# Infratil (IFT.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/IFT.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: NZD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 10.49 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 6.40 per share, central AUD 7.25 per share, high AUD 8.39 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 7.25 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.7% at the stated quote. About 7.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.81×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.38×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: -0.03×

- FY2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 59.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 59.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 70.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 10.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 14.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.8%

- FY2018: 4.7%

- FY2019: 4.5%

- FY2020: 1.4%

- FY2021: 0.7%

- FY2022: 3.6%

- FY2023: 13.0%

- FY2024: 3.0%

- FY2025: -0.8%

- FY2026: 1.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.81×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: NZD 2.4B

- Net income, five-year total: NZD 2.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -11.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -19.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 0.86×

- FY2025: 1.82×

- FY2026: 0.77×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.7% vs 1.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.12 to 0.67 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.9%

- Market cap gain: NZD 8.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: NZD 2.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 24.3%

- Per-share value change: NZD 0.55

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: NZD 0.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: NZD 0.67

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.80

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: NZD 5.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: NZD 3.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 1.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: NZD 0.12

- FY2018: NZD 0.11

- FY2019: NZD -0.03

- FY2020: NZD 0.35

- FY2021: NZD -0.07

- FY2022: NZD 1.62

- FY2023: NZD 0.77

- FY2024: NZD 1.03

- FY2025: NZD -0.33

- FY2026: NZD 0.67

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: 2.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.51×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.35×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.71×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.6%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -4.4%

- FY2020: 1.9%

- FY2021: -1.5%

- FY2022: 11.0%

- FY2023: 6.2%

- FY2024: 2.5%

- FY2025: -3.9%

- FY2026: 2.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 20% since May 2026 · sales -11.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.726Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -11.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: NZD 1.8B 

- FY2018: NZD 1.7B 

- FY2019: NZD 1.3B 

- FY2020: NZD 1.3B 

- FY2021: NZD 1.1B 

- FY2022: NZD 1.3B 

- FY2023: NZD 1.8B 

- FY2024: NZD 3.1B 

- FY2025: NZD 3.3B 

- FY2026: NZD 3.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 10.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 76.2% 

- FY2018: 77.6% 

- FY2019: 82.4% 

- FY2020: 83.8% 

- FY2021: 42.6% 

- FY2022: 44.1% 

- FY2023: 63.9% 

- FY2024: 44.8% 

- FY2025: 93.3% 

- FY2026: 10.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are NZD 3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2026: revenue 2967047033; grossProfit 320416099; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.8% to 93.3% during 2024–26; it earns 3.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 93.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.0579453167527858],[2018,0.04650883853764088],[2019,0.045132267370788716],[2020,0.014343944506150848],[2021,0.007387853949329359],[2022,0.03583377171467405],[2023,0.12996356147690968],[2024,0.03012772753912806],[2025,-0.008239247157952581],[2026,0.01587039725016122]]; median 0.032980749626901056. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back NZD 108.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 119800000; owner earnings 132800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 233600000; owner earnings 20700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2022: growth capex 30300000; upkeep 91400000; owner earnings 1119440000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02706710498106196.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2023: growth capex 56800000; upkeep 107600000; owner earnings 601460000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09443687028231304.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 436500000; owner earnings 737454272. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 447132053; owner earnings 426256977. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,82900000],[2018,89600000],[2019,212800000],[2020,206000000],[2021,183000000],[2022,188500000],[2023,258100000],[2024,208200000],[2025,188700000],[2026,195300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 108700000 NZD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); IFT.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.321 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.6% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 5.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:35.520Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06771892427044912. Price 10.49; FX 0.8124078517533463; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.882699459915965 → FY2026 0.512310301961867. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 2.63 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 2.67 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 2.58 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 2.80 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 2.70 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 2.60 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 2.77 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 2.84 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 2.77 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 2.87 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 2.83 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 2.82 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 2.80 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 2.87 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 2.92 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 2.87 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 2.86 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 2.87 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 2.96 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 3.13 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 3.09 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 3.12 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 3.06 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 3.27 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 3.12 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 3.31 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 3.56 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 3.58 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 3.79 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 4.09 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 4.08 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 4.03 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 4.44 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 4.39 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 4.30 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 4.45 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 4.47 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 4.57 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 4.94 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 5.17 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 4.76 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 3.95 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 4.29 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 4.53 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 4.32 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 4.53 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 4.55 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 4.62 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 5.15 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 5.68 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 6.91 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 6.80 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 6.90 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 6.47 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 6.53 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 7.20 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 7.20 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 6.89 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 7.15 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 7.60 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 7.77 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 7.61 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 7.75 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 7.14 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 7.44 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 7.49 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 7.57 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 7.01 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 7.05 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 7.85 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 8.07 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 7.55 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 7.87 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 8.33 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 7.87 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 8.15 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 8.03 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 8.70 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 8.87 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 9.14 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 9.42 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 9.36 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 9.27 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 9.45 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 9.04 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 9.18 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 9.31 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 9.88 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 9.72 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 9.92 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 10.00 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 9.85 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 10.34 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 9.82 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 10.14 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 11.41 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 11.50 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 11.63 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 11.57 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 10.26 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 9.73 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 9.33 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 9.79 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 9.72 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 9.79 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 10.70 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 10.24 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 10.73 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 10.84 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 10.15 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 9.74 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 9.53 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 9.38 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 9.62 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 10.20 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 13.14 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 12.61 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 12.44 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 11.84 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 11.40 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 10.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 2.75 per share, central AUD 3.04 per share, high AUD 3.42 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 2.56 per share, central AUD 2.96 per share, high AUD 3.37 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 1.84 per share, central AUD 2.02 per share, high AUD 2.27 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 1.02 per share, central AUD 1.05 per share, high AUD 1.08 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 8.00 per share, central AUD 9.09 per share, high AUD 10.53 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 8.34 per share, central AUD 9.47 per share, high AUD 10.97 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 7.69 per share, central AUD 8.71 per share, high AUD 10.08 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations