

- 2022-03: $94.14 per share

- 2022-04: $98.81 per share

- 2022-05: $102.21 per share

- 2022-06: $95.00 per share

- 2022-07: $94.35 per share

- 2022-08: $101.56 per share

- 2022-09: $109.02 per share

- 2022-10: $119.63 per share

- 2022-11: $108.37 per share

- 2022-12: $99.05 per share

- 2023-01: $102.19 per share

- 2023-02: $99.49 per share

- 2023-03: $109.70 per share

- 2023-04: $114.00 per share

- 2023-05: $111.99 per share

- 2023-06: $124.39 per share

- 2023-07: $117.59 per share

- 2023-08: $135.06 per share

- 2023-09: $120.81 per share

- 2023-10: $126.73 per share

- 2023-11: $139.95 per share

- 2023-12: $134.09 per share

- 2024-01: $139.04 per share

- 2024-02: $154.85 per share

- 2024-03: $150.63 per share

- 2024-04: $144.29 per share

- 2024-05: $142.75 per share

- 2024-06: $148.46 per share

- 2024-07: $147.10 per share

- 2024-08: $165.76 per share

- 2024-09: $166.79 per share

- 2024-10: $168.59 per share

- 2024-11: $138.57 per share

- 2024-12: $119.21 per share

- 2025-01: $116.71 per share

- 2025-02: $79.26 per share

- 2025-03: $84.97 per share

- 2025-04: $84.96 per share

- 2025-05: $85.92 per share

- 2025-06: $84.71 per share

- 2025-07: $83.89 per share

- 2025-08: $98.22 per share

- 2025-09: $92.80 per share

- 2025-10: $80.28 per share

- 2025-11: $78.04 per share

- 2025-12: $85.30 per share

- 2026-01: $93.25 per share

- 2026-02: $83.13 per share

- 2026-03: $65.29 per share

- 2026-04: $71.66 per share

- 2026-05: $68.84 per share

- 2026-06: $72.86 per share

- 2026-07: $80.92 per share

- 2026-08: $89.10 per share

- 2026-09: $83.13 per share

- 2026-10: $88.77 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $37.17 per share, central $45.25 per share, high $52.74 per share

- FY2017: low $36.47 per share, central $41.50 per share, high $48.20 per share

- FY2018: low $40.90 per share, central $48.26 per share, high $56.16 per share

- FY2019: low $44.87 per share, central $52.24 per share, high $60.74 per share

- FY2020: low $45.79 per share, central $55.71 per share, high $64.92 per share

- FY2021: low $46.79 per share, central $56.37 per share, high $65.66 per share

- FY2022: low $51.03 per share, central $58.07 per share, high $67.43 per share

- FY2023: low $56.92 per share, central $64.77 per share, high $75.22 per share

- FY2024: low $62.47 per share, central $71.08 per share, high $82.55 per share

- FY2025: low $68.15 per share, central $77.54 per share, high $90.05 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362004/000119312526082536/icfi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): 98,893 ICFI shares; USD 7,205,000 reported position value; 1.15% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.

# ICFI — ICF International Inc.

Held by 1 investor · USD 7,205,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 72.86 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ICFI

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Martin Whitman (https://gigainvestors.com/TA) | USD 7,205,000 | 1.2% | add +37.86% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2018 Q1: USD 8,464,846 · 1 holder · USD 58.45
- 2018 Q2: USD 10,306,868 · 1 holder · USD 71.05
- 2018 Q3: USD 9,550,763 · 2 holders · USD 75.45
- 2018 Q4: USD 8,212,402 · 2 holders · USD 64.80
- 2019 Q1: USD 9,590,552 · 2 holders · USD 76.08
- 2019 Q2: USD 9,149,891 · 2 holders · USD 72.83
- 2019 Q3: USD 10,618,198 · 2 holders · USD 84.48
- 2019 Q4: USD 9,897,617 · 2 holders · USD 91.62
- 2020 Q1: USD 7,446,786 · 2 holders · USD 68.70
- 2020 Q2: USD 6,393,831 · 2 holders · USD 64.84
- 2020 Q3: USD 6,072,035 · 2 holders · USD 61.54
- 2020 Q4: USD 7,464,275 · 2 holders · USD 74.35
- 2021 Q1: USD 8,798,783 · 2 holders · USD 87.41
- 2021 Q2: USD 8,856,343 · 2 holders · USD 87.87
- 2021 Q3: USD 9,013,954 · 2 holders · USD 89.30
- 2021 Q4: USD 9,862,656 · 2 holders · USD 102.55
- 2022 Q1: USD 9,108,970 · 2 holders · USD 94.14
- 2022 Q2: USD 7,309,893 · 2 holders · USD 95.04
- 2022 Q3: USD 8,351,643 · 2 holders · USD 109.05
- 2022 Q4: USD 7,540,225 · 2 holders · USD 99.06
- 2023 Q1: USD 8,360,017 · 2 holders · USD 109.70
- 2023 Q2: USD 8,740,140 · 2 holders · USD 124.42
- 2023 Q3: USD 8,527,153 · 2 holders · USD 120.83
- 2023 Q4: USD 9,491,200 · 2 holders · USD 134.10
- 2024 Q1: USD 8,668,819 · 2 holders · USD 150.62
- 2024 Q2: USD 8,714,894 · 2 holders · USD 148.48
- 2024 Q3: USD 9,530,102 · 2 holders · USD 166.82
- 2024 Q4: USD 6,830,137 · 2 holders · USD 119.24
- 2025 Q1: USD 3,996,100 · 1 holder · USD 84.98
- 2025 Q2: USD 3,982,933 · 1 holder · USD 84.70
- 2025 Q3: USD 4,442,828 · 1 holder · USD 94.48
- 2025 Q4: USD 4,508,771 · 1 holder · USD 85.29
- 2026 Q1: USD 4,683,643 · 1 holder · USD 65.29
- 2026 Q2: USD 7,205,000 · 1 holder · USD 72.86