# InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/IHG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:35.506Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $166.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $55.27 per share, central $62.20 per share, high $71.43 per share. Buy at or below the central value $62.20 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:35.506Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.4% at the stated quote. About 5.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.43×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.41×

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.18×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.23×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.23×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 70.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 29.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 27.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 29.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 3

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 79.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 97.4%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: 70.8%

- FY2019: 69.8%

- FY2020: 23.6%

- FY2021: 29.6%

- FY2022: 48.7%

- FY2023: 64.7%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.49×

- FY2022: 0.82×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.05×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 97.4% vs 109.2%

- Per-share earnings: 2.20 to 3.91 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.5%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.4%

- Per-share value change: $1.70

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.20

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.91

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.29

- Average buyback yield: 2.0%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 97.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.75

- FY2017: $2.20

- FY2018: $1.49

- FY2019: $1.58

- FY2020: -$1.04

- FY2021: $1.07

- FY2022: $1.74

- FY2023: $3.58

- FY2024: $3.91

- FY2025: $4.98

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.43×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.18×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11.4%

- FY2017: -1.0%

- FY2018: -8.1%

- FY2019: -11.4%

- FY2020: -8.0%

- FY2021: -7.8%

- FY2022: -9.6%

- FY2023: -3.0%

- FY2024: 1.2%

- FY2025: -2.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 14% a year for ten years · sales +5.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.458Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +5.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31/reports/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: $1.4B 

- FY2017: $3.0B 

- FY2018: $3.4B 

- FY2019: $3.5B 

- FY2020: $1.8B 

- FY2021: $2.9B 

- FY2022: $3.9B 

- FY2023: $4.6B 

- FY2024: $4.9B 

- FY2025: $5.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 30.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31/reports/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: 60.0% 

- FY2017: 25.7% 

- FY2018: 22.7% 

- FY2019: 24.6% 

- FY2020: 17.8% 

- FY2021: 27.8% 

- FY2022: 26.3% 

- FY2023: 29.7% 

- FY2024: 29.6% 

- FY2025: 30.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in lodging; annual sales are USD 5.2 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31/reports/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: revenue 5189000000; grossProfit 1591000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); IHG.LSE: InterContinental Hotels Group PLC owns, manages, franchises, and leases hotels in the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates hotels under the Six Senses, Regent, InterContinental Hotels & Resorts, Vignette Collection, Kimpton Hotel, Hotel Indigo, voco, Ruby, HUALUXE, Crowne Plaza, Iberostar Beachfront Resorts, EVEN Hotels, Holiday Inn Express, Holiday Inn, Garner, avid hotels, Atwell Suites, Staybridge Suites, IHG, Holiday Inn Club Vacations, and Candlewood Suites brand names. The company also provides IHG Rewards loyalty program. InterContinental Hotels Group PLC was formerly known as Six Continents PLC and changed its name to InterContinental Hotels Group PLC in June 2003. The company was founded in 1777 and is headquartered in Windsor, United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.6% to 30.7% during 2023–25; it earns 70.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 29.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 29.6%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31/reports/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.9741787562951171],[2017,2.0190811606391925],[2018,0.7079519789928189],[2019,0.6981785542671152],[2020,0.23606508875739646],[2021,0.2960815892661749],[2022,0.4865780771102996],[2023,0.6469492531211533],[2024,31.123982822552037],[2025,1.0923441398301734]]; median 0.703065266629967. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 907 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 25897312; owner earnings 386841098. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 32526340; owner earnings 424320890. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 36118096; owner earnings 328203568. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2019: growth capex 15560459.27063492; upkeep 163439540.72936508; owner earnings 82744818.27063492. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18805357961801372.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 12575824; owner earnings 292398846. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 99000000; owner earnings 253006978. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 21995286; owner earnings 599796072. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 23179601; owner earnings 637918408. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31/reports/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 28000000; owner earnings 796800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,1370129663],[2017,438366355],[2018,156250024],[2019,721000000],[2020,233000000],[2021,233000000],[2022,233000000],[2023,192458758],[2024,207017824],[2025,270000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31/reports/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: cash repurchases 907000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); IHG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.101 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 0.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18980152523368365. Price 166.8; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.778897585463209 → FY2025 5.219441897026071. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $48.55 per share

- 2016-12: $53.84 per share

- 2017-01: $54.46 per share

- 2017-02: $56.17 per share

- 2017-03: $57.83 per share

- 2017-04: $60.61 per share

- 2017-05: $61.96 per share

- 2017-06: $60.46 per share

- 2017-07: $60.80 per share

- 2017-08: $54.63 per share

- 2017-09: $55.94 per share

- 2017-10: $59.11 per share

- 2017-11: $61.62 per share

- 2017-12: $66.86 per share

- 2018-01: $66.76 per share

- 2018-02: $66.58 per share

- 2018-03: $60.47 per share

- 2018-04: $65.02 per share

- 2018-05: $68.21 per share

- 2018-06: $66.87 per share

- 2018-07: $66.69 per share

- 2018-08: $67.37 per share

- 2018-09: $67.73 per share

- 2018-10: $58.23 per share

- 2018-11: $59.51 per share

- 2018-12: $60.03 per share

- 2019-01: $58.42 per share

- 2019-02: $60.70 per share

- 2019-03: $62.12 per share

- 2019-04: $66.87 per share

- 2019-05: $68.71 per share

- 2019-06: $69.62 per share

- 2019-07: $76.98 per share

- 2019-08: $68.98 per share

- 2019-09: $68.31 per share

- 2019-10: $62.72 per share

- 2019-11: $67.39 per share

- 2019-12: $70.10 per share

- 2020-01: $63.07 per share

- 2020-02: $57.90 per share

- 2020-03: $47.32 per share

- 2020-04: $48.56 per share

- 2020-05: $52.10 per share

- 2020-06: $48.01 per share

- 2020-07: $47.33 per share

- 2020-08: $59.30 per share

- 2020-09: $55.11 per share

- 2020-10: $52.71 per share

- 2020-11: $62.49 per share

- 2020-12: $63.13 per share

- 2021-01: $60.85 per share

- 2021-02: $67.33 per share

- 2021-03: $66.96 per share

- 2021-04: $69.35 per share

- 2021-05: $66.24 per share

- 2021-06: $64.74 per share

- 2021-07: $63.95 per share

- 2021-08: $62.36 per share

- 2021-09: $64.02 per share

- 2021-10: $68.89 per share

- 2021-11: $59.88 per share

- 2021-12: $64.35 per share

- 2022-01: $65.43 per share

- 2022-02: $70.48 per share

- 2022-03: $69.86 per share

- 2022-04: $69.62 per share

- 2022-05: $66.38 per share

- 2022-06: $58.55 per share

- 2022-07: $65.24 per share

- 2022-08: $63.14 per share

- 2022-09: $58.81 per share

- 2022-10: $63.21 per share

- 2022-11: $64.57 per share

- 2022-12: $63.85 per share

- 2023-01: $75.35 per share

- 2023-02: $75.46 per share

- 2023-03: $71.50 per share

- 2023-04: $73.49 per share

- 2023-05: $70.91 per share

- 2023-06: $73.14 per share

- 2023-07: $77.48 per share

- 2023-08: $80.14 per share

- 2023-09: $81.76 per share

- 2023-10: $78.20 per share

- 2023-11: $82.32 per share

- 2023-12: $95.43 per share

- 2024-01: $100.95 per share

- 2024-02: $112.79 per share

- 2024-03: $110.94 per share

- 2024-04: $105.69 per share

- 2024-05: $106.33 per share

- 2024-06: $112.07 per share

- 2024-07: $105.53 per share

- 2024-08: $102.08 per share

- 2024-09: $109.51 per share

- 2024-10: $115.24 per share

- 2024-11: $131.91 per share

- 2024-12: $133.98 per share

- 2025-01: $145.64 per share

- 2025-02: $133.63 per share

- 2025-03: $111.07 per share

- 2025-04: $106.90 per share

- 2025-05: $114.33 per share

- 2025-06: $111.77 per share

- 2025-07: $117.96 per share

- 2025-08: $120.49 per share

- 2025-09: $120.79 per share

- 2025-10: $123.72 per share

- 2025-11: $134.80 per share

- 2025-12: $140.79 per share

- 2026-01: $134.80 per share

- 2026-02: $137.50 per share

- 2026-03: $130.40 per share

- 2026-04: $143.10 per share

- 2026-05: $154.15 per share

- 2026-06: $172.25 per share

- 2026-07: $160.70 per share

- 2026-08: $162.65 per share

- 2026-09: $161.55 per share

- 2026-10: $158.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $22.86 per share, central $25.91 per share, high $29.97 per share

- FY2017: low $39.83 per share, central $45.27 per share, high $52.50 per share

- FY2018: low $47.25 per share, central $53.29 per share, high $61.33 per share

- FY2019: low $29.66 per share, central $33.69 per share, high $39.06 per share

- FY2020: low $16.63 per share, central $18.02 per share, high $19.88 per share

- FY2021: low $22.17 per share, central $24.46 per share, high $27.51 per share

- FY2022: low $19.62 per share, central $21.77 per share, high $24.62 per share

- FY2023: low $25.73 per share, central $28.48 per share, high $32.15 per share

- FY2024: low $38.11 per share, central $42.76 per share, high $48.94 per share

- FY2025: low $54.88 per share, central $61.52 per share, high $70.35 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:22.025Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31/reports/2138007ZFQYRUSLU3J98-2025-12-31-T01.html); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations